Top Secret – Joint Chiefs of Staff – 3-72 Nuclear Operations

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Atomic weapons are a key element of the security condition. Foes progressively depend on atomic weapons to verify their inclinations. Those looking for approaches to utilize atomic weapons for pressure and war end present complex prevention and acceleration the executives challenges. US atomic weapons and the related capacities expected to lead atomic tasks are basic to guarantee a powerful obstacle.

2. Motivation behind Atomic Powers in US Technique

US atomic powers serve the national goal of keeping up harmony through quality. The National Security Procedure and National Protection Methodology are upheld through four head jobs for US atomic powers that guide the advancement of US power abilities and endorse the utilization of these capacities. These jobs are correlative and interrelated, and the sufficiency of US atomic powers is evaluated against every job and the methodology intended to satisfy it:

a. Hinder atomic and nonnuclear assault.

b. Guarantee partners and accomplices.

c. On the off chance that prevention fizzles, accomplish US destinations.

d. Support against a dubious future.

3. Prevention

a. Discouragement is the avoidance of activity by the presence of a believable risk of unsatisfactory neutralization and additionally conviction that the expense of the activity exceeds the apparent advantages. Sound prevention works by affecting enemy leaders through the show of US capacity and key informing of US resolve to utilize abilities that preclude the advantages from securing foe activity and force costs on them.

b. Valid atomic capacities are significant, as the President must have the way to react properly to an assault on the US, its partners, and accomplices. Atomic powers must be set up to accomplish the key destinations characterized by the President. Vital discouragement doesn’t stop once a contention has begun however proceeds all through the whole scope of military tasks. The utilization of atomic as well as customary prevention tasks during all periods of arranging and execution is basic to impact a foe’s basic leadership process, paying little mind to the phase of contention.

c. Notwithstanding dissuading enemies from propelling enormous scale traditional assaults or utilizing weapons of mass obliteration (WMD), atomic powers stretch out prevention to partners and accomplices. This backings limitation endeavors by preventing country states from creating atomic abilities of their own.

d. There is no “one size fits all” for prevention. Thus, the US applies a customized and adaptable way to deal with viably deflect a range of foes, dangers, and settings. Atomic weapons expansion, procurement of atomic materials of concern, and trade of specialized ability pursue pathways and danger systems like those of other WMD multiplication.

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2. Vital Set of three

a. The US keeps up a set of three of vital atomic powers comprising of land-based intercontinental ballistic rockets (ICBMs), submarine-propelled ballistic rockets (SLBMs), and long-extend planes. Every framework gives solidarity to the US atomic power pose through one of a kind and correlative qualities. Further, the key group of three decreases the likelihood that a specialized issue in any one leg of the vital set of three or enemy specialized headway will leave the US at a vital drawback.

b. ICBM. The ICBM power remains ceaselessly on alert and furnishes the President with responsive choices. Adaptability accordingly choices and the capacity to quickly retarget confuses adversary assault arranging. With scattered basing, responsiveness, and powerful order and control, the ICBM power makes an uncommonly high edge for an effective, enormous scale, regular or atomic assault on the US country. The ICBM power is survivable from the angle that an adversary would be required to submit a huge scale use of atomic warheads to focus on all ICBM dispatch offices and control focuses.

A talk of ICBM capacities is found in Aviation based armed forces Convention Addition 3-72, Atomic Activities.

c. SLBM. The ballistic rocket submarine (atomic controlled) (SSBN) and its related SLBM give a guaranteed, survivable strike capacity. The SSBN power furnishes the country with an exceptionally solid, sheltered, secure, exact, adaptable, and viable obstacle capacity that convolutes a risk’s arranging, driving them to consider the reaction ability from SSBNs.

For more data on SSBN/SLBM abilities, allude to Naval force Fighting Distribution 372, Naval force Vital Atomic Prevention.

d. Long-Range Planes. Long-extend aircraft are fit for striking focuses the world over, giving an obvious and adaptable atomic obstruction capacity, while guaranteeing partners and accomplices. Aircraft give both standoff and infiltrating capacities expected to overcome an assortment of dangers, to incorporate current air safeguards, portable targets, and targets inserted in complex landscape. Dissimilar to SLBMs and ICBMs, aircraft are recallable.

A talk of aircraft capacities is found in Aviation based armed forces Teaching Addition 3-72, Atomic Activities.

3. Nonstrategic Powers

Double Proficient Air ship. The US and select North Atlantic Arrangement Association (NATO) partners keep up double fit flying machine fit for conveying atomic or ordinary weapons on the side of national vital expanded prevention targets and reinforcing local discouragement. These atomic powers offer a significant ability against provincial dangers, guaranteeing partners of the US duty to their security and are an unmistakable and noticeable message to any risk.

