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January 19, 2023U.S.-China RelationsUS-China Trade is Close to a Record, Defying Talk of Decoupling Trade between the US and China is on track to break records, a signal of resilient links between the world’s top economies amid the heated national security rhetoric in Washington and fears of “decoupling.” US government data through November suggest that imports and exports in 2022 will add up to an all-time high, or at least come very close, when the final report comes out Feb. 7. Beijing just published its own full-year figures that show record trade of around $760 billion. Trade between the US and China is on track to break records, a signal of resilient links between the world’s top economies amid the heated national security rhetoric in Washington and fears of “decoupling.” US government data through November suggest that imports and exports in 2022 will add up to an all-time high, or at least come very close, when the final report comes out Feb. 7. Beijing just published its own full-year figures that show record trade of around $760 billion. BloombergUS-China Relations Pursue an Ominous Path In late 2022, Germany’s domestic intelligence chief, Thomas Haldenwang, put it well: “Russia is the storm,” he told German parliamentarians. “China is climate change.” Last year was also the first time the US administration acted as if it truly believed that distinction. Though most of president Joe Biden’s attention was directed at Russia following its invasion of Ukraine in February, his most consequential steps in 2022 targeted China. The uncertainty is no longer about whether US-China decoupling will happen but how far it will go. Much of the answer will become clear in 2023. Financial TimesBlinken to Test Limits of China’s Diplomatic Engagement on Feb 5-6 Beijing Trip Secretary of State Antony Blinken will meet in Beijing with his counterpart, Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang, on Feb. 5-6, Washington-based diplomats familiar with Blinken’s travel plans told POLITICO. Blinken’s much-anticipated China trip is a follow-up to President Joe Biden’s meeting with China’s paramount leader, Xi Jinping, in Indonesia in November at which Biden pledged to “maintain open lines of communication” with Beijing at a time of worsening bilateral tensions. The visit is a test of whether the Biden-Xi meeting has paved the way for more productive U.S.-China ties at a time when the relationship has become increasingly rancorous over issues ranging from Taiwan and trade policy to U.S. concerns about Beijing’s human rights record. PoliticoIndustrial Espionage: How China Sneaks out America’s Technology Secrets According to a Department of Justice (DOJ) indictment, the US citizen hid confidential files stolen from his employers in the binary code of a digital photograph of a sunset, which Mr Zheng then mailed to himself. It was a technique called steganography, a means of hiding a data file within the code of another data file. Mr Zheng utilised it on multiple occasions to take sensitive files from GE. GE is a multinational conglomerate known for its work in the healthcare, energy and aerospace sectors, making everything from refrigerators to aircraft engines. The information Zheng stole was related to the design and manufacture of gas and steam turbines, including turbine blades and turbine seals. Considered to be worth millions, it was sent to his accomplice in China. BBCRussia-China RelationsSouth Africa Confirms Naval Drills with Russia and China      South Africa on Thursday confirmed plans to conduct joint military exercises with the Russian and Chinese navies off its east coast next month. The South African National Defense Force said the war games were meant to “strengthen the already flourishing relations between South Africa, Russia and China.” It said the exercises would take place in the port cities of Durban and Richards Bay and involve 350 South African soldiers. The drills are being called “Operation Mosi,” which means smoke in Tswana — one of 11 official languages in South Africa. The exercises are set to run from February 17 to 26, a year after Russia invaded Ukraine. DWCCP Foreign InfluenceNavy Intel Chief: China Building for War ‘in Every Area’ China’s military is engaged in an alarming buildup of forces in “every warfare area,” the chief of Navy intelligence said in recent remarks. “The military modernization in China in general, not just in the maritime area, is one of the fastest we’ve seen in human history, [and] it goes well beyond what China needs for its defense,” Rear Adm. Michael Studeman told the Intelligence and National Security Alliance, a private group on Jan. 11. “So, what you’ve seen is a buildup in every warfare area.” Chinese military capabilities now include advanced missiles and other long-range weapons, electronic warfare arms, innovative weapons technology and a blue-water navy armed with large warships and smaller vessels capable of “coercion around Taiwan,” he said. The Washington TimesBeijing’s BRI Influence over the UN Human Rights Council As a United Nations Human Rights Council (HRC) member state, China has a responsibility to promote and protect human rights globally. Yet through its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Beijing has used economic coercion, inducement, harassment and manipulation to undermine the international human rights framework. This poses a serious threat to the effectiveness of the HRC. Beijing prioritises ‘people-centred development’ over universally recognised human rights. But China’s high-modernist development at home involves human rights violations that have disempowering impacts on marginalised peoples. This is evident in the Tibet Autonomous Region and in the unfolding genocide in the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region (XUAR). East Asia ForumAfter Zero-COVID ends, Chinese activists Abroad dig in for Long Haul The newfound political fervor that sent protesters to the streets in China over Beijing’s zero-COVID policy is helping Chinese activists worldwide grow their bases and forge stronger ties with other pro-democracy protesters, organizers based abroad told Axios. AxiosChinese Students made to sign ‘Loyalty Pledges’ to CCP before going to Sweden Several Swedish universities reportedly discovered that over two dozen doctoral students from China were made to sign an agreement pledging their loyalty to the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) before