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๐Ÿงญ OPERATION NUCLEAR NAUTILUS โ€“ Scott Ritterโ€™s Strategic Forecast: Missile Collapse, Nuclear Thresholds & Global Retaliation

“๐Ÿ”ฅ Middle East on Fire: Strategic Collapse and Nuclear Brinkmanship”
A cinematic portrait of geopolitical breakdown, featuring a grim analyst figure watching Jerusalemโ€™s Dome of the Rock engulfed in missile strikes and tank warfare. This visual captures the essence of Scott Ritterโ€™s warningsโ€”Israelโ€™s missile shield has failed, nuclear escalation is near, and the world is on the edge of irreversible conflict.
#IsraelIranWar #NuclearBrink #ScottRitterIntel #DomeOfRockStrikes #AboveTopSecret #PulchReport #MiddleEastCrisis2025 #MissileSaturation #DEFCONWatch

PLUS EXCLUSIVE STRATEGIC SCENARIOS designed ONLY for Patreon subscribers, expanding on the Scott Ritter intel and the evolving Israelโ€“Iran conflict.

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Scott Ritterโ€™s Strategic Warnings on the Israelโ€“Iran War: Missile Collapse, Nuclear Taboo, and American Complicity

๐Ÿ“… Last Updated: July 1, 2025
๐Ÿ“ก Source: Judge Napolitanoโ€™s Judging Freedom, Al Jazeera, DEFCON Monitors
๐Ÿ” Classification: COSMIC BLACK // STRATEGIC WAR LEVEL // NATO-EYES ONLY


๐Ÿง  EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Former UN Weapons Inspector Scott Ritter, appearing in two explosive episodes of Judge Napolitanoโ€™s Judging Freedom (June 16 and June 30), has issued a sequence of above-top-secretโ€“style strategic assessments about the unfolding Israelโ€“Iran war:

โš ๏ธ โ€œThe next missile strike may not be conventional.โ€
โš ๏ธ โ€œIf the U.S. drops a nuclear bomb on Iran, Russia will nuke Europe. Guaranteed.โ€

Ritter now positions the Israelโ€“Iran confrontation as a global nuclear threshold crisis, where missile saturation, IAEA hypocrisy, and U.S. policy manipulation could trigger planetary consequences.


๐Ÿงฉ INTEGRATED INTEL BREAKDOWN

๐Ÿ”ฅ KEY POINTS FROM JUNE 16 INTERVIEW

  • Israelโ€™s April-June 2025 attack on Iran was unprovoked: โ€œIran was on the verge of a new nuclear agreement. Then Israel struck.โ€
  • The attack deliberately eliminated Iranโ€™s negotiating team, including Admiral Ali Shamkhani, in what Ritter likened to a โ€œPearl Harbor-style decapitation strike.โ€

โ€œThey lulled Iran into complacency… and murdered the diplomats.โ€

  • B-61 tactical nukes are ready for use. Ritter warns these “bunker busters” are pre-deployed on U.S. B-2 aircraft in Qatar and Diego Garcia.

โš ๏ธ STRATEGIC FORECAST (PHASE MODEL)

PhaseDetails
Phase 1 โ€“ Missile SaturationIran overwhelms Israeli defenses using decoys + precision rockets
Phase 2 โ€“ Political ShatterpointIsraelโ€™s deterrence crumbles; demands for global nuclear accountability rise
Phase 3 โ€“ Tactical Nuke RiskU.S. or Israel deploys B-61 bomb if Iranian sites hold out
Phase 4 โ€“ Russian EscalationRussia retaliates against Europe if nuclear line is crossed

๐Ÿงฌ JUNE 30 UPDATE โ€“ STRATEGIC FAILURE CONFIRMED

On Judge Napolitano again, Ritter doubled down:

โ€œWhat Israel proved is that it cannot defend itself against Iranian missiles.โ€
โ€œYou never inspect Israelโ€™s nukes. Theyโ€™re allowed to have one. Iran canโ€™t.โ€

Key strategic failures Ritter outlined:

  • Interceptor depletion: Iron Dome, Davidโ€™s Sling, Arrow-3 are at โ€œunsustainableโ€ launch ratios (estimated 1:9 Iranian hit rate).
  • U.S. & Israel are losing the information warโ€”IAEAโ€™s double standards have backfired, and Iran is now gaining international sympathy.