JOINT CHIEFS OF STAFF – Joint Staff Strategic Multilayer Assessment: Russian Strategic Intentions

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Understanding the fate of worldwide rivalry and struggle is presently more significant than any time in recent memory. In a powerfully evolving world, the nature and character of fighting, prevention, compellence, acceleration the executives, and influence are critical and basic in deciding how the US and its accomplices should:

• Strategize to shield their worldwide advantages against exercises that are proposed to undermine those interests over the range of rivalry;

• Shield their inclinations against dangers by provincial contenders through available resources corresponding to procedures versus China and Russia however don’t undermine different interests; and

• Get ready US and accomplice powers to react to unforeseen and lithe improvements in worldwide legislative issues and innovation by distinguishing territories for participation, moderating the danger of exercises shy of equipped clash, and preventing furnished clash over various wellsprings of national power (e.g., exchange, tact, security).

The National Security System (NSS), National Safeguard Methodology (NDS), and National Military Procedure all note that future encounters between significant forces may regularly happen underneath the degree of outfitted clash. In this condition, monetary challenge, impact crusades, paramilitary activities, digital interruptions, and political fighting will probably turn out to be increasingly pervasive. Such encounters increment the danger of misperception and miscount, between powers with huge military quality, which may then build the danger of furnished clash. In this specific situation, the US ability to impact the results of both worldwide and local occasions must be reexamined. The developing uniqueness among incredible forces (i.e., the US, China, and Russia) with respect to what comprises authentic or adequate discouragement, compellence, and acceleration the board exercises ought to be deliberately analyzed.

With that in mind, this white paper surveys Russian exercises over the globe to assemble an improved, major comprehension of the contemporary and future impact condition. Countering Russian provocative exercises requires an exhaustive technique and the NDS perceives this reality so as to effectively counter Russian provocative exercises; thus, the US should cooperatively utilize various instruments of national control in a synchronized way. As white paper supporter Brig Gen (ret) Ransack Spalding III recommends, “the US job with respect to Russia ought to be to keep on connecting with European partners to lead the pack for adjusting in Europe. The partners’ objective ought to be discouragement. Simultaneously, the US ought to reciprocally connect with Russia to strip them away from China’s circle. The US can work with Russia in manners that improve the US-Russia relationship without diminishing European endeavors to adjust and dissuade.”

The articles in this white paper give government partners—knowledge, law authorization, military, and approach organizations—with important bits of knowledge and systematic structures to help the US, its partners, and accomplices in building up a thorough methodology to contend and vanquish this Russian test. Critical perceptions include:

• Russia is receiving coercive systems that include the arranged work of military and nonmilitary intends to stop and constrain the US, its partners and accomplices before and after the flare-up of threats. These procedures must be proactively stood up to, or the risk of critical outfitted clash may increment.

• Russia displays a profound situated feeling of geopolitical uncertainty which propels it to seek after key goals that set up an uncontested range of prominence in the post-Soviet locale. However, Russians progressively can’t help contradicting the Kremlin’s statements that the US is an approaching outside risk and an incendiary power in Russian local governmental issues.

• Russia’s hazy area strategies are best when the objective is profoundly captivated or does not have the ability to oppose and react successfully to Russian animosity. As per Russian vital idea, discouragement and compellence are cut out of the same cloth.

Just with an adjusted and synchrozined entire of government approach will the US contend and win against rising powers like Russia and China. Such cooperation requires a typical comprehension of our rivals, their strategies and wanted endstates and we mean that this white paper will accomplish this basic objective.

…

This white paper was set up as a major aspect of the Key Multilayer Asssessment, entitled The Eventual fate of Worldwide Challenge and Struggle. Twenty-three master donors added to this white paper and gave wide-going evaluations of Russia’s worldwide advantages and targets, just as the exercises—dim or something else—that it behaviors to accomplish them. This white paper is separated into five segments and twenty-five sections, as depicted underneath. This rundown reports a portion of the white paper’s significant level discoveries, yet it is not a viable alternative for a cautious read of the individual commitments.

There is expansive agreement among the patrons that Russian President Vladimir Putin is in reality holding fast to a worldwide fantastic technique, which expects to accomplish the accompanying objectives:

• Recover and verify Russia’s impact over previous Soviet countries

• Recapture overall acknowledgment as an “incredible power”

• Depict itself as a solid entertainer, a key local powerbroker, and a fruitful middle person (Katz; Borshchevskaya) so as to increase financial, military, and political impact over countries

worldwide and to refine the radical decides and standards that at present administer the world request (Lamoreaux)

As per Dr. Robert Individual, these objectives are inspired by Russia’s profound situated geopolitical frailty. Since the breakdown of the Soviet Association, Russia has battled to discover its place in the worldwide network, which has left the administration with a waiting want to recapture the impact and power that it once had. Specifically, Russia tries to recover its impact over previous Soviet states, which it claims are in its legitimate “authoritative reach” (Lamoreaux; Individual; Swamp). Therefore, one of the US’s center objectives, to be specific advancing and securing the worldwide liberal request, comes into conflict with the objectives of Russia’s terrific system. This supports the Kremlin’s conviction that it must contain and compel US impact and exercises in Europe and somewhere else over the globe. As Ms. Anna Borshchevskaya’s commitment recommends, the Russian initiative’s perspective is lose-lose; it accepts that with the end goal for Russia to win, the US must lose. In any case, Dr. Christopher Swamp’s commitment recommends that this world view isn’t really shared by the Russian populace or its tip top.