arriving in Sweden. Swedish newspaper Dagens Nyheter published a report last week detailing the documents it obtained. The news outlet stated that over 30 students had signed letters before traveling to Sweden through the Chinese Scholarship Council (CSC) run by China’s Ministry of Education, which supports international academic exchange with other universities globally. Yahoo NewsCOVID-19Why China Dumped its ‘Zero Covid’ Policy so suddenly – and disastrously Up until the last minute before China relaxed three years of severe covid restrictions, officials and state media were hailing the country’s “unswerving” commitment to a strict containment strategy and the “significant advantages of our socialist system.” That same system then witnessed a chaotic reopening, with the abrupt abandonment of lockdowns, mass testing, quarantines and contact tracing. Sick patients have since overwhelmed hospitals, and funeral homes and crematoriums have been mobbed, while relatives outside China scrambled to send basic medications that were suddenly nowhere to be found. The Washington PostChina Announces Lunar New Year Censors Crackdown to Silence Covid ‘rumours’ Chinese cyber authorities have announced an internet censorship crackdown to ensure there are no “gloomy sentiments” caused by pandemic “rumours” during the lunar new year festival. It comes as health forecasting firm Airfinity estimated more than 600,000 people have likely died since zero-Covid restrictions were lifted in December – 10 times more than Chinese authorities have officially declared. The month-long “Spring Festival online improvement” program will target those spreading what authorities deem to be “rumours” about the spread of Covid and patient experiences. The national cyber administration specified “in-depth rectification of false information and other issues to prevent gloomy sentiments”. The GuardianDavos 2023: Moderna CEO in talks with China to Supply COVID Vaccines Moderna chief executive Stephane Bancel said on Wednesday the U.S. company was in active discussions to supply COVID-19 vaccines to China. Speaking to Reuters on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum annual meeting in Davos, he said the talks with Beijing also covered the topic of factories, and other products including cancer treatments. “What I really want to understand is how do we help the Chinese government as to what are the needs they have from a healthcare standpoint,” he said. ReutersHong KongThe British Government is Abandoning Jimmy Lai, a British Citizen, to Beijing’s Prisons The tragic execution of Alireza Akbari in Iran raises serious questions about what more our government should do to help British nationals in trouble with repressive regimes. Right now in Hong Kong, another British national, Jimmy Lai, faces the possibility of spending the remaining years of his life behind bars. The 75 year-old entrepreneur, publisher and pro-democracy campaigner has already been in jail for over three years, on multiple fabricated charges. On Human Rights Day, 10 December, last year, Mr Lai was sentenced to almost six years on trumped-up fraud charges. The TelegraphHong Kong Police Arrest Six for Selling ‘Seditious’ Book at Lunar New Year Fair Police in Hong Kong have raided a lunar new year shopping fair and arrested six people for selling a “seditious” book related to the 2019 anti-government protests in a move critics say has spread “terror” just days before the celebrations. National security officers accused three men and three women, aged between 18 and 62, of producing and publishing “a seditious book about a series of riots that occurred in Hong Kong from June 2019 to February 2020”, and selling it in a lunar new year stall in a shopping centre in Mong Kok, a bustling shopping district. Police said they were “members of an anti-government organisation” and held them in custody on suspicion of engaging in “acts with seditious intention”. Alan Keung, the founder of the independent news outlet Free HK Media, was among those arrested, local media reported. The GuardianTaiwanTaiwan Foreign Ministry to Continue Keeping Tabs on US-China Exchanges The Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA) is keeping tabs on high-level exchanges between the U.S. and China, MOFA deputy spokesperson Hsiao Kuang-wei (蕭光偉) said on Wednesday (Jan. 18). Hsiao made the remark following news that U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken is set to visit Beijing in early February to hold talks with Chinese officials. He will be the second U.S. Secretary of State to visit China after then-Secretary of State Mike Pompeo went in October 2018.Hsiao said currently, mutual trust between Taiwan and the U.S. is good and communication channels are open, per CNA. MOFA will continue to maintain close contact with Washington, he added. Taiwan NewsTaiwan to Allow Women into Military Reserve Force Training as China Fears Grow Taiwan’s military on Tuesday rolled out plans to allow women to volunteer for reserve force training for the first time, as China continues to ramp up military pressure on the democratic self-ruled island. The Taiwanese Defense Ministry said it will allow 220 discharged female soldiers to enroll in the training starting from the second quarter of this year. Maj. Gen. Yu Wen-cheng, from the ministry’s All-Out Defense Mobilization Agency, said the move would be on a trial basis for this year. CNNXinjiangCCP Monitored Tours to Xinjiang won’t help China. Turkey Talking, More Muslim Nations can Join As the reports of concentration camps and atrocities of the CCP on Uyghur Muslims appeared in western media, democracies became anxious about the fate of Uyghurs under Xi’s rule. They disapproved of CCP’s policy of cultural aggression. Some western democracies even imposed sanctions on some CCP officials and banned cotton imports from Xinjiang—made by forced labour. A United Nations Human Rights Commission report termed China’s actions as a genocide. On the other hand, China used its economic and political clout over the Islamic world to help Beijing consolidate its voice on the Uyghur issue on global fora, such as the United Nations (UN). A recent example was on 6 October 2022, when most Muslim countries voted against the UN resolution to discuss human rights in Xinjiang in 2023. The PrintThe China Debrief is a resource of the Victims of Communism Memorial Foundation. Do you know someone who would be interested in this content? Share this link with them so they can subscribe.