๐Ÿ“‰ DEFENSE COLLAPSE SIGNALS

  • ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ Arrow-3 interceptor supply will be exhausted in 12โ€“15 days
  • ๐Ÿ›ฐ๏ธ Iranian missiles bypass GPS jamming using preloaded terrain-guided trajectories
  • ๐Ÿ’ฃ B-2s and B-52s are already in theater with nuclear-ready loadouts
  • ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ Russian EWS satellites now orbit over Beersheba, Dimona, and Haifa

๐Ÿšจ GEOSTRATEGIC CONSEQUENCES

  • ๐ŸŒ Russian Statement: โ€œIf Iran is nuked, we respond in Europe.โ€ โ€“ Russian MoD (via TASS, June 29)
  • ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ Chinaโ€™s position: โ€œNuclear use will trigger mutual defense protocolsโ€ (via Global Times)

๐Ÿ“ก EARLY WARNING SIGNS TO WATCH

  • ๐Ÿ”„ Real-time recall of U.S. State Department assets from Tel Aviv
  • ๐Ÿšจ Market anomalies linked to Northcom alerts
  • โœˆ๏ธ NATO aircraft repositioned to avoid Syrianโ€“Iraqi corridor
  • ๐Ÿ›ฐ๏ธ Satellite shutdowns followed by cyber blackouts on C4ISR command systems

๐Ÿ” CONCLUSION

Scott Ritterโ€™s intel has moved from warning to confirmation. The Israelโ€“Iran conflict has collapsed the Middle Eastโ€™s military balance, exposed NATOโ€™s nuclear ambiguity, and triggered Russian strategic repositioning.

โ€œThis is no longer a shadow war. This is the last stage before the unthinkable.โ€


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โœŒThe Stasi, Israel and the Jews: A complex hostile Relationship

Arab Terrorists in front of the Berlin Brandenburg Gate in the DDR including Jassir Arafat

The Stasi’s complex relationship with Israel and the Jewish community, particularly during the Cold War, reflects the dynamics of East German foreign policy under the German Democratic Republic (GDR). Within this framework, the Ministry for State Security (Ministerium fรผr Staatssicherheit, or Stasi) pursued a convoluted policy towards Israel and Jewish communities that was driven by East Germanyโ€™s alignment with Soviet policies, as well as the broader Arab-Israeli conflict. The journalist and researcher Bernd Pulch has highlighted various aspects of the Stasiโ€™s operations in his work, drawing attention to how the intelligence agency engaged in espionage, propaganda, and anti-Semitic campaigns related to both Israel and Jewish organizations.

East German Foreign Policy and the Stasiโ€™s Role

The GDR, under the leadership of the Socialist Unity Party, pursued a foreign policy that often aligned with Soviet objectives. This policy included staunch support for anti-Israel positions, largely motivated by the Soviet Unionโ€™s desire to support Arab allies in the Middle East. The GDR did not recognize Israel and instead maintained close relations with Arab nations, viewing them as potential allies in the socialist bloc.

The Stasi, as the GDR’s secret police and intelligence agency, was instrumental in enforcing and executing East Germanyโ€™s foreign policy initiatives. The agency conducted operations to undermine Israelโ€™s standing in the international arena and sought to support Palestinian liberation groups. To this end, the Stasi provided logistical, financial, and intelligence support to various Palestinian factions and maintained relationships with organizations like the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO).