As prove by the scope of “hazy area” exercises it takes part in, some of the master donors contend that the Russian administration considers itself to be at war with the US and the West all in all. From a Russian point of view, this war isn’t add up to, yet rather, it is basic (Goure)— a kind of “war” that is inconsistent with the general US comprehension of fighting. Russia accepts that there is no inadmissible or ill-conceived type of prevention, compellence, or heightening administration (Goure). It additionally doesn’t put stock in the continuum of contention that the US has developed. Like Russia’s view of its opposition with the US, its impression of contention is dichotomous: one is either at war or not at war. To battle and win this war, Russia accepts that the effective incorporation of all instruments of state control (Goure), just as the coordinated work of non-military and military intends to deflect and constrain (Flynn), are foremost. Moreover, Russian military ideas incorporate choices for utilizing preemptive power to incite stun and deter a foe from directing military tasks and to urge a de-heightening of threats (Flynn). The creators see that Russia’s methodologies are persistently advancing and expect that the inconsistency between the Russian and the US comprehension of “contention” and “war” will keep on developing, prompting a higher danger of acceleration in future circumstances including the two countries.

By and large, Russia’s impact abroad is developing, and the Kremlin has aced the utilization of “cross breed fighting” in driving Russia’s international strategy (Lamoreaux). Russia uses an assortment of hazy area strategies around the world. These incorporate the utilization of paramilitary powers and different intermediaries, obstruction in political procedures, financial and vitality abuse (especially in Africa), surveillance, and media and publicity control. Putin is likewise adroit at mixing military and non military personnel components for most extreme effect (Weitz).

The particular strategies of half and half fighting that Russia utilizes change by locale. In Europe, for instance, Russia has used purposeful publicity, an expanding reliance on outside vitality assets, and political control to accomplish its essential objectives (Schindler; Lamoreaux). Interestingly, in the Center East and Africa—significant wellsprings of minerals and other regular assets from a Russian perspective1—Russia has fundamentally used financial abuse devices (Katz; Borshchevskaya; Severin). In Focal Asia, Russia keeps up a significantly more constrained nearness, because of China’s geographic closeness and the present degrees of monetary and security commitment by other provincial on-screen characters (Kangas). By the by, Russia retains impact in the Focal Asia, because of its authentic, etymological, and social associations with the district (Laruelle; Dyet). In like manner, in Latin America, Russia comes up short on an adequate measure of deployable assets to completely execute its methodology or to broaden its impact far (Ellis). Be that as it may, as Dr. Barnett S. Koven and Ms. Abigail C. Kamp watch, Russia compensates for its deficiencies by taking part in long winded and receptive undertakings to upset US impact in the locale.

Joint Chiefs of Staff Briefing about China’s “System Attack”

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This paper explores the PLA’s theory of victory in modern warfare and its implications for how China plans to fight the United States. It is a primer on the theory’s foundational concepts, and on what the theory reveals about China’s strategic intent and ambitions.

(U) Executive Summary

(U//FOUO/RELIDO) China plans to defeat powerful adversaries by systematically targeting the linkages and nodes that hold an advanced network-centric force together as a cohesive whole. The PLA calls this theory of victory “systems attack and destruction warfare,” hereafter, “system attack. Authoritative PLA doctrine emphasizes importance of system attack as China’s “basic operational method” of warfare. System attack is perhaps best remembered as “the American way of war with Chinese characteristics,” since the PLA developed the concept based on observing U.S. military victories In the 1990s. Some of the PLA’s writings on systems attack are clearly aspirational, but this does not preclude the effectiveness of the approach, and the doctrine shows that the Pl.A is thinking seriously and realistically about how to defeat.an advanced adversary. The requirements of system attack are actively driving PLA reform, acquisitions, operations and training, and the doctrine telegraphs how Chine intends to fight.

(U) China’s Theory of War: “‘Systems Confrontation•

• (U//FOUO/RELIDO) 1 +1>2. Operational Systems are Greater Than the Sum of their Parts. Fundamental to China’s theory of victory is the PLA’s concept that modem military forces are “‘systems of systems” which are stronger and more efficient than their components would be in isolation because they are linked and networked together through communications and information systems architecture.

• (U//FOUO/RELIDO) Systems Confrontation: The PLA’s theory of modern warfare, therefore, is “systems confrontation,” or competition between these rival “systems of systems,” rather than as a linear contest between discrete units or services of competing armies.

(U) China’s Theory of Victory: System Attack – Win by Fragmenting the Enemy’s Force

(U//FOUO/RELIDO) Create the Conditions for Winning the War: Make 1 +1<2. The PLA plans to defeat an advanced adversary by thoroughly fragmenting the adversary’s system into isolated component parts. The first step of systems attack, therefore, Is to break the essential links and nodes that promote system cohesion in order to sow confusion, degrade communications and disorient adversary leadership. System attack’s ultimate goal ls to paralyze the adversary force, degrading its ability to resist, eroding leadership will to fight and slowing adversary decision-making. China believes that whichever side has a more networked, integrated and cohesive force will have a shorter OODA loop, be able to act more efficiently, and have a better likelihood of victory. Attacks will take place across all domains to degrade the system as a whole rather than focusing on attrition.