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U.S.-China Relations

A roadmap for US-China relations in 2023 China’s leaders confront mounting domestic social, economic, and public health-related stresses in 2023. If past is prologue, it is reasonable to expect China’s leaders will respond by seeking to calm their external environment to concentrate on challenges at home. To help counter scrutiny of their domestic governance record, they will want to present an image to their people of being afforded dignity and respect abroad. Nowhere will such symbolism matter more than in the U.S.-China context. How China’s leaders are seen to be managing relations with the United States often is a factor in how their performance is perceived at home. Even as the broadly competitive framework of the U.S.-China relationship is unlikely to change, opportunities may emerge for the United States to advance discrete affirmative priorities with China in the year ahead. Brookings Institute‘We’re in a space race’: NASA sounds alarm at Chinese designs on moon The US is locked in a space race with China and the country needs to “watch out” that its rival does not gain a foothold and try to dominate lunar resources, Nasa’s top official has warned. The assessment came from the Nasa administrator, Bill Nelson, a former astronaut and Florida senator, who went on to warn that China could eventually claim to “own” the moon’s resource-rich areas. The contest between the US and China, he added, was intensifying and the next two years could determine which country achieves an advantage. “It is a fact: we’re in a space race,” Nelson told Politico. “And it is true that we better watch out that they don’t get to a place on the moon under the guise of scientific research. And it is not beyond the realm of possibility that they say, ‘Keep out, we’re here, this is our territory.’” The GuardianUS Computer Giant Dell to Replace all China-made chips in its products by 2024 amid tensions between Beijing and Washington Personal computer (PC) giant Dell Technologies plans to stop using China-made semiconductors by 2024 and urged its suppliers to cut down on components sourced from that country amid concerns over escalating tensions between Beijing and Washington. That initiative by Dell, which was ranked by research firm IDC as the world’s third-largest PC vendor in the third quarter last year, forms part of the Texas-based company’s efforts to diversify its manufacturing supply chain outside China, according to a report on Thursday by Nikkei Asia, which cited people with direct knowledge of the matter. Dell’s goal is to have all of the chips used in its products, including those produced by foreign suppliers in China, to be sourced from outside the country by 2024, the report said. South China Morning Post

Russia-China Relations

Russia sends more Arctic oil to China, India after sanctions Russia is sending more crude oil produced in the Arctic region to China and India, and at steeper discounts, after Europe slammed its doors shut on Russian supplies last month, trade sources and data show. Arctic grades Arco, Arco/Novy Port and Varandey do not normally head East but are now finding new homes further afield after the European Union, G7 nations and Australia introduced a price cap on Russian oil in December, on top of an EU embargo on Russian crude by sea. Sellers are selling the Russian crudes at bigger discounts as they absorb higher shipping costs. ReutersExpect the Unexpected in 2023: Cyberattacks and the Next Covid With the new year upon us, the big worries for global security are pretty obvious. We should be concerned about a springtime escalation in the Russia-Ukraine war, with the potential for Russian leader Vladimir Putin, in increasing desperation, to use a tactical nuclear weapon. While highly unlikely, a nuclear yield could further distort the world’s military, economic and diplomatic foundations. A second clear danger is a Chinese attack on Taiwan, which would be even more seismic — in regard to everything from a huge impact on the manufacture of high-end microchips to reordering global trading patterns as sanctions are levied against Beijing. US policymakers and analysts will spend a great deal of time anticipating and planning for these dramatic, low-likelihood scenarios. … Yet what things are swimming just beneath the surface that could end up creating unexpected global turmoil? What are we failing to foresee? BloombergChina, Russia to Boost Ties ‘At All Levels’ in 2023 Despite U.S Pressure Determined to thwart the ongoing efforts of the United States to simultaneously counter both of its top rivals, China and Russia have made a joint resolution to increase their cooperation on a variety of fronts in the New Year. A month and a half after meeting with President Joe Biden on the sidelines of the G20 in a bid to stabilize relations between the two top powers, Chinese President Xi Jinping spoke with his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin late last month. While Xi emphasized China’s “objective and just” stance on Russia’s war in Ukraine, a conflict Beijing has refused to condemn or support, both leaders reiterated their desire to further develop ties throughout 2023. Newsweek