Espionage and Surveillance Against Jewish Communities

One of the most controversial aspects of the Stasi’s activities was its focus on Jewish communities and organizations within East Germany and abroad. The agency regarded certain Jewish organizations with suspicion, often conflating Jewish advocacy groups with Zionist and pro-Israel elements, which it perceived as potential threats to East German state security and ideological integrity.

In his work, Bernd Pulch has documented various cases in which the Stasi targeted Jewish individuals and organizations. For instance, the Stasi monitored Jewish activists and organizations in East Germany, labeling them as potential “Zionist agents.” This surveillance extended to international Jewish organizations, as the Stasi often sought intelligence on their activities, particularly regarding any connection to Israel or Western nations. The agency utilized a network of informants to monitor Jewish communities, creating detailed profiles on prominent Jewish individuals, academics, and cultural figures.

Anti-Semitic Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

The GDR government, including the Stasi, also engaged in disinformation campaigns that echoed Soviet anti-Zionist rhetoric. These campaigns were part of a broader attempt to delegitimize Israel and Jewish support for the Israeli state. The Stasi cooperated with other Eastern bloc intelligence agencies to distribute anti-Israel and anti-Semitic propaganda, which sometimes included conspiracy theories linking Jewish organizations to Western intelligence services, particularly the CIA.

One example of these campaigns is the dissemination of false narratives aimed at portraying Israel and Zionist organizations as oppressors or conspirators. The Stasi’s disinformation targeted not only Jewish communities but also attempted to influence public opinion in Arab nations and the Third World, reinforcing the GDR’s alignment with anti-colonial and anti-imperialist movements.

Bernd Pulchโ€™s research reveals that the Stasi’s involvement in these campaigns often involved fabricating stories about Jewish leaders and promoting anti-Semitic tropes. These narratives were intended to drive a wedge between Jewish communities and other groups in society, as well as to bolster the GDRโ€™s standing with its Arab allies.

Relations with Palestinian Militants and Anti-Israel Operations

The GDRโ€™s foreign policy also included explicit support for Palestinian militant organizations, including the PLO. Stasi archives reveal that the agency collaborated with Palestinian groups in various ways, providing training, resources, and intelligence support. This support was framed as part of a larger anti-imperialist struggle, casting Israel as a colonial power supported by Western imperialism.

Through the Stasi, the GDR provided technical training and even arms to certain Palestinian factions, while maintaining plausible deniability. Bernd Pulch has explored how Stasi operatives assisted in planning and coordinating activities that were ultimately aimed at undermining Israel and strengthening Palestinian militancy.

Bernd Pulchโ€™s Contributions to Understanding Stasi Operations

Bernd Pulchโ€™s research and publications on the Stasi have contributed valuable insights into the agencyโ€™s covert activities and their implications for Israel, Jewish communities, and international politics. By examining declassified Stasi files, Pulch has shed light on the extent of the agencyโ€™s involvement in anti-Israel and anti-Semitic campaigns. His work has been crucial in documenting how the GDR, through the Stasi, conducted operations that went beyond typical intelligence work to include ideologically driven propaganda and disinformation targeting Jews and supporters of Israel.

Pulchโ€™s findings illustrate that the Stasiโ€™s activities extended well into psychological warfare, as the agency sought to manipulate perceptions of Israel and Zionism on a global scale. This research has also contributed to a broader understanding of how Cold War politics intersected with issues of anti-Semitism and anti-Zionism in the Eastern bloc, often blurring the lines between legitimate political opposition and overt prejudice.

Conclusion

The Stasiโ€™s complex relationship with Israel and Jewish communities reflects the Cold War’s intersection of ideology, geopolitics, and prejudice. Driven by East Germanyโ€™s alignment with Soviet policy and anti-imperialist rhetoric, the Stasi engaged in a range of activities against Jewish organizations and Israel. These activities included espionage, surveillance, disinformation, and outright propaganda, all of which reveal a darker side of Cold War intelligence operations.

