Syria Admits to Assad-Era Nuclear Material – Vows to Keep It for “Civilian Purposes”

In a stunning reversal, Syria’s new government has publicly acknowledged the existence of tons of nuclear material left behind by the ousted Assad regime and announced it will keep the stockpile on Syrian soil for peaceful civilian use – under IAEA safeguards.

The Discovery

On August 18, 2026, International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General Rafael Grossi announced at a joint press conference in Damascus with Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani that IAEA inspectors had discovered “several tons of nuclear material” at an undeclared site in Syria.

“We are talking about a few tons of nuclear material that could be put to bad use.”
— IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi

The material, which includes yellowcake uranium – a uranium concentrate that can be processed into reactor fuel or, at higher enrichment, used for nuclear weapons – had been stored at a clandestine facility known as “Site 99”.

Syria’s new government voluntarily informed the IAEA about the material on July 17, 2026, marking the first time Damascus has cooperated with the agency on its nuclear legacy.

“On July 17, we sent an official letter to the agency, in which we declared of our own free will the presence of nuclear materials at an undeclared site within the legacy left by the former regime.”
— Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani

The Reversal: “Syria Has the Right to Use It”

Just days after signaling that the material would be removed from Syria under IAEA supervision, Damascus reversed course. During the press conference, al-Shaibani declared that the nuclear material will remain in Syria under national custody and subject to IAEA safeguards.

“Syria has the right to use the material for civilian purposes.”
— Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani

“The minister affirmed that the Syrian Arab Republic exercises sovereign responsibility over all nuclear material on its territory, that the material remains in Syrian national custody, and that Syria will continue to perform its responsibilities in accordance with its international obligations and its national interests.”
— IAEA statement

Syria reaffirmed its sovereign and legal right to the civilian and peaceful use of nuclear energy, linked to energy, health, and water management.

The Legacy: Assad’s Secret Nuclear Program

The nuclear material is connected to the secret nuclear program developed under former President Bashar al-Assad, centered on the al-Kibar reactor in eastern Syria’s Deir Ezzor province.

On September 6, 2007, Israel destroyed the al-Kibar reactor in a covert airstrike – later known as Operation Orchard – largely dismantling Syria’s nuclear ambitions.

The IAEA concluded in 2011 that the site was “very likely” a nuclear reactor built with possible assistance from North Korea.

“This validates the longstanding evaluation of the IAEA that a nuclear facility was being built in secrecy.”
— IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi

Israel’s Monitoring and Threats

Israeli officials told Axios that the Assad regime had stored nuclear material intended for the al-Kibar project at Site 99 – a facility closely monitored by Israel for over two years.

Israeli officials said the IDF bombed the entrances to Site 99 shortly after Assad’s fall in an attempt to prevent access to the stored material.

Israel had reportedly threatened to bomb the site if the material was not removed, and made clear to the Trump administration that it would not accept the nuclear material remaining at the site.

A New Chapter – Or a New Threat?

Syria’s admission marks a significant turning point. For nearly two decades, the Assad regime denied the existence of its nuclear program and refused IAEA access. The new government, which came to power after Assad’s fall in late 2024, has taken what Grossi called a “courageous decision” to cooperate.

“We are starting to turn a page, and turning a page does not mean forgetting the past.”
— IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi

However, the decision to keep the nuclear material in Syria – rather than remove it – has raised fresh concerns. While the material cannot be directly used to manufacture a nuclear weapon, it could potentially be used in a “dirty bomb” – a conventional explosive designed to disperse radioactive material.

The question now is whether Syria’s new government will follow through on its commitment to transparency – or whether the Assad-era nuclear legacy will continue to haunt the region for years to come.

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Syrien räumt Besitz von Assad-Atommaterial ein – will es für “zivile Zwecke” behalten

In einer überraschenden Wende hat die neue syrische Regierung öffentlich die Existenz von Tonnen von Atommaterial eingeräumt, das vom gestürzten Assad-Regime zurückgelassen wurde, und angekündigt, den Bestand unter IAEA-Kontrollen für friedliche zivile Zwecke auf syrischem Boden zu behalten.

—

Die Entdeckung

Am 18. August 2026 gab IAEA-Generaldirektor Rafael Grossi bei einer gemeinsamen Pressekonferenz in Damaskus mit Syriens Außenminister Asaad al-Shaibani bekannt, dass IAEA-Inspektoren “mehrere Tonnen Kernmaterial” an einer nicht deklarierten Stätte in Syrien entdeckt hätten.

“Wir sprechen von einigen Tonnen Kernmaterial, das für schlechte Zwecke verwendet werden könnte.”
— IAEA-Generaldirektor Rafael Grossi

Bei dem Material handelt es sich unter anderem um Uranoxid (Yellowcake) – ein Urankonzentrat, das zu Brennstoff für Reaktoren oder bei höherer Anreicherung für Atomwaffen verarbeitet werden kann. Es wurde in einer geheimen Einrichtung namens “Site 99” gelagert.

Die neue syrische Regierung informierte die IAEA am 17. Juli 2026 freiwillig über das Material – das erste Mal, dass Damaskus mit der Behörde über sein nukleares Erbe kooperierte.

“Am 17. Juli haben wir der Behörde einen offiziellen Brief geschickt, in dem wir aus freiem Willen das Vorhandensein von Kernmaterial an einer nicht deklarierten Stätte innerhalb des vom früheren Regime hinterlassenen Erbes erklärt haben.”
— Syriens Außenminister Asaad al-Shaibani

—

Die Kehrtwende: “Syrien hat das Recht, es zu nutzen”

Nur wenige Tage nachdem signalisiert worden war, dass das Material unter IAEA-Aufsicht aus Syrien entfernt werden würde, drehte Damaskus den Spieß um. Während der Pressekonferenz erklärte al-Shaibani, dass das Kernmaterial unter nationaler Obhut in Syrien verbleiben und unter IAEA-Kontrollen gestellt werde.

“Syrien hat das Recht, das Material für zivile Zwecke zu nutzen.”
— Syriens Außenminister Asaad al-Shaibani

“Der Minister bekräftigte, dass die Syrische Arabische Republik die souveräne Verantwortung für alles Kernmaterial auf ihrem Territorium ausübt, dass das Material in syrischer nationaler Obhut verbleibt und dass Syrien weiterhin seine Verantwortung gemäß seinen internationalen Verpflichtungen und seinen nationalen Interessen wahrnehmen wird.”
— IAEA-Erklärung

Syrien bekräftigte sein souveränes und rechtmäßiges Recht auf die zivile und friedliche Nutzung der Kernenergie, verbunden mit Energie, Gesundheit und Wasserwirtschaft.

—

Das Erbe: Assads geheimes Atomprogramm

Das Kernmaterial steht im Zusammenhang mit dem geheimen Atomprogramm, das unter dem früheren Präsidenten Baschar al-Assad entwickelt wurde und sich auf den al-Kibar-Reaktor in der östlichen Provinz Deir ez-Zor konzentrierte.

Am 6. September 2007 zerstörte Israel den al-Kibar-Reaktor in einem verdeckten Luftangriff – später bekannt als Operation Orchard – und zerschlug damit weitgehend Syriens nukleare Ambitionen.

Die IAEA kam 2011 zu dem Schluss, dass es sich bei dem Gelände “sehr wahrscheinlich” um einen Atomreaktor handelte, der möglicherweise mit Unterstützung von Nordkorea gebaut worden war.