CCP Foreign Influence

Japan says it scrambled to monitor Chinese aircraft carrier operations Japan said on Monday it scrambled jet fighters and dispatched aircraft and warships over the past two weeks to keep tabs on China’s Liaoning aircraft carrier and five warships that conducted naval manoeuvres and flight operations in the Pacific. ReutersChina and Philippines agree to ‘manage differences’ on South China Sea Chinese leader Xi Jinping and his Philippine counterpart Ferdinand Marcos Jr. have agreed to strengthen economic ties and resume talks on oil exploration, as they look to revive their economies amid the pandemic downturn and friction over contested areas of the South China Sea. Xi met with Marcos Jr. on Wednesday during the Philippine President’s first state visit to Beijing, where the two leaders agreed to “appropriately manage differences,” according to a joint statement released Thursday. CNN

COVID-19

China has under-represented its number of Covid deaths, says WHO The World Health Organization has accused China of under-representing the severity of its coronavirus outbreak and the real number of deaths, in its strongest rebuke yet of Beijing’s handling of the pandemic. “We believe the current numbers being published from China under-represent the true impact of the disease in terms of hospital admissions, in terms of ICU [intensive care unit] admissions, particularly in terms of deaths,” Mike Ryan, head of the WHO’s emergencies programme, told reporters on Wednesday. Beijing’s definition of Covid-19 death, which was changed last month, was “too narrow”, Ryan said, as he called on Beijing to offer greater transparency on the extent of the surge in cases since President Xi Jinping brought an abrupt end to the draconian zero-Covid system of controls. Financial TimesChina’s Covid generation: the surging inequality behind Xi’s U-turn In late September, Tashi, a student in a rural village of fewer than 100 people in south-eastern Tibet, returned to school after a six-week lockdown. The 15-year-old’s grades had deteriorated markedly after weeks of trying to take classes on a smartphone with patchy internet in a crowded house while being cared for by ageing grandparents. His parents were 750km away in Lhasa, the capital, working. “It was very difficult to concentrate during the lockdown. My three younger siblings were also taking classes in a noisy house,” he says, sitting next to baskets of dried fungi and herbal medicines, which are his village’s main trade. “Now we’re back at school, I’m still lagging behind after months of trying. It’s very demoralising.” Financial Times

Hong Kong

Hong Kong Reopening with China Comes with 60,000 Person Cap The border between mainland China and Hong Kong will gradually reopen from Sunday, paving the way for a restoration of economic and social ties that have been disrupted for three years. But recovery is likely to be slow, with Hong Kong setting a maximum limit of about 60,000 people allowed to travel into the mainland from the financial hub every day — a fraction of pre-pandemic flows. Those coming from the mainland will also need to show a 48-hour negative PCR test result, while some land border control points, including Lo Wu, will stay shut for now. BloombergHong Kong’s human rights lawyers are fleeing abroad amid an effort to cleanse the city of dissent Anonymous threats sent by text message and email. GPS tracking devices placed under a car, and Chinese “funeral money” sent to an office. Ambushes by reporters working for state-controlled media. Accusations of disloyalty in the press. These are some of the methods deployed in a campaign of intimidation being waged against lawyers in Hong Kong who take on human rights cases, have criticized a China-imposed national security law or raised alarms about threats to the rule of law. While some of Hong Kong’s leading rights lawyers have been detained in the past two-and-a-half years, many others have become the target of a more insidious effort to cleanse the city of dissent – part of a wider crackdown by the ruling Communist Party on lawyers across China, say activists, legal scholars and diplomats. Reuters

Taiwan

US to send delegation of trade and economic officials to Taiwan The US is sending a delegation of trade and economic officials to Taiwan next week, as President Joe Biden’s administration seeks to bolster the commercial relationship with the country. The Office of the US Trade Representative announced on Wednesday that Terry McCartin, its top official responsible for trade with China, would lead a delegation to Taiwan from January 14-17. The USTR said officials from other government agencies would also be present. Beijing is opposed to a trade initiative between Taipei and Washington. Financial TimesExclusive: Paraguay election race puts Taiwan ties on a knife-edge Paraguay would cut diplomatic ties with Taiwan and open relations with China if the opposition wins the election in April, its presidential candidate Efrain Alegre told Reuters, hoping to boost soy and beef exports that are its main economic engines. The ruling party candidate, meanwhile, told Reuters he would maintain ties with Taiwan, a self-governed island that China considers one of its provinces and not a county, making the geopolitical question a centerpiece of the election race. Reuters

Xinjiang

Turkey won’t extradite Uyghurs to China, foreign minister says Turkey’s Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said his country will not give in to pressure from China to extradite Uyghurs who have Turkish citizenship, even if it has strained their relationship. “Turkish-Chinese ties have suffered over Beijing being disturbed by our attitude on the Turkic Uyghurs issue,” Cavusoglu told reporters at a year-end press briefing in Ankara on Dec. 29, according to Turkish media reports. “They have extradition requests for people who are our citizens, who live in Turkey all the time. Therefore, we don’t grant any such requests,” he said. Turkey has been one of the most hospitable countries to Uyghurs, with whom Turks share ethnic, religious and linguistic connections. Roughly 50,000 Uyghurs live in Turkey, forming the largest Uyghur diaspora outside Central Asia. Radio Free Asia