• (U//FOUO/REUDO) Fragment the Force: Degrade Data-Flow and C2. The PLA prioritizes degrading or denying an adversary’s use of information early in a crisis and with greater intensity through a conflict. The PLA envisions using kinetic and non-kinetic operations to target an opponent’s data links, communications, military networks, and information systems architecture early in the conflict. Degrading adversary communications amplifies the effects of missile and air strikes against command and control (C2) nodes, including command centers, flagships, and military and civilian leadership.

• (U//FOUO/REUDO) Blind the Enemy. Deny ISR and Early Warning. China will try to degrade adversary decision-making and awareness by targeting its intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) and early warning capabilities, including key space-based collection systems, theater ISR platforms, intelligence centers and satellites.

• (U//FOUO/RELIDO) Own the Initiative: Getting Inside the Adversary OODA Loop. China plans to seize first mover advantage by initiating conflict when the adversary is not prepared. The PLA will try to maintain battlefield initiative by forcing adversaries into a reactive cycle driven by a rapid tempo of unexpected long-range strikes, asymmetric attacks, and harassing attacks.

• (U//FOUO/RELIDO) More Return on Investment Precision Strikes Enable Outsized Effects. The PLA will rely on highly targeted precision strikes against key links and nodes to achieve an outsized effect on the enemy force’s overall stability and effectiveness. Kinetic precision strikes will be complemented by non-kinetic attacks, especially against adversary networks, datalinks, and information systems.

(U/FOUO/RELIDO) Using the Full Against the Fragmentary, Defeating the Slow with the Rapid. System attacks are designed to enable following operations. Once system attacks have fragmented the adversary military so that it cannot operate as a cohesive force, the PLA will commit its broader intact and networked force to combat. Having tilted the battlefield In its own favor, the PLA will carry out supplemental attacks that ensure the adversary•s system does not recover while gradually attriting the adversary’s aircraft, ships, submarines, and other long-range-strike platforms. Sequencing system attacks first enables the PLA to achieve greater effect with lower risk to its force or mission.

• (U//FOUO/RELIDO) China Expects to Have Its System Targeted Too. China expects that the U.S. will try to degrade the PLA’s ability to operate as a coherent force, having developed the systems attack doctrine described above by watching how the United States fights. The PLA therefore is training and equipping the force to operate independently, autonomously, and resiliently, with a notable emphasis on operating in a complex electromagnetic environment.

(U//FOUO/RELIDO) Aspiration Does Not Equal Capability, but It Signals Intent. In PLA doctrine, the rough sequence of operations enabled by systems attacks would be familiar to U.S. military operators: achieve air superiority, then use air superiority to seize maritime superiority and enable ground operations, then use maritime superiority to execute attacks from the sea to the land. The last part of this sequence is aspirational, since China does not currently field ship-launched land attack cruise missiles and its nascent aircraft carrier program is unable to carry out strike warfare. It is, however, how the PLA says it wants to be able to fight, and its acquisitions and training reflect this ambition. China’s doctrine is reflected in its acquisitions and training patterns today. Tomorrow it will be reflected in its operations. The PLA is progressing rapidly. This is how they will fight.

(U) A Note on Sources:

(U//FOUO) The findings of this paper are derived from China’s most authoritative government and military doctrinal writings: The Importance of system of systems confrontation is evident in its inclusion In the 2015 Defense White Paper on Military Strategy. All other details are derived from the 2015 and 2013 editions of the Science of Military Strategy, and .from an unclassified 2018 RAND Corporation study, Systems Confrontation and System Destruction Warfare: How the Chinese People’s Liberation .Army Seeks to Wage Modem Warfare. General assessments on PLA acquisitions, training and operations are reflected in a wide body of unclassified open source materials from 2000 through the present For ease of sourcing, we cited the 2017 Department of Defense Annual Report to Congress on Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China.

TOP SECRET – U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff new Doc about Operations Security

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Executive Summary:

Commanders ensure operational security (OPSEC) is practiced during all phases of operations. OPSEC is a capability that identifies and controls critical information, indicators of friendly force actions attendant to military operations, and incorporates countermeasures to reduce the risk of an adversary exploiting vulnerabilities. As adversary analysts apply more information to an analytical model, the likelihood increases that the analytical model will replicate the observed force. Thus, current and future capabilities and courses of action can be revealed and compromised.

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2. Operational Context

a. Joint forces often display personnel, organizations, assets, and actions to public view and to a variety of adversary intelligence collection activities, including sensors and systems. Joint forces can be under observation at their peacetime bases and locations, in training or exercises, while moving, or when deployed conducting actual operations. The actions or behavior of military family members and businesses associated with or supporting military operations are also subject to observation by adversaries, which could equally be associated with activities or operations of the joint force. Frequently, when a force performs a particular activity or operation a number of times, it establishes a pattern of behavior. Within this pattern, certain unique, particular, or special types of information might be associated with an activity or operation. Even though this information may be unclassified, it can expose US military operations to observation and/or attack. Commanders ensure OPSEC is practiced during all phases of operations. OPSEC is a capability that identifies and controls critical information, indicators of friendly force actions attendant to military operations, and incorporates countermeasures to reduce the risk of an adversary exploiting vulnerabilities. In addition, the adversary could compile and correlate enough information to predict and counter US operations.