Bernd Pulchโ€™s work on this topic has been instrumental in bringing to light the Stasi’s covert operations and their implications for our understanding of Cold War history, anti-Semitism, and the East German stateโ€™s foreign policy objectives. Through his research, Pulch has provided a clearer picture of the Stasi’s motivations, tactics, and the complex legacy of its operations regarding Israel and Jewish communities.

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The Secret List of Off-Shore-Companies, Persons and Adresses, Part 76, Israel,

Click on the entries and get additional infos.

Officers & Master Clientsย (152)

Offshore Entitiesย (21)

Listed Addressesย (143)

The CIA reports – Iran Expanded its Nuclear Program in 2011

CIA: Iran Expanded its Nuclear Program in 2011

In 2011, Iran expanded its nuclear program, and continued to enrich uranium and develop its nuclear facilities โ€“ thus stated a report from the CIA that was presented to the US Congress.

According to the report, Iran has successfully produced approximately 4,900 kg of low-level enriched uranium, and continued its development of the nuclear facilities constructed throughout the country, as well as is heavy water research. The report determined that Iran’s actions were carried out in contrast to the UN decisions that Iran must halt their nuclear activities.

The CIA further determined that Iran has continued the development of the underground facilities in Natanz, and even developed more advanced centrifuges, which were already tested at an unknown destination in the country. Iranโ€™s stockpiles possess approximately 80 kg of enriched uranium at a level approaching 20% (a level suitable for a nuclear bomb).

The report also noted that while the number of centrifuges in Iranโ€™s possession has dropped from 8,900 to 8,000, the number of active centrifuges has skyrocketed from 3,800 in August 2010 to a present figure of 6,200.

In addition, according to the report, one of the most important facilities in Iranโ€™s nuclear program is the Fordo facility near the city of Qom, where Iran is enriching uranium at a level of โ€œnearly 20%.โ€

The CIA is also stating that while the Bushehr nuclear reactor started producing nuclear fuel last year, it is still not acting at full capacity. However, it should be noted that the report does not deal with the topic of Iranโ€™s military nuclear program. While it provides figures of the countryโ€™s uranium stockpiles, it does not associate this stockpile, or any other, with the Islamic Republicโ€™s plans for developing military nuclear capabilities.

The agency also determined that Tehran is continuing the development and expansion of its missile program. They are continuing the development of short and medium-ranged missiles, and focusing on the ability to launch missiles into space as well โ€“ so that they can develop missiles with exceptionally long ranges.

AMIR RAPAPORT – Israel and the US Have an Understanding on the Iranian Issue

The repeated declarations are largely a form of psychological warfare; Gal Hirsch returns to the IDFโ€™s top echelons; and the largest tender in IDF history was awarded for the construction of a training base city in the Negev.

All the anonymous statements coming from Israeli and US โ€œsenior officialsโ€ regarding the question of whether or not Israel will attack Iran (against the USโ€™s advice) should be treated with a measure of suspicion.

It is likely that there is a significant amount of psychological warfare involved in these reports. The goal is clear enough: to increase pressure on Iran, which already exists as a result of more economic sanctions, mysterious explosions, and the assassinations of senior nuclear scientists.

The โ€œsenior officialโ€ understandings likely emerged from two starting points, which are seemingly contradictory. The first is that Israel cannot commit to the US in any way, especially that the US be notified more than several hours in advance of an air strike. The second is that there is truth to the words recently spoken by US President Barack Obama, claiming that the defense relationship between Israel and the US has never been closer. The issue of the Iranian nuclear program is one of the most central issues discussed in the joint strategic dialogue between Jerusalem and Washington, a dialogue that is the most closely coordinated one ever.