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U.S.-China Relations Chinese President Xi Jinping’s speech on the opening day of this week’s ruling party meeting charts a course for ongoing tense relations with the U.S. hinged to a dark vision of a China beset by “external attempts to suppress and contain” it. Xi outlined an aggressive foreign policy on Sunday as he detailed his “work report,” a document that sets out domestic and foreign policy priorities for the Chinese Communist Party for the next five years. “We will resolutely safeguard the security of China’s state power, systems and ideology — and build up security capacity in key areas,” Xi said. “We will crack down hard on infiltration, sabotage, subversion, and separatist activities by hostile forces.” The head of the US Navy has warned that the American military must be prepared for the possibility of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan before 2024, as Washington grows increasingly alarmed about the threat to the island. Admiral Mike Gilday, chief of naval operations, said the US had to consider that China could take action against Taiwan much sooner than even the more pessimistic warnings. The debate in the US about when China might invade Taiwan has intensified since Admiral Philip Davidson, then-head of Indo-Pacific Command, told Congress last year that the Chinese military could take action against Taiwan before 2027. Davidson’s warning was partly downplayed at the time, but officials have intensified their warnings over the past year.” China’s top technology overseer convened a series of emergency meetings over the past week with leading semiconductor companies, seeking to assess the damage from the Biden administration’s sweeping chip restrictions and pledging support for the critical sector. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has summoned executives from firms including Yangtze Memory Technologies Co. and supercomputer specialist Dawning Information Industry Co. into closed-door meetings since Washington unveiled measures to contain China’s technological ambitions. MIIT officials appeared uncertain about the way forward and at times appeared to have as many questions as answers for the chipmakers, people familiar with the discussions said.  Russia-China Relations The defect rate of China’s semiconductor exports to Russia surged after the country invaded Ukraine in March, when Western sanctions forced Russian companies to source electronics from new suppliers, according to the local news outlet Kommersant. Since the unprecedented wave of sanctions on Russia, 40 per cent of chips imported from China have been defective, while the rate before March was just 2 per cent, Kommersant reported, citing an anonymous source. The report did not name any Chinese suppliers. Russia’s Ministry of Industry and Trade told Kommersant that it had not received any information about an increase in defective shipments. The EU is aiming to pull 10 south-east Asian states into the Western camp on Russia and China when they meet for their first-ever summit in Brussels on 14 December. “We strongly condemn Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, which violates international law and call on Russia to immediately and unconditionally cease its military invasion and withdraw all forces and military equipment from the entire territory of Ukraine,” EU and ASEAN leaders plan to say in a joint declaration. Russia faces a sharp and prolonged slump in its real income as international sanctions over President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine leave deep scars on its economy, according to a study by two Chinese academics. The severing of trade links and access to multinational production may cut real income by almost 12% and result in a “permanent decline in real gross domestic product” for Russia, Xiayi Du and Zi Wang from Shanghai University of Finance and Economics said in the study published in the journal Economics Letters. “This welfare loss is mainly due to losing access to foreign final goods and intermediates,” they said. CCP Foreign Influence Germany’s intelligence service chiefs warned on Monday that China could use stakes in critical infrastructure as leverage to pursue political aims amid a debate in Berlin over whether to let Chinese shipping company Cosco invest in Hamburg port. Germany’s Greens-run economy ministry wants to veto Cosco’s bid to buy a stake in one of the three terminals in Germany’s most important port, while the Social Democrat (SPD)-run chancellery is more in favour, according to government sources. China’s President Xi Jinping recently signed an order to establish a legal framework for conducting “non-war military operations” – more commonly known as “military operations other than war” (MOOTW) – with the primary goals of preventing challenges to China’s interests from emerging, maintaining national sovereignty and regional stability, and creating standard procedures for regulating the PLA’s (People’s Liberation Army) conduct of these operations. PLA strategists have described China’s non-war military operations abroad as the “soft use” of “hard power.” In 2019, when my Human Rights Watch colleagues visited Indonesia’s capital, Jakarta, they sought meetings with government officials and opinion leaders to encourage them to speak up against the discrimination and abuses suffered by Uyghurs and other Muslims in Xinjiang, China. Instead of an enthusiastic reception, they encountered a wall of silence. While civil society activists expressed concern about Chinese government human rights violations, some Indonesian Muslim leaders criticized the “American media” or “Western organizations” for mischaracterizing the situation in Xinjiang. Indonesian government officials also didn’t want to address the issue, insisting that what happens to the Uyghurs is a domestic matter for the Chinese authorities. Now this disregard for the Uyghurs has gone from bad to worse.  COVID-19 Reports that a 16-year-old girl has died in a Covid quarantine centre after pleas from her family for medical help were ignored have caused anger in China, where ongoing tight pandemic controls have started to take their toll on a weary population. The video comes as Communist leaders are meeting in Beijing for their party congress – the most important meeting of China’s five-year political cycle. Authorities have been under pressure to ensure there are no signs of unrest during the meeting but frustration has broken through. Last week, in a rare protest in Beijing, incendiary slogans against Xi Jinping, including references to anger at strict Covid policies, were hung from a central overpass. The same slogans have begun to appear in other locations. In many parts of Xi Jinping’s China, state surveillance and Covid-19 controls begin the moment you step out the door in the morning. The day might start with a government-mandated Covid test from workers in white hazmat suits. Without proof of a negative result, public spaces are off limits, including office buildings, grocery stores and parks. Surveillance cameras keep watch over the city streets. In a cab on the way to work, the driver requires you to scan a QR code for a government database tracking people’s movements. Scan again when stopping by Starbucks for coffee and then again at the office. If the database shows you’ve crossed paths with someone infected by the virus, you’ll likely be forced into quarantine. Hong Kong The treatment of a Hong Kong protester in Britain who was seen being dragged into the Chinese consulate in Manchester and beaten on Sunday has raised concerns about the quashing of dissent outside of Chinese borders. The episode was “absolutely unacceptable” as the protests were “peaceful and legal,” Foreign Secretary James Cleverly told Sky News. “They were on British soil.” Taiwan The Biden administration is considering a plan to jointly produce weapons with Taiwan, according to three people familiar with the plan. It aims to increase production capacity for U.S.-designed arms, speed their transfer and strengthen deterrence toward China. “There has been a change in the approach from Beijing toward Taiwan in recent years,” said U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken at an Oct. 17 event in California. “A fundamental decision [has been made] that the status quo was no longer acceptable, and that Beijing was determined to pursue reunification [with Taiwan] on a much faster timeline.” Chinese President Xi Jinping is expected to receive an unprecedented third term as leader at the Communist Party’s 20th National Congress, which will continue until Oct. 22, and he may further ratchet up military pressure on Taiwan. Xinjiang The Chinese government won an important victory at the U.N. Human Rights Council on October 6, using its political and economic influence to defeat a motion that called for debate on the human rights situation in Xinjiang. The motion failed by a margin of two votes, paving the way for a smooth opening for the Chinese Communist Party’s 20th National Congress on October 16. To further shield itself from accountability for the atrocities being committed in Xinjiang, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has worked vigorously to reshape media narratives around the world. Beijing’s efforts to influence media coverage of its human rights violations in Xinjiang include disseminating propaganda through traditional channels like Chinese state media and its diplomats’ social media accounts, but it has also adopted more covert and coercive tactics, including the laundering of its propaganda through more credible local outlets. British authorities are being taken to court this month after campaigners took legal action over their failure to block imports of cotton made with forced labour in the Xinjiang region of China. The judicial review, being brought by two groups – Global Legal Action Network (GLAN) and World Uyghur Congress (WUC) – and paid for by crowd-funding, is due to be heard in the High Court on Tuesday 25th and Wednesday 26th October. The company that built the venue for the Qatar 2022 World Cup final also constructed a prison used in China’s mass detention of Uighurs in Xinjiang province, The Times can reveal. Documents show that China Railway Construction Corporation (CRCC), the joint venture partner with Qatar in building the showpiece Lusail stadium, previously worked for the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps.