b. Commanders cannot limit their protection efforts to a particular operational area or threat. With continuing rapid advancement and global use of communications systems and information technology, easily obtainable technical collection tools, and the growing use of the Internet and various social and mass media outlets, the ability to collect critical information virtually from anywhere in the world and threaten US military operations continues to expand. To prevent or reduce successful adversary collection and exploitation of US critical information, the commander should formulate a prudent, practical, timely, and effective OPSEC program. Additionally, the commander’s OPSEC program must establish, resource, and maintain formal OPSEC programs. The commander should formulate these OPSEC programs to be prudent, practical, timely, and effective.

c. In OPSEC usage, an indicator is data derived from friendly detectable actions and open-source information that adversaries can interpret and piece together to reach conclusions or estimates of friendly intentions, capabilities, or activities. Selected indicators can be developed into an analytical model or profile of how a force prepares and how it operates. An indication is an observed specific occurrence or instance of an indicator. OPSEC indicators are friendly detectable actions and open-source information that can be interpreted or pieced together by an adversary to derive critical information.

d. Adversary intelligence personnel continuously analyze and interpret collected information to validate and/or refine the model. As adversary analysts apply more information to the analytical model, the likelihood increases that the analytical model will replicate the observed force. Thus, current and future capabilities and courses of action (COAs) can be revealed and compromised. Critical information consists of specific facts about friendly intentions, capabilities, and activities needed by adversaries to plan and act effectively so as to guarantee failure or unacceptable consequences for friendly mission accomplishment. Critical information can be either classified or unclassified.

e. OPSEC considerations must also be observed while working with interagency partners.

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Unveiled – Counter-Da’esh Influence Operations Cognitive Space Narrative Simulation Insights

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Counter-Da’esh Influence Operations Cognitive Space Narrative Simulation Insights

Page Count: 69 pages
Date: May 2016
Restriction: None
Originating Organization: Joint Staff J39
File Type: pdf
File Size: 3,665,757 bytes
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When planning to deal with any adversary or potential adversaries, it is essential to understand who they are, how they function, their strengths and vulnerabilities, and why they oppose us. Events over the course of the last year and a half highlight the importance of those factors as they relate to the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL or Da’esh). One of Da’esh’s obvious strengths is its ability to propagate tailored messages that resonate with its audiences. If the US Government and our allies are to counter Da’esh effectively, we must attack this center of gravity.

The Joint Staff J-39 Strategic Multilayer Assessment (SMA) branch has been evaluating options in “Cognitive Space” to conduct Information Operations to disrupt Da’esh’s ability to command and control forces, neutralize its ability to maintain or increase moral, political, and financial support as well as recruit foreign fighters. This SMA effort continues to identify methods to psychologically isolate Da’esh leaders from one another and their respective constituencies inside and outside of the organization. Furthermore, this SMA effort has been assessing the value of “integrated neuro-cognitive-narrative maneuver” approaches to develop messages and actions that are more likely to have intended effects and less likely to have undesirable unintended or collateral effects, as well as to evaluate message delivery methods more effectively and efficiently by developing campaigns that achieve undercutting effects.

The cornerstone of the effort was the execution of a simulation facilitated by the University of Maryland ICONS team, which sought to

a. support the Psychological Operations (PSYOP) community in meeting training requirements in ways that reinforce the PSYOP process and enhance counter-Da’esh messaging.

b. support the PSYOP community in integrating neuro-cognitive and social science concepts to refine counter-Da’esh message content and increase the effectiveness of the Information Operations (IO) campaign.

c. assist the PSYOP community with understanding the operational environment (OE) and the human networks operating in the OE: friendly, threat, and neutral. Possible examples include providing a (Political, Military, Economic, Social, Information, and Infrastructure) PMESII-framed OE analysis and center of gravity analysis.

This white paper is a compilation of the key findings from the simulation.

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SECRET – Joint Staff Strategic Assessment

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SMA White Paper: Maneuver and Engagement in the Narrative Space

Page Count: 44 pages
Date: January 2016
Restriction: None
Originating Organization: Joint Staff J39 in support of Special Operations Command Central
File Type: pdf
File Size: 2,765,122 bytes
File Hash (SHA-256):8A91FA06FBC9FEADA017FC4FCACEADDE33C5D1E728C5E07710E80885092C9E06

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This paper was produced in support of the Strategic Multi-layer Assessment (SMA) of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) led by Joint Staff J39 in support of the Special Operations Command Central (SOCCENT). The paper leverages and melds the latest thinking of academic and operational subject matter experts in fields of organizational and social dynamics, network analysis, psychology, information operations and narrative development, social media analysis, and doctrine development related to aspects of maneuver and engagement in the narrative space.

The authors emphasize the concept of countering ISIL in the narrative space in synchronization with combat operations. While maneuver and engagement in the narrative space could be conducted independently of combat operations, conducting maneuver and engagement in the narrative space in support of combat operations is more likely to achieve lasting effects in the human domain. These ideas reflect a new view of what is required to succeed in future conflict because of the growing realization that decisive effects are often achieved in the narrative space.