“Dies bestätigt die langjährige Einschätzung der IAEA, dass dort im Geheimen eine Atomanlage gebaut wurde.”
— IAEA-Generaldirektor Rafael Grossi

—

Israels Überwachung und Drohungen

Israelische Beamte sagten gegenüber Axios, dass das Assad-Regime Kernmaterial für das al-Kibar-Projekt in “Site 99” gelagert habe – einer Einrichtung, die von Israel über zwei Jahre lang genau überwacht wurde.

Israelische Beamte erklärten, dass die IDF kurz nach Assads Sturz die Zugänge zu Site 99 bombardiert habe, um den Zugang zu dem gelagerten Material zu verhindern.

Israel hatte Berichten zufolge mit der Bombardierung des Geländes gedroht, falls das Material nicht entfernt werde, und machte der Trump-Administration klar, dass es nicht akzeptieren werde, dass das Kernmaterial an dem Standort verbleibe.

—

Ein neues Kapitel – oder eine neue Bedrohung?

Syriens Eingeständnis markiert einen bedeutenden Wendepunkt. Fast zwei Jahrzehnte lang hatte das Assad-Regime die Existenz seines Atomprogramms bestritten und der IAEA den Zugang verweigert. Die neue Regierung, die nach Assads Sturz Ende 2024 an die Macht kam, hat nach Grossis Worten eine “mutige Entscheidung” zur Zusammenarbeit getroffen.

“Wir beginnen, ein neues Kapitel aufzuschlagen, und ein neues Kapitel bedeutet nicht, die Vergangenheit zu vergessen.”
— IAEA-Generaldirektor Rafael Grossi

Die Entscheidung, das Kernmaterial in Syrien zu belassen – anstatt es zu entfernen – hat jedoch neue Bedenken geweckt. Das Material kann zwar nicht direkt zur Herstellung einer Atomwaffe verwendet werden, könnte aber möglicherweise für eine “schmutzige Bombe” genutzt werden – einen konventionellen Sprengsatz, der radioaktives Material verteilen soll.

Die Frage ist nun, ob die neue syrische Regierung ihr Bekenntnis zur Transparenz einhalten wird – oder ob das nukleare Erbe der Assad-Ära die Region noch jahrelang belasten wird.

—

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Syria Sentences Bashar al-Assad to Death in Absentia – As Former Al-Qaeda Commander Leads Country

Syria Sentences Bashar al‑Assad to Death in Absentia – As Former Al‑Qaeda Commander Now Leads the Country

A Damascus criminal court has sentenced former Syrian president Bashar al‑Assad to death in absentia, convicting him of crimes against humanity, war crimes, premeditated murder, torture and arbitrary arrest committed during the country’s nearly 14‑year civil war. The landmark ruling also condemned his brother Maher al‑Assad and five other former military and security officials to death.

—

The Verdict

On August 11, 2026, Judge Fakhr al‑Din al‑Aryan of the Fourth Criminal Court in Damascus delivered the historic judgment. The court found Assad guilty of “premeditated and intentional murder of more than one person and of children, torture, arbitrary arrest and crimes against humanity”.

The trial lasted nearly four months. Assad, who fled to Russia after his regime was overthrown in December 2024, was tried in absentia along with most other defendants. The only accused to appear in person was Atef Najib, Assad’s cousin and former security chief in Daraa province, who was arrested in early 2025 and stood trial in a cage wearing a prison uniform.

In addition to Assad and Najib, the court sentenced:

· Maher al‑Assad – Bashar’s younger brother and commander of the feared Fourth Armoured Division – to death in absentia
· Fahd al‑Freij – former defence minister – to death in absentia
· Four other unnamed former military and security officials

—

The Crimes

The charges stem from Assad’s brutal crackdown on the 2011 pro‑democracy protests, which spiralled into a civil war that killed hundreds of thousands of Syrians.

The court established that Assad, as “the highest decision‑maker”, bore direct responsibility for directing state institutions to commit systematic violations. His brother Maher led the Fourth Division, which spearheaded the crackdown on protests, recaptured territory and was accused of running a drug trafficking network to enrich the regime.

Atef Najib, the former head of political security in Daraa, was convicted for his role in the 2011 torture of 15 teenage boys who had graffitied anti‑Assad slogans – an event widely seen as the spark that ignited the nationwide uprising.

—

Reaction in Syria: “The Joy Is Indescribable”

As news of the verdict spread, crowds gathered outside the courthouse in Damascus, chanting, applauding and waving Syrian flags. Celebrations also erupted in Daraa, the birthplace of the revolution.

“The joy is indescribable. God willing we will see Bashar al‑Assad and all his aides hanging on the gallows.” – A man in Damascus, holding a photo of his late father.

Nouha al‑Masri, a prosecutor in the case who lost her brother in the 2011 Daraa massacre, told the BBC:

“We have been waiting for 15 years to reclaim even a small part of our rights… In the new Syria, there will be no impunity from this day forward.”

—

The New Government: From Terrorist to President

The court that convicted Assad sits in a Syria that has undergone a radical transformation. The regime that fell in December 2024 was overthrown by a coalition of rebel forces led by Hay’at Tahrir al‑Sham (HTS) – a group with deep roots in Al‑Qaeda and still designated as a terrorist organisation by the United States, the United Kingdom and the European Union.

The man who now leads Syria is Ahmed al‑Sharaa, formerly known as Abu Mohammad al‑Jolani. Just a few years ago, he was one of the most wanted terrorists in the world, with a **$10 million U.S. bounty** on his head. The U.S. designated him a “specially designated global terrorist” in 2013, and the FBI maintained a Rewards for Justice programme offering the $10 million reward for information leading to his capture as recently as 2017.

In January 2025, al‑Sharaa was declared Syria’s transitional president. An interim constitutional declaration came into effect in March, and a new government was established under HTS leadership. Al‑Sharaa has since appointed a 210‑member parliament, with 70 lawmakers directly appointed by him, and has consolidated executive authority while operating an extensive patronage network.

The irony is stark: a man once hunted by the U.S. as a terrorist now meets with American officials. In November 2025, al‑Sharaa visited the White House, where President Trump received him. U.S. officials have acknowledged direct contacts with HTS, and while they have noted al‑Sharaa’s welcome comments about protecting minority and women’s rights, they remain sceptical about his long‑term intentions. The U.S. embassy in Syria, meanwhile, has not removed its “WANTED” notice for the man it once offered $10 million to capture.

Britain, too, continues to outlaw HTS, while the EU maintains financial sanctions against al‑Jolani. The new Syrian leadership thus exists in a state of diplomatic limbo: internationally recognised as the de facto government, yet led by individuals still designated as terrorists by the very powers now negotiating with them.

—

Symbolic Justice or Practical Dead End?

While the verdict is a powerful symbol of transitional justice, its practical impact is limited. Assad and his brother remain in Moscow, where they were granted asylum on humanitarian grounds. Russia has previously declined extradition requests.

Human rights activists warn that the death sentence could complicate any future extradition, as countries generally refuse to surrender suspects to nations where they face execution. Syria’s new authorities have said they will pursue “international legal avenues” to try to prosecute the two men.

—

A New Chapter for Syria

The trial is part of a broader effort by Syria’s interim government to break with the Assad dynasty’s five‑decade legacy of repression. Since the regime fell in December 2024, authorities have detained numerous former officials and launched investigations into atrocities.

The verdict was described by prosecutors as “as big as the sacrifices that Syrians gave for 15 years”. For many, it is a first step toward accountability – even if the former dictator himself remains beyond reach.