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U.S.-China Relations

A pro-Beijing online propaganda campaign has used phony websites and social-media posts to try to discredit a prominent German anthropologist who has investigated China’s crackdown on Muslims, according to cybersecurity researchers. The activity, which dates to last year and continues, is part of a complex effort to push pro-China narratives using more than 70 suspected inauthentic news websites in 11 languages, all tied to a Chinese public-relations firm, according to a new report made public Thursday by the U.S.-based cybersecurity firm Mandiant Inc.Kelley Currie has spent much of her government career working on human rights issues, with a special focus on Asia. Ms. Currie, who most recently served as U.S. ambassador-at-large for global women’s issues during the Trump administration, was unhappy to learn that her retirement dollars could go toward companies that are linked to the Chinese military—the very entities she had been challenging for years. Ms. Currie’s retirement savings and those of millions of others are part of the Thrift Savings Plan, a retirement fund for federal workers that has more than $700 billion in assets under management. Postal workers, customs and border patrol agents, retired and active members of the armed forces, diplomats, the national intelligence community—and even some living presidents—are invested in the plan.Two Senate Republicans have introduced a proposal to stop the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) from purchasing farmland in the United States, arguing that the communist regime’s acquisitions on American soil pose a threat to national security. In introducing the bill dubbed the Securing America’s Land From Foreign Interference Act, Sens. Tommy Tuberville (R-Ala.) and Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) cited a 2020 report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) saying that foreign individuals and entities held an interest in nearly 37.6 million acres of U.S. agricultural land. While some 14 states have restrictions against foreign ownership of land, there are no federal restraints regarding private U.S. agricultural land that can be foreign-owned, they said.