…

Warfare is ultimately a human endeavor. When planning to deal with any adversary or potential adversary, it is essential to understand who they are, how they function, their strengths and vulnerabilities, and why they oppose us. Events over the course of the last year and a half highlight the importance of those factors as they relate to the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL). One of ISIL’s obvious strengths is their ability to propagate tailored narratives that resonate with target audiences. If the US and our allies are to counter ISIL effectively, we must attack this center of gravity. A recent white paper endorsed by General Votel, Commanding General of US Special Operations Command (USSOCOM), states,

Thousands of airstrikes helped to check their [ISIL’s] rapid expansion, but the decisive effort against them will require discrediting their narrative and connecting the people to legitimate governing structures – areas where Department of Defense should not have primacy.

Discrediting ISIL’s narrative will require a long-term effort by a team of experts. It will require: (1) developing an in-depth understanding of ISIL’s narratives and why they resonate with target audiences, (2) building a whole of government team that can effectively counter and replace ISIL narratives with a strategic communications plan that directly supports our desired end states, (3) globally employing counter-narratives and replacement narratives, (5) gathering and collecting data to assess the effects of narratives (theirs and ours), and (6) continually refining the content and employment of our narratives based on an assessment of their effectiveness.

An effective, whole of government, Strategic Communications plan requires close coordination and synchronization across all lines of effort. The US Department of State should lead the US effort with support from the other Departments/Agencies on behalf of the US government. To be successful, our approach must also include our friends and allies. Specific multinational partners can help us understand why some ISIL narratives resonate and how they can be countered and/or replaced. In fact, truly effective influence operations require a combination of art and science. The best approach will most likely require contributions from neuroscientists, sociologists, psychological operations specialists, intelligence analysts, civil affairs planners, law enforcement professionals, and others. The melding of these diverse inputs into a comprehensive strategy demands skill, patience, close coordination and an inherent understanding of the ultimate end states. Ultimately, discrediting ISIL’s narrative will most likely take years and will require significant resources. However, the execution of our strategic communication game plan, from initial analysis to our measure of effectiveness, must be conducted with the speed and agility necessary to not only replace ISIL’s narrative but to drive and shape their perceptions and subsequent actions. Simply put, to achieve victory we must outmaneuver and outpace ISIL in the narrative space. Currently, the opposite is occurring and is a trend that must be reversed.

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Revealed – Joint Chiefs of Staff Guide Offers Blunt Assessment of Afghan National Police

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September 8, 2014

“First time I ever saw an Afghan Police Station I thought it was something straight out of the dark ages, complete with zero electricity, mud structure, and no sewage drainage. Immediately I knew this mission would be challenging and wondered what the heck I got myself into?”

This quote from a U.S. Army Captain is just one example of the unusually blunt assessments contained in the Joint Center for International Security Force Assistance (JCISFA) guide for advising the Afghan National Police (ANP). The 2010 version of the JCISFA ANP Mentor Guide, which was obtained by Public Intelligence along with a guide for troops assisting the Afghan National Army (ANA), contains a number of revealing observations on the often poor condition of Afghan National Security Forces, in particular the ANP.

The JCISFA guide explains to would-be advisers that an ANP station will not “resemble anything close to what an American police station would look like” and are often constructed from mud and straw. Though the Combined Security Transition Command–Afghanistan (CSTC-A) is reportedly funding numerous station rebuilds and renovations throughout the country, the guide warns that advisers could encounter the following conditions:

Electricity (1 to 2 kerosene lanterns for light) in rural areas up to 2 to 4 hours of power each day.
Lack of heat and air conditioning.
Generators that work poorly (if at all).
Latrines that are almost all “Eastern style” and have plumbing problems.
Limited water and an unworkable sewage system.

The introduction to the mentor guide states that “public perception of the ANP is poor” and that police officers “have been known to establish Vehicle Control Points (VCP’s) or Traffic Control Points (TCP’s) for the purpose of exacting tolls” or “stealing from the population.” They will often ask to see the vehicle’s registration papers and then require a bribe, referred to as a “baksheesh” which literally means gift, before they return the registration to the vehicle’s owner. Local or tribal leaders will even utilize the ANP at times to “oppress their rivals in inter-family squabbles” which leads to a low public opinion of the national police force. While the ANA is often well regarded by the population, the ANP has a negative reputation among the Afghan people which is used to the advantage of insurgents. According to the guide, ANP are killed at three times the rate of ANA soldiers.