Yet the question of who now holds power in Syria remains deeply uncomfortable for the international community. The man who signed the order to try Assad is himself a former Al‑Qaeda commander, still wanted by many of the same nations that applaud the verdict. In Syria, justice for Assad’s victims is being delivered by a government that, until recently, was itself considered a terrorist organisation. The paradox could not be more acute.

—

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Syrien verurteilt Assad zum Tode – während Ex-Terrorist das Land regiert

Ein Strafgericht in Damaskus hat den früheren syrischen Präsidenten Baschar al-Assad in Abwesenheit zum Tode verurteilt. Der Schuldspruch umfasst Verbrechen gegen die Menschlichkeit, Kriegsverbrechen, Mord, Folter und willkürliche Verhaftungen während des fast 14-jährigen Bürgerkriegs. Das historische Urteil verurteilt auch seinen Bruder Maher al-Assad und fünf weitere ehemalige Militär- und Sicherheitsbeamte zum Tode.

—

Das Urteil

Am 11. August 2026 verkündete Richter Fakhr al-Din al-Aryan des Vierten Strafgerichts in Damaskus das historische Urteil. Das Gericht befand Assad für schuldig der “vorsätzlichen und absichtlichen Tötung mehrerer Personen und von Kindern, Folter, willkürlicher Verhaftung und Verbrechen gegen die Menschlichkeit”.

Der Prozess dauerte fast vier Monate. Assad, der nach dem Sturz seines Regimes im Dezember 2024 nach Russland geflohen war, wurde zusammen mit den meisten anderen Angeklagten in Abwesenheit verhandelt. Der einzige Angeklagte, der persönlich vor Gericht erschien, war Atef Nadschib, Assads Cousin und ehemaliger Sicherheitschef in der Provinz Daraa, der Anfang 2025 verhaftet wurde und in einem Käfig in einer Gefängnisuniform vor Gericht stand.

Zusätzlich zu Assad und Nadschib verurteilte das Gericht:

· Maher al-Assad – Baschars jüngerer Bruder und Kommandeur der gefürchteten Vierten Panzerdivision – in Abwesenheit zum Tode
· Fahd al-Freij – ehemaliger Verteidigungsminister – in Abwesenheit zum Tode
· Vier weitere namentlich nicht genannte ehemalige Militär- und Sicherheitsbeamte

—

Die Verbrechen

Die Anklage geht auf Assads brutale Niederschlagung der prodemokratischen Proteste von 2011 zurück, die sich zu einem Bürgerkrieg ausweitete, der Hunderttausende Syrer das Leben kostete.

Das Gericht stellte fest, dass Assad als “höchster Entscheidungsträger” die direkte Verantwortung dafür trug, dass staatliche Institutionen systematische Menschenrechtsverletzungen begingen. Sein Bruder Maher führte die Vierte Division an, die die Niederschlagung der Proteste anführte, Territorium zurückeroberte und beschuldigt wurde, ein Drogenhandelsnetzwerk zur Bereicherung des Regimes betrieben zu haben.

Atef Nadschib, der ehemalige Chef der politischen Sicherheit in Daraa, wurde wegen seiner Rolle bei der Folter von 15 Jugendlichen im Jahr 2011 verurteilt, die anti-Assad-Parolen gesprüht hatten – ein Ereignis, das weithin als der Funke gilt, der den landesweiten Aufstand entzündete.

—

Reaktionen in Syrien: “Die Freude ist unbeschreiblich”

Als die Nachricht vom Urteil bekannt wurde, versammelten sich Menschenmengen vor dem Gerichtsgebäude in Damaskus, skandierten, applaudierten und schwenkten syrische Flaggen. Auch in Daraa, dem Geburtsort der Revolution, brachen Feierlichkeiten aus.

“Die Freude ist unbeschreiblich. So Gott will, werden wir Baschar al-Assad und alle seine Helfer am Galgen hängen sehen.” – Ein Mann in Damaskus, der ein Foto seines verstorbenen Vaters hielt.

Nouha al-Masri, eine Staatsanwältin in dem Fall, die ihren Bruder bei dem Massaker von Daraa 2011 verlor, sagte der BBC:

“Wir haben 15 Jahre darauf gewartet, auch nur einen kleinen Teil unserer Rechte zurückzuerlangen… Im neuen Syrien wird es von diesem Tag an keine Straflosigkeit mehr geben.”

—

Die neue Regierung: Vom Terroristen zum Präsidenten

Das Gericht, das Assad verurteilte, tagt in einem Syrien, das einen radikalen Wandel durchgemacht hat. Das Regime, das im Dezember 2024 fiel, wurde von einer Koalition von Rebellenkräften unter Führung der Hay’at Tahrir al-Scham (HTS) gestürzt – einer Gruppe mit tiefen Wurzeln in Al-Qaida, die von den USA, Großbritannien und der EU immer noch als terroristische Organisation eingestuft wird.

Der Mann, der heute Syrien regiert, ist Ahmed al-Scharaa, früher bekannt als Abu Mohammad al-Dscholani. Vor wenigen Jahren war er einer der meistgesuchten Terroristen der Welt mit einer US-Kopfgeld von 10 Millionen Dollar. Die USA hatten ihn 2013 als “speziell ausgewiesenen globalen Terroristen” eingestuft, und das FBI unterhielt noch bis 2017 ein Programm, das 10 Millionen Dollar für Informationen zu seiner Ergreifung aussetzte.

Im Januar 2025 wurde al-Scharaa zum syrischen Übergangspräsidenten ernannt. Im März trat eine vorläufige Verfassungserklärung in Kraft, und unter der Führung der HTS wurde eine neue Regierung gebildet. Al-Scharaa hat seitdem ein 210-köpfiges Parlament ernannt, wobei 70 Abgeordnete direkt von ihm bestimmt wurden, und hat die Exekutivgewalt konsolidiert, während er ein ausgedehntes Patronagenetzwerk betreibt.

Die Ironie ist frappierend: Ein Mann, der einst von den USA als Terrorist gejagt wurde, trifft sich heute mit amerikanischen Beamten. Im November 2025 besuchte al-Scharaa das Weiße Haus, wo Präsident Trump ihn empfing. US-Beamte haben direkte Kontakte mit der HTS eingeräumt und zwar al-Scharaas willkommene Äußerungen zum Schutz von Minderheiten- und Frauenrechten zur Kenntnis genommen, bleiben jedoch skeptisch, was seine langfristigen Absichten betrifft. Die US-Botschaft in Syrien hat unterdessen die “WANTED”-Mitteilung für den Mann, für dessen Ergreifung sie einst 10 Millionen Dollar ausgesetzt hatte, nicht entfernt.

Auch Großbritannien ächtet die HTS weiterhin, während die EU Finanzsanktionen gegen al-Dscholani aufrechterhält. Die neue syrische Führung existiert somit in einem diplomatischen Schwebezustand: international als De-facto-Regierung anerkannt, jedoch von Personen geführt, die von denselben Mächten, die nun mit ihnen verhandeln, immer noch als Terroristen eingestuft werden.

—

Symbolische Gerechtigkeit oder praktische Sackgasse?

Das Urteil ist zwar ein mächtiges Symbol für die Übergangsjustiz, seine praktische Wirkung ist jedoch begrenzt. Assad und sein Bruder bleiben in Moskau, wo ihnen aus humanitären Gründen Asyl gewährt wurde. Russland hat bisher Auslieferungsersuchen abgelehnt.

Menschenrechtsaktivisten warnen, dass das Todesurteil jede künftige Auslieferung erschweren könnte, da Länder in der Regel keine Verdächtigen an Staaten ausliefern, in denen ihnen die Hinrichtung droht. Die neuen syrischen Behörden haben angekündigt, “internationale Rechtswege” zu verfolgen, um die beiden Männer zu verfolgen.