Russia-China Relations

The Biden administration’s new policy for sub-Saharan Africa accuses China of seeing the region as an “arena” in which to wage a battle against the US-led “rules-based international order” and Russia of causing instability and then cashing in on the chaos. But while the strategy, published today [PDF], acknowledges the US has to respond to “growing foreign activity and influence” in the region, the document focuses less on its geopolitical rivals and more on how Washington can do a better job engaging African governments to work closely on everything from the climate crisis to food insecurity to terrorism.The war in Ukraine has cut Russia off from much of the Western world. Barraged by sanctions, denounced in international media, and ostracized from global cultural events, Russians are feeling increasingly alone. But the Kremlin can rely on at least one major pillar of support: China. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine has forced Russia to turn to its fellow Eurasian giant, hat in hand. In the twentieth century, the Soviet Union viewed China—at least until the Sino-Soviet split of the 1960s—as a poorer cousin, a country to be steered and helped along in its fitful progress toward respectability. Decades later, the tables have turned decisively. China has for some time boasted a more robust and dynamic economy, greater technological prowess, and more global political and economic clout than Russia.Russia is importing Chinese goods at nearly the same rate as before Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine, according to according to data from China’s customs authority compiled by Bloomberg. In July, Russia imported $6.7 billion of goods from China, a roughly 20% increase from the same time last year, filling the market gap from Western countries that have stopped trading with the warring nation.

CCP Foreign Influence

First announced in a speech by Chinese President Xi Jinping in 2013 as the “Silk Road,” the BRI was fleshed out in April 2015 with the announcement of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), stretching from Gwadar to the Chinese city of Kashgar, in Xinjiang. The CPEC showcased the China-Pakistan “all-weather friendship” with $46 billion in pledged funds that has since grown to $50 billion. It was to be the backbone of the now renamed Belt and Road Initiative. When the CPEC agreements were signed, Pakistan’s government called Gwadar “the economic future of Pakistan,” an alternative to Dubai that would turn around the country’s economic fortunes. But today, with just a couple of months until the 20th Chinese Communist Party Congress in Beijing, the CPEC is on the verge of crisis, as is the BRI itself.  Many headline projects have either failed to get off the ground or produced mixed to poor results. As China rapidly extends its reach in the Pacific, its growing influence is unmistakable in the Solomon Islands, a country with which it established diplomatic ties only in 2019. The relationship between the world’s most populous country and this Pacific archipelago of 700,000 people was thrust into the spotlight this year when word leaked that they had struck a secret security agreement. The United States and its allies fear the pact could pave the way for the establishment of a Chinese military base in the strategically valuable island chain where several thousand American soldiers died during World War II’s Guadalcanal campaign. China is changing this country in other ways. Some are flashy, such as the sports stadium that will serve as the centerpiece of next year’s Pacific Games. Others are subtler yet potentially more profound, including growing Chinese influence over local policing and politics and a plan for Huawei to build more than 150 telecommunications towers that critics fear could enable Chinese surveillance.New transparency demands from global financial institutions aimed at preventing sovereign debt distress are starting to have an impact on China-backed infrastructure projects under the Belt and Road Initiative, experts say. As global interest rates rise and concern about developing world debt risk swirls, “sustainability” and “transparency” have become buzzwords at organisations like the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank. The international bodies, which have traditionally been controlled by the United States and other wealthy Group of 7 nations, are pushing for greater disclosure from borrowers, including on debt contracts with China, former senior staff and analysts say.Bangladesh’s finance minister AHM Mustafa Kamal has warned that developing countries must think twice about taking more loans through China’s Belt and Road Initiative as global (BRI) inflation and slowing growth add to the strains on indebted emerging markets.

COVID-19

Researchers in China have identified a novel virus likely spread to humans from animals—though completely unrelated to the coronavirus—in 35 people. The discovery comes as the country battles its worst Covid outbreak in weeks, with dozens of regions locked down. The so-called LayV is a newly identified member of the henipaviruses, a group that can infect humans and have high fatality rates. In the subjects tested, some whose samples date back 1-2 years, all had fever, alongside other serious symptoms such as anorexia, vomiting, and impaired liver function. The findings were reported in the New England Journal of Medicine by Chinese and international researchers.Seeing Chinese authorities exercise extraordinary powers during a stringent COVID-19 lockdown in Shanghai earlier this year altered Claire Jiang’s life plans: she no longer wants to have babies in China. During the April-May lockdown, the hashtag “we are the last generation” briefly went viral on Chinese social media before being censored. The phrase echoed the response of a man who was visited by authorities in hazmat suits threatening to punish his family for three generations for non-compliance with COVID rules.