Here are some other revealing observations found in the JCISFA guide:

Police Stations are Often Not Staffed Properly: “In order for a district station to function properly, the ANP need to fill key staff and leadership roles. Unfortunately, in many stations, some of the positions are unfilled, while in other stations the chief is the only key position filled.”
Centralized Leadership Can Cause Inaction: “Control in the ANP is very centralized. As a result, subordinate officers rarely have the latitude to make decisions without first consulting with the chief. In some ways, this centralized control makes the advisor’s job easier since once he convinces the chief of the need to do something, he has convinced the whole station. On the down side, however, subordinate leaders will rarely take the initiative to solve problems without direction, and if the chief is not present they will often defer a decision, even a critical one, until his return.”
Many Police Chiefs are Appointed Due to Patronage: “Many ANP chiefs owe their position not to leadership ability or police experience, but to the patronage of a local leader. As a result, advisors must often guide them very closely to help them do the right things.”
Police Chiefs Often Feel They Can Fleece the Population: “Many chiefs also feel that their position grants them the right to certain ‘benefits’ including skimming pay or demanding additional compensation from the community.”
Afghan Police Lack Muzzle Awareness: “Muzzle awareness is a major problem with many ANP, especially those who have never had an advisor team before. Developing muzzle awareness takes patience and constant spot corrections. Over time, these efforts will have an impact. ANP will also have a tendency to carry loaded weapons with the safety disengaged. A Kalashnikov-type weapon with a selector switch in a position other than ‘safe’ is easy to spot. Advisors need to maintain vigilance regarding the condition and position of ANP weapons.”
Afghan Police Lack Fire Discipline: “Accountability of weapons and ammunition remains problematic due to poor record keeping, theft, maintenance issues, and, in the case of ammunition, operational use. Since the ANP are not known for their fire discipline, keeping stations stocked with sufficient ammunition in areas with a lot of enemy activity will become a constant challenge for the advisor teams.”
There is “Rarely” a Formal Work Schedule: “ANP normally work a ‘fire house’ schedule where they will live and work at the station for a number of days followed by some time off. Unfortunately, the work schedule of the ANP is rarely formalized. Therefore neither the chief nor the advisors can accurately predict how many ANP will be at the station from day to day. This lack of predictability is exacerbated when the ANP conduct a major operation. It is not unusual on the day after an operation for the ANP to have almost no one on duty due to poor schedule management. Typically, advisors can expect to find 50-70% of a station’s assigned strength on duty at any given time. While some of the absences are authorized (time off, sick, injured, leave) some of the absences may be “ghost” police who either do not exist or exist only to collect a pay check.”
Police Can Often Have Ties to Illegal Militias or the Taliban: “That many ANP owe their jobs to the influence of these local leaders has led to the perception that many of them have ties to insurgents or the Taliban, work with illegal militias, or have questionable loyalty to the ANP over their tribal benefactors. Unfortunately, in many cases, these perceptions are reality. The lack of a comprehensive national criminal database also makes weeding out the bad very difficult. In a country where mid to upper level Taliban leaders can freely travel the streets because no one is able or willing to identify them makes infiltration of the ANP by criminals and insurgents a foregone conclusion.”
New Recruits Often Skip Their Training: “A new ANP hire is expected to attend basic police training at either the Central Training Center (CTC) in Kabul or one of the seven Regional Training Centers (RTC) in Kandahar, Gardez, Herat, Kunduz, Jalabad, Mazar-i-Sharif, and Bamian. New hires are expected to attend training within 1-3 months of hire, since they are paid full ANP from the date of hire, often there is no impetus for them to go. Poor record keeping further exacerbates the problem resulting in a large number of untrained ANP.”
Police Stations Often Use Hand Drawn Maps: “Districts often lack maps or may have hand-drawn maps. Maps in Dari can be requested, but land navigation training must be provided in order for the map to be read accurately. Dividing an area of responsibility into sectors based on recognizable terrain features and given simple code names based on colors or numbers, along with specific check points based on easily recognizable points will assist in intelligence gathering, operational planning, and communications.”
Police Corruption is Rampant: “Corruption can be found at all levels, and may be justified by reasoning that the ANP risk much and are underpaid. One favorite tactic is to ‘shake down’ travelers at [traffic control points]. Another is to steal various items while conducting the search of a home. Leaders must be encouraged to follow up on reported acts such as these and to resolve them. Unresolved issues such as these can and will lead to more violence against the ANP and more support for insurgents.”

TOP-SECRET – Operation Northwood

Proposed Top Secret plan from 1962 stating intent among the Joint Chiefs of Staff to stage terrorist attacks, including killing innocent civilians, to provoke war with Cuba
Proposals include use of drone aircraft to stage foreign attacks, staging hijackings, staging attacks on U.S. vessels and facilities, staging riots, as well as the creation of “terror campaigns” on U.S. soil

Operation Northwoods was a plan circulated in the U.S. government in 1962 to stage false flag terrorist attacks inside the U.S. and abroad to provoke “military intervention in Cuba”. The plan called for Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) or other operatives to commit genuine acts of terrorism in U.S. cities and elsewhere. These acts of terrorism were to be blamed on Cuba in order to create public support for a war against that nation, which had recently become communist under Fidel Castro. One part of the Operation Northwoods plan was to “develop a Communist Cuban terror campaign in the Miami area, in other Florida cities and even in Washington.” The document was signed by Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Lyman Lemnitzer and reportedly presented to Secretary of Defense Robert McNamara on March 13, 1962. ¹ ²

The previously Top Secret document was originally made public on November 18, 1997, by the John F. Kennedy Assassination Records Review Board, a U.S. federal agency overseeing the release of government records related to John F. Kennedy’s assassination.³