—

Ein neues Kapitel für Syrien

Der Prozess ist Teil der umfassenderen Bemühungen der syrischen Übergangsregierung, mit dem jahrzehntelangen Erbe der Unterdrückung durch die Assad-Dynastie zu brechen. Seit dem Sturz des Regimes im Dezember 2024 haben die Behörden zahlreiche ehemalige Beamte inhaftiert und Ermittlungen zu Gräueltaten eingeleitet.

Das Urteil wurde von den Staatsanwälten als “so groß wie die Opfer, die die Syrer 15 Jahre lang gebracht haben” bezeichnet. Für viele ist es ein erster Schritt zur Rechenschaft – selbst wenn der frühere Diktator selbst unerreichbar bleibt.

Die Frage, wer nun in Syrien die Macht innehat, bleibt für die internationale Gemeinschaft zutiefst unbequem. Der Mann, der den Befehl zur Verurteilung Assads unterzeichnete, ist selbst ein ehemaliger Al-Qaida-Kommandeur, der von vielen der gleichen Nationen, die das Urteil bejubeln, immer noch gesucht wird. In Syrien wird Gerechtigkeit für Assads Opfer von einer Regierung verlangt, die bis vor kurzem selbst als terroristische Organisation galt. Der Widerspruch könnte nicht größer sein.

—

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Syria Air Raid on Film

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CRYPTOME – US Special Forces in Syria Photos

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US special forces in YPG uniforms were pictured close to the Tishrin dam in Syria’s Aleppo province. [Image]

If the alleged location above is correct, this is the Google Earth photo, 3 February 2014
36°38’05.28″ N 38°17’09.86″ E [Image]

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TOP-SECRET – U.S. Army TRADOC Report: Syria Threat Tactics

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Threat Tactics Report: Syria

Page Count: 31 pages
Date: February 2016
Restriction: None
Originating Organization: U.S. Army, TRADOC G-2 ACE Threats Integration
File Type: pdf
File Size: 1,976,467 bytes
File Hash (SHA-256): FFB6FDB1C0299D5C9EDE446AE2C5B254600B83F030384CC3A02FE86581086D08

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The Syrian military is a heavy mechanized force, primarily designed to defend against a similarly composed external foe. The heavily armored force is not optimized for the type of combat experienced in Syria’s civil war.

The Syrian military is greatly diminished due to desertions and combat losses and had to broaden its defense capabilities to include a number of hybrid threat actors while significantly adapting its tactics and techniques in order to maintain its ability to protect the regime of President Bashar al Assad.

The Syrian military relies on outside actors to help defend its government, namely Hezbollah and the governments of Iran and Russia for arms, strategy, and personnel.

The reported use of chemical weapons by the Syrian military against its citizens represents the Assad government’s willingness to ignore law of warfare principles in order to achieve its objectives, regardless of global opinion.

…

Syria and its ongoing civil war represent an operational environment (OE) that includes many of the characteristics illustrative of the complexities of modern warfare. Now in its fourth year, the civil war in Syria has lured a variety of threat actors from the Middle East and beyond. What began as a protest for improved opportunities and human rights has devolved into a full-scale civil war. As the Syrian military and security forces fought to subdue the civil unrest across the country, these protest groups responded with increasing violence aided by internal and external forces with a long history of terrorist activity. Ill-suited for the scale of combat that was unfolding across the country, Syrian forces turned to their allies for help, including Hezbollah and Iran. The inclusion of these forces has in many ways transformed the military of President Bashar al Assad from a conventional defensive force to a counterinsurgency force.

TRADOC G-2 ACE Threats Integration (ACE-TI) is the source of the Threat Tactics Report (TTR) series of products. TTRs serve to explain to the Army training community how an actor fights. Elements that contribute to this understanding may include an actor’s doctrine, force structure, weapons and equipment, education, and warfighting functions. There will be a discussion of the actor’s tactics and techniques, and recent examples of tactical actions will be described if they exist. An actor may be regular or irregular, and a TTR will have a discussion of what a particular actor’s capabilities mean to the US and its allies.

A TTR will also identify where the conditions specific to the actor are present in Decisive Action Training Environment (DATE) and other training materials so that these conditions can easily be implemented across all training venues.

This particular TTR will describe and assess the structure and capabilities of the Syrian military and its allies in the fight against Sunni opposition forces. Topics will include force structure, combat techniques, military capabilities, irregular forces, and unique capabilities. It is the intent to provide the reader with knowledge of the Syrian military strategy, tactics, and techniques in order to make informed decisions about how best to replicate these conditions in US Army training events using the tools and exercise design methods contained in ACE-TI’s materials and products. The scope of this Threat Tactics report (TTR) covers the Syrian military, included but not limited to regular forces (army, navy, air force, special purpose forces) and paramilitary organizations (Hezbollah, the national defense forces, other foreign militias, and criminal elements) as they relate to the capabilities of the Syrian military.

…

The Syrian military is dealing with the effects of a four-year long civil war. Once considered among the most capable in the Middle East, the Syrian military has lost much of its personnel to combat and desertion to antigovernment rebel groups and extremist organizations. Conscription is mandatory for all qualified males at age 18. Women are not required to join the Armed forces but some volunteer. The officer corps is ethnically diverse, however senior officers usually come from the more politically loyal Alawi and Druze populations. Membership in the dominant Ba’ath party is not a requirement but is necessary for advancement to higher positions.

The Syrian military has suffered from a wide variety of problems including command and control (C2) issues and sustainment and logistics issues due to mismanagement of soldier professional development and a challenging modernization effort. The vast majority of Syrian military equipment is Soviet-era /Russian design and its doctrine has historically reflected the Soviet model. Syria has traditionally been a heavy mechanized force consisting of approximately 19 mechanized infantry brigades and 22 tank brigades. In addition to the large heavy forces, there are approximately 11 regiments of special purpose forces. At the beginning of the current civil war the Syrian military was estimated to be between 220,000 and 250,000 soldiers. The other branches of the Syrian military, the navy and the air force, have an estimated 4,000 and 30,000 members respectively. All branches of the military place a premium on loyalty to the government of President Bashar al Assad; the most loyal units in the Syrian military usually receive the most modern weapons and are the best trained.

The Syrian navy is one of the smallest in the region. Due to this fact, there are no large naval units such as fleets or squadrons, instead each ship is considered a separate unit. The coastal defense has a naval infantry consisting of 350-500 troops and it is charged with protecting Syria’s 193 km coast. See the weapons and equipment section of this report for a list of relevant naval vessels.

The Syrian air force is one of the largest in the Middle East and is the Syrian government’s main advantage against the opposition. In 2007 it was estimated to have 584 fixed wing and 210 rotary wing aircraft. However, a lack of spare parts and maintenance for the mostly Russian fleet created a significant effect on the readiness of these aircraft, especially the attack helicopters and offensive fixed-wing aircraft. For this reason many pilots are using training aircraft to conduct combat missions. These aircraft perform a range of missions including attack/combat, reconnaissance, transport, and training. Most aircraft are from Russian and former Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) countries. Syrian air force operations include deep strikes into enemy-held territory as well as support to Syrian army ground forces. The Syrian air force uses a variety of munitions including improvised bombs known as barrel bombs against rebel and civilian targets. An expeditionary force that attempts to intervene in the current crisis in Syria would need to control the Syrian air force prior to ground operations through either lethal attacks or a diplomatic agreement such as a no-fly zone. See the weapons and equipment section of this report for a list of relevant aircraft.