Hong Kong

Hong Kong’s population dropped by a record as people fled strict Covid-19 restrictions that have hobbled the city as most other regions move on from the pandemic. The city saw a decline of 121,500 residents in the year ended June 30, leaving the population at about 7.29 million, according to government data released Thursday. That means the population fell 1.6%, marking the third straight year of declines and the biggest drop in at least six decades. A wide-reaching national security law may have also been a contributing factor.At a pre-trial hearing in Hong Kong, a judge set a five-day trial for Cardinal Joseph Zen Ze-kiun and four other defendants who face charges of failing to properly register a now-defunct fund to help anti-government protesters. According to an Aug. 9 report by the Hong Kong Free Press news agency, Magistrate Ada Yim announced that the trial will take place Sept. 19-23 after asking prosecutors and the defendants’ lawyers if five days would be sufficient for the court to hear the case. Both sides agreed. The 90-year-old cardinal was detained May 11 under China’s national security law. However, he and the four others were charged with failing to properly register the 612 Humanitarian Relief Fund, set up to offer financial assistance to those involved in anti-government protests in 2019. It was disbanded last year after coming under scrutiny by authorities.

Taiwan

China’s military exercises show Beijing doesn’t need to invade Taiwan to control it – rather it can strangle the self-ruled island, cutting it off from the outside world, Chinese and American analysts say. The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) drills, which officially began last Thursday, focused on six zones that essentially encircled Taiwan, restricting access to civilian ships and aircraft in the area, as forces conducted live-fire drills and missile launches. Meng Xiangqing, a professor at the PLA National Defense University, said the six areas were chosen to show how China could cut off Taiwan’s ports, attack its most important military installations, and sever access for foreign forces that may come to Taiwan’s aid.China has published its first white paper on Taiwan in more than two decades, offering as a blueprint for unification the “one country, two systems” model that it used to recover Hong Kong a quarter of a century ago. The proposal should make chilling reading for those on the self-ruled democratic island. The Hong Kong formula has never held much appeal for the Taiwanese, who even in the early years after the 1997 handover were skeptical of the city’s autonomy and saw little incentive to exchange their de facto independence for domination by an authoritarian China. By now, though, “one country, two systems” is a much-diminished brand. After Hong Kong’s pro-democracy protests in 2019, Beijing undertook a comprehensive political rectification project that has erased or severely curtailed many of the freedoms it promised to preserve. Were Taiwan to join the Chinese fold on the same terms, few can doubt that it would be subjected to a similar program. In his decade of ruling China, Xi Jinping has tried to imbue its people with confidence, telling them that the country is doing very well compared with the chaotic West. He has told the younger generation that China can finally look at the world as an equal. “It’s no longer as backward,” he said last year. “The East is rising, and the West is declining,” he declared, at a time when the United States and other Western countries seemed mired in high Covid infection rates, racial tensions and other problems. Mr. Xi has told China’s 1.4 billion people to be proud of its culture, its governance system and its future as a great power, all of which add up to his signature political philosophy, sometimes called the “confidence doctrine.”China appeared to be rehearsing an invasion just miles away. World leaders issued forceful condemnations. But as Beijing’s military sent missiles and jets over their heads in a display of fury, many residents of Taiwan remained unmoved by what outside observers fear is a rising threat of war. “We grew up with this,” said Rui Hao, a 40-year-old resident of Taipei, the capital, shrugging off the potential for conflict. When he was a boy, his parents considered emigrating from their home in Taiwan to escape the threat of war with China. Three decades later, they still live here.

Xinjiang

The repression against Uyghurs in Xinjiang, which its non-Han inhabitants call East Turkestan, is becoming increasingly barbaric. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP)’s police is seriously responsible for that, under directions of the local and central Chinese administrations. Now, the brutality of the police in the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous region (XUAR) has been fully documented through new specific research guided by German scholar Dr. Adrian Zenz, Senior Fellow and Director in China Studies at the Victims of Communism Memorial Foundation (VCMF) in Washington, D.C. Dr. Zenz is the leading authority on the XUAR detention and re-education camps, and for this endures the reprimand, scorn, and calumny of the CCP.Concerned over Uyghur rights violations and the presence of Chinese-owned surveillance systems at the Department of Defense and police forces that has undermined national security, the British government has replaced security equipment provided by Chinese-owned tech companies at key government offices, media reports said. Other rights groups are campaigning for Hikvision and Dahua to be banned in the UK due to the companies’ involvement in the Chinese state’s repression of Uyghurs in Xinjiang, China. Hikvision and Dahua cameras are used in concentration camps throughout the Uyghur region, Asian Lite reported. This comes as the British MPs alleged that the Chinese government is persecuting minorities and intruding on governmental departments and research centers worldwide. They also accused China of violating the territorial integrity of neighboring countries.This summer, the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act took effect, restricting U.S. imports of products from the Xinjiang region of China, where a great deal of evidence reveals that the Chinese government has been imprisoning and otherwise persecuting the resident Uyghur ethnic minority. This law goes beyond previous attempts to address forced labor and what advocates call “modern slavery,” since it presumes that items linked to Xinjiang have been made with forced labor, unless importing companies can demonstrate otherwise. Evidence shows that Uyghur Muslims are enduring wide-ranging repression from Chinese authorities, including forced migration and internment in what are called reeducation camps. Through both routes, Uyghur individuals have been coerced into producing cotton, tomatoes, electronic components and a variety of other materials destined for global markets, including polysilicon for solar panels.

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