“Appendix to Enclosure A” and “Annex to Appendix to Enclosure A” of the Northwoods document were first published online by the National Security Archive on November 6, 1998 in a joint venture with CNN as part of CNN’s 1998 Cold War television documentary series—specifically, as a documentation supplement to “Episode 10: Cuba,” which aired on November 29, 1998. “Annex to Appendix to Enclosure A” is the section of the document which contains the proposals to stage terrorist attacks.⁴

U.S. Government’s Willingness to Stage Terrorist Attacks

In the recommendations section of the “Justification for US Military Intervention in Cuba (TS)” memo, the Joint Chiefs of Staff make clear their willingness to stage actual terrorist events with legitimate casualties to sustain their intentions to “intervene” militarily in Cuba’s affairs. The cumulative effect of many of the recommendations is stated as being to provoke reactions from the Cuban government which would justify “military intervention”. Many of the suggested actions have a strong component of Psychological Operations (PSYOPS) designed to simultaneously engender domestic U.S. support for “military intervention” while portraying the Cuban government as a rogue, dangerous entity which will internationally serve to justify the U.S. military intervention. The suggested actions include:

Use of drone (unmanned) aircraft to simulate air-related catastrophes

8. It is possible to create an incident which will demonstrate convincingly that a Cuban aircraft has attacked and shot down a chartered civil airliner en route from the United States to Jamaica, Guatemala, Panama or Venezuela. The destination would be chosen only to cause the flight plan route to cross Cuba. The passengers could be a group of college students off on a holiday or any grouping of persons with a common interest to support chartering a non-scheduled flight.

a. An aircraft at Eglin AFB would be painted and numbered as an exact duplicate for a civil registered aircraft belonging to a CIA proprietary organization in the Miami area. At a designated time the duplicate would be substituted for the actual civil aircraft and would be loaded with the selected passengers, all boarded under carefully prepared aliases. The actual registered aircraft would be converted to a drone.

b. Take off times of the drone aircraft and the actual aircraft will be scheduled to allow a rendezvous south of Florida. From the rendezvous point the passenger-carrying aircraft will descend to minimum altitude and go directly into an auxiliary field at Eglin AFB where arrangements will have been made to evacuate the passengers and return the aircraft to its original status. The drone aircraft meanwhile will continue to fly the filed flight plan. When over Cuba the drone will begin transmitting on the international distress frequency a “MAY DAY” message stating he is under attack by Cuban MIG aircraft. The transmission will be interrupted by destruction of the aircraft which will be triggered by radio signal. This will allow ICAO radio stations in the Western Hemisphere to tell the US what has happened to the aircraft instead of the US trying to “sell” the incident.⁵

Staging “hijacking attempts” of civilian vessels

7. Hijacking attempts against civil air and surface craft should appear to continue as harassing measures condoned by the government of Cuba.⁶

Creation of “terror campaigns” inside the U.S. with legitimate victims

4. We could develop a Communist Cuban terror campaign in the Miami area, in other Florida cities and even in Washington.

The terror campaign could be pointed at refugees seeking haven in the United States. We could sink a boatload of Cubans en route to Florida (real or simulated). We could foster attempts on lives of Cuban refugees in the United States even to the extent of wounding in instances to be widely publicized. Exploding a few plastic bombs in carefully chosen spots, the arrest of Cuban agents and the release of prepared documents substantiating Cuban involvement, also would be helpful in projecting the idea of an irresponsible government.⁷

Destruction of U.S. military vessels

A “Remember the Maine” incident could be arranged in several forms:

a. We could blow up a US ship in Guantanamo Bay and blame Cuba.

b. We could blow up a drone (unmanned) vessel anywhere in the Cuban waters. We could arrange to cause such incident in the vicinity of Havana or Santiago as a spectacular result of Cuban attack from the air or sea, or both. The presence of Cuban planes or ships merely investigating the intent of the vessel could be fairly compelling evidence that the ship was taken under attack. The nearness to Havana or Santiago would add credibility especially to those people that might have heard the blast or have seen the fire. The US could follow up with an air/sea rescue operation covered by US fighters to “evacuate” remaining members of the non-existent crew. Casualty lists in US newspapers would cause a helpful wave of national indignation.⁸

Staging fires and mortar attacks on U.S. military bases to cause actual damage to installations and potentially personnel

5. Blow up ammunition inside the base; start fires.
6. Burn aircraft on air base (sabotage).
7. Lob mortar shells from outside of base into base. Some damage to installations.⁹

Using friendly provocateurs to stage riots

4. Start riots near the base main gate (friendly Cubans)¹⁰

Source notes:

Pentagon Proposed Pretexts for Cuban Invasion in 1962. National Security Archive. http://www.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/news/20010430/index.html [↩]
Lyman Lemnitzer. Wikipedia.org. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lyman_Lemnitzer [↩]
Operation Northwoods. Wikipedia.org. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Northwoods [↩]
Ibid. [↩]
Operation Northwoods Documents. Public Intelligence. http://publicintelligence.net/operation-northwoods-documents/ [↩]
Ibid. [↩]
Ibid. [↩]
Ibid. [↩]
Ibid. [↩]

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Counter-Da’esh Influence Operations Cognitive Space Narrative Simulation Insights

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SMA White Paper: Maneuver and Engagement in the Narrative Space

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U.S. Government’s Willingness to Stage Terrorist Attacks

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