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Unveiled – U.S. Army TRADOC Report: The Battle for Sinjar, Iraq

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U.S. Army TRADOC Report: The Battle for Sinjar, Iraq

April 25, 2016

Battle for Sinjar, Iraq

Page Count: 11 pages
Date: April 2016
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Originating Organization: U.S. Army, TRADOC G-2 ACE Threats Integration
File Type: pdf
File Size: 1,216,880 bytes
File Hash (SHA-256): BABCBF1726FA96A35298B2B84BECABB7AFC5AE61ECD5D285BBAA67F70819B18F

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In the summer of 2014, ISIL forces pushed Peshmerga forces from key areas in Nineveh province, Iraq, threatening the government seat of the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) in Erbil and capturing Mosul.

Pressure to respond to a growing humanitarian crisis, fueled by media coverage of Sinjar’s Yazidis fleeing ISIL violence, led to calls for an international response that included US and allied bombing of ISIL positions.

ISIL mitigated the effects of bombing by building a sophisticated network of tunnels that connected key buildings.

ISIL used marksmen, snipers, ambushes, improvised explosive devices (IEDs), and suicide bombers to slow the Kurdish advance, but eventually conserved most of its force by exfiltrating the area and not engaging in a decisive battle.

In November 2015, an alliance of Kurdish factions resulted in recapturing ISIL-held territory in Nineveh province—including Sinjar, which sits on ISIL’s Highway 47 supply route connecting ISIL-held Raqqa, Syria, and Mosul Iraq.

While successful in Sinjar, the alliance of the KRG’s Peshmerga, Kurdistan Worker’s Party (PKK), the Syrian Popular Protection Unit (YPG), and Yazidi militias (YBS) is fraught with ISIL-exploitable fault lines.

…

This Tactical Action Report (TAR) provides information on the capture and subsequent recapture of Sinjar, a town at the foot of the Sinjar Mountains. The Nineveh Offensive, of which Sinjar was a key target, led to the capture of a large part of northern Iraq and included the occupation of Mosul. ISIL pushed Peshmerga forces from the area and threatened Erbil, the government seat of the KRG in 2014. A growing humanitarian crisis developed as ISIL began purging villages in the Sinjar area of the minority group known as Yazidis. Thousands were killed, kidnapped, or forced to flee their homes. Many Yazidis retreated to the Sinjar Mountains where they were besieged by ISIL fighters. These circumstances led to President Barack Obama ordering air strikes to protect Erbil, where US military advisors were headquartered, and to relieve the displaced Yazidi civilians. Over a year later Peshmerga fighters, with the help of other Kurdish factions, pushed ISIL forces out of Sinjar and other surrounding areas and severed a key supply route connecting ISIL-held Raqqa, Syria, with Mosul, Iraq.

Operational Environment Background—Sinjar

Sinjar1 is a strategically-located Iraqi town in northwestern Nineveh province. It lies along a major ISIL east-west supply route that connects Mosul in Iraq with Raqqa in Syria—two important ISIL-held cities. Sinjar is approximately 52 km east of the Syrian border and 117 km west of Mosul. It is positioned at the foot of the Sinjar Mountains, an east-west mountain range rising 1,463 m above the surrounding alluvial steppe plains.

Sinjar is populated primarily by a Kurdish religious minority called the Yazidis. The Yazidis are particularly vulnerable to violence and persecution, having been the object of hatred for centuries because of their religious practices. Yazidis are ethnically Kurdish, but their religion combines elements of Islam, ancient Persian Zoroastrianism, and Eastern Mediterranean Mithraism. While Yazidis are monotheists, they believe in a fallen angel who serves as an intermediary between God and man. To Muslims, this intermediary resembles the Quranic devil. Yazidis are, therefore, considered devil worshippers by their Muslim neighbors. With isolated geography and a history of persecution, the Yazidis rarely intermarry and do not accept converts, further distinguishing themselves.

In June 2014, ISIL began an offensive in Nineveh province and captured Mosul, the second-largest city in Iraq, that same month. This ISIL victory gave momentum to a push throughout Kurdish Peshmerga-held Nineveh province. On 1 August 2014, ISIL attacked a Peshmerga unit in the town of Zumar, a small Kurdish-majority outpost 40 km northwest of Mosul. ISIL killed 14 Peshmerga soldiers, while the group sustained 100 casualties and 38 members were taken prisoner in the attack. On 2–3 August, in a serious setback for Kurdish Peshmerga soldiers, ISIL succeeded in taking three strategic towns: Zumar, Wana, and Sinjar. Zumar is an oil-rich area that also lies on a road leading to Syria; Wana is a town on the Tigris river within striking distance of the Mosul dam; and Sinjar is a town on a major supply line that connects ISIL-held Mosul in Iraq with ISIL-held Raqqa in Syria. The towns form a triangle west from Mosul to the borders of Syria and Turkey. The capture of these towns gave ISIL both momentum and proximity to seriously threaten those protecting the Mosul dam, which was temporarily captured and then lost by ISIL between 7–18 August.

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Unveiled – U.S. State Department Iraq-Syria Refugee Crisis in Europe Map March 2016

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Europe: Displacement Snapshot

Page Count: 1 page
Date: March 15, 2016
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Originating Organization: Department of State, Humanitarian Information Unit
File Type: pdf
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Click to access DoS-EuropeRefugeeCrisis.pdf

Asylum seekers and other migrants are arriving in Europe and encountering rapidly changing border controls as they seek transit through Europe. The EU is implementing its “hotspot” approach for new arrival registration in Italy and Greece. This is a snapshot of the situation based on available unclassified data as of March 4, 2016.

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Public Intelligence – US State Department Map – Iraq – Syria Conflict without Borders

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TOP-SECRET- UN Satellite Photos – Syria, Jordan Turkey

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The following map and satellite photos depict refugee camps in Syria, Jordan and Turkey fleeing the ongoing conflict in Iraq and Syria. It is estimated that over four million people have been displaced according to a U.N. report released in early July. A ZIP archive (7.8 MB) containing all five documents is also available.

Southern Syria: Population & Internally Displaced Persons July 2015	Download
Displacement in Dar’a and Qunaitra Governorates Total Population (July 2015 ): 746,095 IDP Population (static since June): 275,680 Additional July IDPs: 72,900* Total current IDP population in July: 348,580 meaning that 47 % of the population are IDPs.

Bab Al Salame IDP Camp in A’Zaz District, Syria as of 05 June 2015	Download
This map illustrates satellite-detected shelters and other buildings at the Bab Al Salame IDP Camp in A’Zaz District, Syria. As of 05 June 2015, a total of 1,612 shelters were detected as well as 222 infrastructures and support buildings within the 23 hectares of the camp. This is a preliminary analysis & has not yet been validated in the field. Please send ground feedback to UNITAR / UNOSAT.

Oncunipar Refugee Camp in Merkez District, Kilis Province, Turkey as of 05 June 2015

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This map illustrates satellite-detected shelters in the Oncunipar Refugee Camp in Merkez District, Kilis Province, Turkey. As of 05 June 2015, UNOSAT analyzed a total of 2,469 shelters as well as 67 infrastructure and support buildings within the 40.7 ha of the camp. A new 10 ha area has been built since December 2014 containing 506 of the 2,469 shelter structures. This is a preliminary analysis and has not yet been validated in the field. Please send ground feedback to UNITAR – UNOSAT.

Sujjo IDP Camp in A’Zaz District, Syria as of 05 June 2015	Download
This map illustrates satellite-detected shelters and other buildings at the Sujjo IDP Camp in A’Zaz District, Syria. As of 05 June 2015, a total of 955 shelters were detected as well as 74 infrastructures and support buildings within the 12 hectares of the camp. This is a preliminary analysis & has not yet been validated in the field. Please send ground feedback to UNITAR / UNOSAT.

Al Zaatari refugee camp in Mafraq Governorate, Jordan as of 06 July 2014

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This map illustrates satellite-detected shelters and other buildings at the Al Zaatari refugee camp in Mafraq Governorate, Jordan. As of 06 July 2014 a total of 29,982 shelters were detected as well as 1,880 infrastructure and support buildings within the 534.4 hectares of the camp. Between 06 April 2014 and 06 July 2014, a total of 4,257 shelters closed or were moved, and a total of 2,774 shelters were constructed, and the number of shelters has thus decreased by about 1,298 since the previous UNITAR/UNOSAT assessment. This indicates an approximate 4.1% decrease in the number of shelters between 06 April 2014 and 06 July 2014. This is a preliminary analysis and has not yet been validated in the field; structure locations subject to a spatial error margin of +/- three meters. Shelters grouped under plastic sheeting were estimated by average household size and may be a source of error. Please send ground feedback to UNITAR/UNOSAT.

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Unveiled – U.S. Army TRISA Report: The Battle for al Qusayr, Syria

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The following report is part of a series produced by the TRADOC G-2 Intelligence Support Activity (TRISA). While the reports contain no control markings, they are not released publicly.

Threats Integration Team Threat Report

15 pages
June 2013

The al Qusayr area of operations is a critical logistics hub for the rebel forces fighting against the Syrian government known as the Free Syrian Army (FSA).

A number of external actors and international terror organizations have joined the fight in the al Assi basin on both sides of the conflict.

The al Assi basin and the city of al Qusayr can be considered critical terrain and key to the future outcome of the conflict in Syria.

Conventional and unconventional as well as irregular forces are all present in this area and are adapting tactics in order to achieve a decisive outcome for their cause.

…

Al Qusayr, a village in Syria’s Homs district, is a traditional transit point for personnel and goods traveling across the Lebanon/Syria border. Located in the southern half of the Orontes valley known as the al Assi basin, its proximity to northern Lebanon has made this region an important logistical area for the rebel forces of the Free Syrian Army (FSA) and the Syrian Arab Army (SAA), in what has become known as the Homs front. A typical border region, the al Assi basin’s inhabitants are multinational as well as multi-ethnic with a complex makeup of Sunni, Shia, Alawi, and Christian religions that claim both Lebanese and Syrian Citizenship. Due to the proximity to the border region, and the main north and south highway from Homs to Damascus, al Qusayr is a pivotal point in the Syrian conflict for both the FSA and the pro-regime SAA.

Weapons and materiel support from Lebanon to Syria moves via the Bekaa valley into al Qusayr. In order to maintain their lines of communication with Sunni sympathizers in Tripoli, Lebanon, the FSA uses a network of rural and urban inhabitants to act as couriers, scouts, and transporters to get supplies and weapons to the battle zones in Homs and Damascus and to transport wounded out of the combat zone. As the fighting continues in al Qusayr and the rest of the Homs district, Sunni families wait on the other side of the border in Lebanon to support the fight and to get news about their property. Islamic groups such as Fatah al Islam had been noted to be operating in al Qusayr providing expertise on explosives and other terror tactics.

Support in the area is by no means restricted to the Sunni insurgency and the FSA. The Shia population, which is thought to be mainly rural, as well as many Christians, tend to support the SAA and the regime, and may be providing intelligence on the FSA and sympathizers in the region. The highway from the large port town of Tartus to the Syrian capital of Damascus goes through Homs City and the al Assi basin, making it an important supply route for the Syrian government and government security forces. To control Homs is to effectively control the link from Damascus to the Mediterranean. Control of Homs City will hinder coordination between northern and southern Syria substantially. Activities in recent months by the terrorist organization Hezbollah indicate that the area is one of the main regions for foreign support to the al Assad regime. Shia families have also fled to nearby Lebanon and are waiting to see who will win the war before going back to claim their property. Due to the importance of the region, both sides have struggled to maintain control since the beginning of the Arab spring protests in 2011.

When anti-government protests turned violent, pro-government forces relied on force to control the situation. This escalation of the conflict provided the rebel forces both a justification for their actions and a cause for foreign fighters (mainly from Lebanon) to enter into the battle. As the threat intensified, the government was able to increase its activities in the name of self-defense, and the insurgency took root in Syria. Neither side had the experience or resources to take the conflict to a culmination without assistance from their respective benefactors. The al Assi basin, with its access to Lebanon, as well as its access to the Alleppo-Homs-Damascus corridor, became a key area of interest for both sides in the conflict.

…

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Exposed – U.S. Army TRISA Threat Tactics Report: Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant

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The following report is part of a series produced by the TRADOC G-2 Intelligence Support Activity (TRISA) Complex Operational Environment and Threat Integration Directorate (CTID). While the reports contain no control markings, they are not released publicly.

TRISA-CTID Threat Tactics Report: ISIL

30 pages

The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) has risen to prominence as a danger to peace and a regional threat with global impact. This perception comes, in large measure, because of its successes in Syria and then a rapid takeover of northern Iraq. Its military victories are largely due to successful recruiting, intra-insurgent conflict, large cash reserves, and ineffective opponents. There is much to learn from how ISIL is fighting. The ready availability of recruits, many of whom are foreigners attracted to ISIL successes, and large amounts of money for payroll and purchasing war materiel are critical considerations, but it is also important to consider how ISIL is fighting on the ground.

This report is intended to identify key aspects of tactics and techniques used in ISIL’s actions in Iraq and Syria. ISIL, unlike its predecessors and competitors, is a paramilitary insurgency. While the baseline techniques being used by ISIL do not differ significantly from those it has employed since its early days as an al-Qaeda affiliate in Iraq, its capabilities have increased in scope and complexity. Techniques making use of suicide vehicle-borne IEDS (SVBIED) and vehicle-borne IEDs (VBIED) have become more sophisticated. ISIL’s use of information warfare (INFOWAR) has become more refined and pervasive with the adaptation of social media technology and increased technical competency among recruits. ISIL has targeted infrastructure such as dams, oil refineries, and power plants for use in population control and financing. ISIL has also demonstrated the ability to execute military tactics that require a level of competence and control uncommon in recent experience.

Executive Summary

• ISIL is an evolution of an insurgent group that has changed its name to reflect an increasing geographic vision.
• ISIL’s advantage to date has been an increasingly large number of fighters and deep cash reserves to fund its operations. This provides greater capacity to organize, train, and equip like a military organization.
• ISIL executes military tactics to the best of its capability. This is a greater capability than that shown by previous insurgencies in the area, but still not best practice in a number of warfighting functions and key tasks.
• High value targets for ISIL have included such infrastructure as dams and oil refineries, which also contribute to its cash flow.
• Social media use has reached a new level of refinement as ISIL has capitalized on Western recruits’ language skills and a new generation of technically savvy apprentices.

…

Command and Control

Abu Bakr al Baghdadi, the ISIL-appointed caliph, governs through a bureaucratic organization that includes close advisors and specialty, regional, and local councils. Al Baghdadi requires a theologically-based pledge of loyalty and fealty. Until recent US airstrikes, ISIL had relatively unfettered movement capabilities along a corridor spanning northern Syria and Iraq. Command and control under these circumstances did not require the kinds of considerations now necessary with the US airstrikes targeting ISIL communication nodes. The use of couriers is likely to become an important part of communicating to ISIL’s network of fighters.
ISIL’s growth has come from its ability to coopt, dominate, or absorb competitor organizations. Some of these organizations may only be fair-weather friends and leave the coalition when the time is deemed right. There is a very real chance that ISIL leadership will lose control through splintering and infighting. With a varied and diverse demographic of foreign fighters, Sunni tribes, former Baathist leaders, etc., the challenge for ISIL will be controlling both the message and the fight.

A key element of ISIL’s command and control infrastructure is social media. During the attack on Mosul, for example, ISIL sent tens of thousands of tweets in a way that avoided the Twitter spam trigger. While social media companies are constantly identifying and deleting questionable accounts, it is easy to simply open a new account. A new, tech-savvy generation of jihadists opens up new means of communicating to vast audiences for recruiting, propaganda, and bureaucratic control.

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Anti-Armor

ISIL’s anti-armor arsenal now contains a number of highly effective weapons that can be used against Iraqi and Syrian security forces. Anti-armor weapons with shape charges increase the likelihood of targeted armor vehicle crew casualties, but may not completely destroy the targeted vehicle during the engagement.15 However, due to Iraqi Security Forces’ (ISF) challenges in maintaining larger armored vehicles like the M1, it is possible this platform has been denied future use. The most common systems in use right now are the Kornet, the M79 Osa Rocket Launcher, and the ubiquitous rocket-propelled grenade launcher. In addition, ISIL has also captured a number of Russian and US tanks which, while more difficult to maintain and larger targets, can be used to attack enemy convoys.

Not surprisingly, these weapons are of choice use for the prosecution of offensive actions like assaults and ambushes. In July 2013, ISIL fighters ambushed an ISF convoy in the Khalidiyah area in Anbar Province. The convoy consisted of at least three M1A1 Abrams tanks and nine M113 armored personnel carriers. The attack occurred on a rural dirt road, initiated with IEDs and followed with anti-tank fire. The graphic below shows the missile hitting the tank. Even more recently, on 20 April 2014, ISF lost a formation with mixed armored vehicles including T-62 tanks.

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Unveiled – U.S. Army TRISA Threat Report: Syrian Suicide Bombings

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TRADOC G2 Intelligence Support Activity (TRISA) OEA Team Threat Report

19 pages
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February 17, 2012

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Revealed by Cryptome – Cyber Warriors in the Middle East: Syrian E-Army

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Exposed – U.S. State Department Iraq-Syria Conflict Without Borders Map

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The Secret List of Off-Shore-Companies, Persons and Adresses, Part 158, SYRIA,

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Officers & Master Clients (9)

Offshore Entities (1)

Young Future Entertainment Ltd.

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Exposed by Cryptome – Syria Devastation Photos

Syria Devastation Photos

March 2, 2012. New satellite imagery and eyewitness accounts reveal that the bombardment of the Baba Amr neighborhood in Homs has inflicted widespread destruction and a large number of deaths and severe injuries of civilians, Human Rights Watch said today. [Image]

Exposed by Cryptome – Syria Devastation Photos 2

Syria Devastation Photos 2

The Files TV – IED bombs new Syrian rebel strategy

SECRET//NOFORN: DAMASCUS384, RE-ENGAGING SYRIA: DEALING WITH SARG DIPLOMACY

VZCZCXRO9472
OO RUEHBC RUEHDE RUEHDH RUEHKUK RUEHROV
DE RUEHDM #0384/01 1541323
ZNY SSSSS ZZH
O 031323Z JUN 09
FM AMEMBASSY DAMASCUS
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6431
INFO RUEHEE/ARAB LEAGUE COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RHMFISS/HQ USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL PRIORITY
RUMICEA/USCENTCOM INTEL CEN MACDILL AFB FL PRIORITY
S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 DAMASCUS 000384 

NOFORN
SIPDIS 

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/07/2018
TAGS: PREL SY
SUBJECT: RE-ENGAGING SYRIA:  DEALING WITH SARG DIPLOMACY 

Classified By: CDA Maura Connelly for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) 

¶1.  (S/NF) Summary:  As the U.S. continues its re-engagement
with Syria, it may help us achieve our goals if we understand
how SARG officials pursue diplomatic goals. Syrian President
Bashar al-Asad is neither as shrewd nor as long-winded as his
father but he, too, prefers to engage diplomatically on a
level of abstraction that seems designed to frustrate any
direct challenge to Syria's behavior and, by extension, his
judgment.  Bashar's vanity represents another Achilles heel:
the degree to which USG visitors add to his consequence to
some degree affects the prospects for a successful meeting.
The SARG foreign policy apparatus suffers from apparent
dysfunctionality and weaknesses in terms of depth and
resources but the SARG punches above its weight because of
the talents of key individuals.  SARG officials generally
have clear, if tactical, guidance from Bashar and they are
sufficiently professional to translate those instructions
into recognizable diplomatic practice.  But in a diplomatic
world that is generally oiled by courtesy and euphemism, the
Syrians don't hesitate to be nasty in order to achieve their
objectives.  The behaviors they employ as diplomatic
"force-multipliers" are the hallmarks of a Syrian diplomatic
style that is at best abrasive and, at its worst, brutal.
End Summary. 

-------------------
Gaming Out the SARG
------------------- 

¶2.  (S/NF) As the U.S. moves forward to re-engage Syria, we
are well aware that Syrian officials have long been famous
for their abilities as tough negotiators.  The late President
Hafiz al-Asad could wear down his interlocutors through sheer
staying power in 10-hour meetings without breaks; the wealth
of detail and historical perspective he brought to those
discussions also tested the mettle of those who were
attempting to persuade him to a course of action he
questioned.  His son Bashar is neither as shrewd nor as
long-winded as his father but he, too, prefers to engage
diplomatically on a level of abstraction that seems designed
to frustrate any direct challenge to Syria's behavior and, by
extension, his judgment.  Bashar's presentations on world
affairs suggest that he would prefer to see himself as a sort
of philosopher-king, the Pericles of Damascus.  Playing to
Bashar's intellectual pretentions is one stratagem for
gaining his confidence and acquiescence; it may be
time-consuming but could well produce results.  Bashar's
vanity represents another Achilles heel:  the degree to which
USG visitors add to his consequence to some degree affects
the prospects for achieving our goals.  Every interaction we
have with the SARG is, in fact, a transaction and the better
equipped we are to understand the dynamics of our
negotiations the better able we will be to achieve our
objectives.  Post has assembled the compendium below in an
attempt to reflect our experience in dealing with the SARG in
the hope that Washington-based interlocutors will find it
useful. 

------------------------------------
A Compendium of Diplomatic Behaviors
------------------------------------ 

¶3. (S/NF) Capacity:  SARG scope of action is limited the
President's span of control.  He is generally able to monitor
 the activities of his foreign minister, political/media
advisor, intelligence chiefs, and brother Maher.  At various
times, his vice president and national security advisor are
also active and therefore under his direct supervision.
While communication flows between him and his subordinates,
it appears not to be formalized and information is highly
compartmented.  Subordinates' portfolios are not clearly
delineated; overlapping areas create tension and competition.
 There is no "interagency" policy development process that
lays out advantages and disadvantages of policy choices.
There are, as far as we know, no briefing or decision memos.
The bench is not deep; beyond the principals lie only a few
trusted staffers.  Bashar and his team also find it difficult
to juggle more than one major foreign policy issue at a time. 

¶4. (S/NF) Protocol:  SARG officials are sticklers for
diplomatic protocol, although they are not experts on the
international conventions from which it is derived.   The
SARG places a high value on protocolary forms that ensure
respectful treatment of state officials (despite bilateral
differences) because such forms guarantee that the President
and his representatives are shown proper courtesies by a
world that is often at odds with Syria.  (This focus on
protocol underlies the continuing Syrian unhappiness over the
absence of a U.S. ambassador.)  Protocol conventions also
reinforce the notion of equal relations between sovereign
states and the SARG insists that communications between it
and foreign embassies comply with traditional diplomatic
practice.  The MFA receives a flood of diplomatic notes from
Damascus-based foreign missions daily which are apportioned
out to various offices for action.  The diplomatic notes,
translated into Arabic by the senders, become the paper trail
for SARG decisions.  The MFA bureaucracy does not appear to
generate cover memoranda that provide background to requests
or recommendations for decisions.  Many such notes, possibly
all notes from the U.S. Embassy, are sent to the Minister
himself for review.  The MFA does not have internal email,
only fax and phone.  Instructions to Syrian missions abroad
are often sent by fax; sometimes the MFA fails to provide
instructions at all. 

¶5. (S/NF) The Suq:  In dealing with the U.S., the Syrians see
every encounter as a transaction.  The level and composition
of the Syrian side of any meeting is carefully calculated in
terms of protocol and the political message being sent; a
lunch invitation must be interpreted as more than just the
Arab compulsion to hospitality ) who hosts the lunch is as
important as who attends the meetings.  When it comes to
content, the Syrians seek to gain the highest value
deliverable for the lowest price or no price at all.  During
the re-engagement process, the SARG has attempted to extract
high profile USG gestures in exchange for relief of
operational constraints on the Embassy.  The SARG has been
uncharacteristically forward-leaning in allowing discussions
on a New Embassy Compound site to develop as far as they
have; actual closure on a land deal, however, is probably
contingent on U.S. delivery of a SARG desirable, e.g., the
announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be sent to Damascus.
 The SARG's focus on embassy operations is in part rooted in
their paranoia over USG intelligence collection and
penetration of Syrian society but the imposition of
constraints on mission activities has also conveniently
created an embassy list of desiderata that the SARG seeks to
use as cost-free concessions.  FM Muallim candidly
acknowledged this approach when he commented in February to
Charge that he had not yet decided what he needed in exchange
for permission to reopen the American School in Damascus. 

¶6.  (S/NF) Vanity and Self-preservation:  The President's
self-image plays a disproportionate role in policy
formulation and diplomatic activity.   Meetings, visits,
trips abroad that enhance his respectability and prestige are
pursued; encounters that may involve negotiations or
difficult debate are declined or delegated to subordinates.
The President responds with anger if he finds himself
challenged by visitors, but not until after the meeting.  He
seems to avoid direct confrontation.  When engaged in summit
diplomacy, he often seeks to include allies to bolster his
confidence (e.g., Quadripartite Summit in September 2008,
Riyadh Summit in April 2009).   His foreign policy
subordinates are all "employees" without constituencies or
influence independent of the President's favor.  Their
overriding concern when engaging foreigners is to avoid the
appearance of overstepping or violating their instructions.
They are particularly cautious in the presence of other
Syrians; requests to meet one-on-one often yield more
expansive and candid responses. 

¶7. (S/NF) Deceit:  SARG officials at every level lie.  They
persist in a lie even in the face of evidence to the
contrary.  They are not embarrassed to be caught in a lie.
While lower level officials often lie to avoid potential
punitive action from their own government, senior level
officials generally lie when they deem a topic too
"dangerous" to discuss (e.g., Al-Kibar, IAEA) or when they
have not yet determined whether or how to respond (FFN,
Hezbollah arms supplies, etc).  When a senior SARG official
is lying, the key challenge is not demonstrating  the lack of
veracity but discovering the true reasons for it. 

¶8. (S/NF) Passivity:  SARG foreign policy is formulated in
response to external developments (changes in regional
leadership, initiatives from the West, etc).  The SARG does
not launch initiatives and generally seeks cover from allies
when exploring new courses of action.  The SARG is much more
confident on the Arab level than on the international level.
SARG policy responses are generally tactical and operational,
exploratory rather than decisive, oblique instead of direct.
Strategy, to the extent it exists, emerges from a series of
tactical choices.  The lack of initiative appears rooted in
an underlying sense of diplomatic powerlessness.  Every
foreign policy embarrassment in Syria's history lies under
the surface of a generally false projection of assertiveness.
 That assertiveness is sometimes read as arrogance. 

¶9.  (S/NF) Antagonism:  Every Syrian diplomatic relationship
contains an element of friction.  There is some current
friction, for example, in the Syrians' relations with the
Turks and the French.  The Syrians are not troubled by
discord; they seek an upper hand in any relationship by
relying on foreign diplomats' instinctive desire to resolve
problems. By withholding a solution, the SARG seeks to
control the pace and temperature of the relationship.  SARG
officials artificially restrict their availability  and can
engage in harsh verbal attacks to intimidate and rattle
foreign diplomats.  SARG officials delight in disparaging
their interlocutors behind their backs for allowing
themselves to be cowed.  On the international level, the
President has indulged in personal criticisms of foreign
leaders; unlike his father, he deliberately makes enemies
when he doesn't necessarily have to.  FM Muallim can behave
similarly but he probably does so on the President's
instructions. 

¶10. (S/NF) Complacency:  SARG leadership genuinely believes
that SARG foreign policy has been, is being, and will be
vindicated by events.  They also genuinely believe their
foreign policy is based on morally defensible and
intellectually solid principles, although it is usually
reactive and opportunistic.  Existing policy choices are
immutable unless the President decides to change them, in
which case, his new policies, despite any appearances to the
contrary, are consistent with "traditional" principles.
Baathism infuses foreign policy principles (Pan-Arabism) but
pragmatism is more important.  More recently, Bashar's like
or dislike of other leaders plays a role in policy
formulation. 

¶11. (S/NF) The Non Sequitur:  When Syrian officials don't
like a point that has been made to them, they frequently
resort to an awkward changes in subject to deflect perceived
criticism.  Syrian officials seem to think they've scored a
verbal hit by employing a facile non sequitur, usually in the
form of a counter-accusation.  When the SARG's human rights
record is raised with Muallim, for example, he often raises
Israel's December-January Gaza operation or, more recently,
asks if the U.S. will accept the 1300 Al Qaeda sympathizers
in Syrian jails.   The non sequitur is intended to stop
discussion of the unwelcome topic while subtly intimidating
the interlocutor with the threat of raising a subject that is
putatively embarrassing to him or her.  When the non sequitur
is deployed, it is clear that the SARG official is on the
defensive. 

¶12.  (S/NF) Comment:  Given the apparent dysfunctionality of
the SARG foreign policy apparatus and its weaknesses in terms
of depth and resources, the SARG's ability to punch above its
weight internationally is noteworthy.  Much of its strength
appears to lie in the talents of key individuals and their
ability to collaborate with each other, despite tensions and
rivalries.  SARG officials generally have clear, if tactical,
guidance from Bashar and they are sufficiently professional
to translate those instructions into recognizable diplomatic
practice.  But the behaviors they employ as diplomatic
"force-multipliers" are the hallmarks of a Syrian diplomatic
style that is at best abrasive and, at its worst, brutal.  At
the end of the day, there are few who really like to deal
with the Syrians.  The SARG, well aware of its reputation,
however,  spends much of its energy ensuring that we have to. 

CONNELLY

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