The discussions over this issue began back in the early 1990s, and are now expressed in ongoing intelligence updates regarding the various aspects of the Iranian nuclear program. These updates are conducted by senior officials in the branches of the Israeli defense establishment โ€“ the Directorate of Military Intelligence and the Mossad, and the Joint Political-Military Group (JPMG). This group, which gathers once every quarter, is comprised of diplomats, military and intelligence personnel, and persons who deal with foreign policy. Essentially, it is a think-tank that handles the various aspects of the Iranian project, with the goal of deepening the level of intelligence cooperation in order to determine a basis for joint policy.

Above all else, the discussions concerning the Iranian issue are being carried out continuously in the political stratum. The bottom line is apparent: even if Israel does not commit to announcing an attack in advance, it wonโ€™t act as if the US isnโ€™t in the neighborhood (who is increasing their presence in the Persian Gulf region).

By the way, the huge exercise that was planned for this spring, with the participation of US and Israeli forces, was meant to be another expression of the close cooperation between the countries. The exercise was delayed due to a desire to slightly ease the tension against Iran. It is now planned for October. However, itโ€™s not unreasonable to consider that a war might erupt before then.

Eyes to the north

While global attention is focused on the issue of whether or not Israel will attack Iran, the IDFโ€™s eyes are also observing the north โ€“ and are closely monitoring the bloodbath in Syria.

Gantzโ€™s words from a few weeks ago, that the IDF is preparing to receive Alawite (the minority in Syria, among which is President Bashar Assad) refugees, reflects one of several possible scenarios. The questions remains, what will happen the day the Assad regime collapses?

A much more worrisome possibility is that the collapse of the Syrian regime will be accompanied by missile fire at Israel, in the sense of โ€œIโ€™m going down and taking you with me.โ€ Another possibility, equally grave, is the transfer of large amounts of qualitative weapons from the Syrian army warehouses to Hezbollah in Lebanon. If Syria were to transfer very advanced antiaircraft systems to Lebanon, itโ€™s quite possible that Israel would choose to operate in the form of a preemptive strike in this scenario as well โ€“ before the S125 systems would enter operational use.

Replacements during a sensitive period

Given the tension surrounding Iran and the north, this is not an ideal time to replace prominent IDF positions, as is expected to take place soon in the defense establishment. (The next IAF commander, Major General Amir Eshel, is expected to enter office in April.)

Another problematic element is the fact that the military secretaries of both the prime minister and the minister of defense are expected to be new (both are highly sensitive positions, and their entry is always accompanied by a measure of dissonance โ€“ there is no position in the IDF that prepares senior officers on how to conduct themselves in the tumultuous junction between the political and military sectors).

Brigadier General Itzik Turgeman, the new military secretary to the minister of defense, already took office and is now learning how to handle his position. Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu will need to select a new military secretary soon, as the current one, Major General Yochanan Locker, announced he would conclude his position and retire should he not be nominated the next Air Force Commander – which, as is known, he wasn’t.

Incidentally, the new Depth Command is increasing its activity in light of the preparations for a possible war on all fronts. The person responsible for the command, Major General Shai Avital, who returned from retirement, has already assembled a working team. Soon, they are expected to receive a surprising reinforcement: Brigadier General (Res.) Gal Hirsch, one of the more prominent figures from the Second Lebanon War.

Hirsch served as the commander of the Galilee Formation (the 91st Division) that was responsible for the Lebanese border. Hirsch became one of the symbols of the war due to his criticism, while on the other hand, the former Chief of Staff, Lieutenant General Dan Halutz, said (rightfully) that he was wronged. Hirsch, who was not among the bad commanders of the war (rather the opposite), resigned from the IDF after the war, and made money as a senior partner at the Israeli company Defensive Shield. The position which is currently intended for him may return him to the top military echelon, for the first time since the war.

Revealed – Upheaval in the Mossad

Far from the spotlights, the new director of the Mossad replaced his entire senior staff, the exasperating body transfer affair is only another link in the chain of blunders in the handling of Gilad Shalit’s release, the battle over defense establishment funds being waged in the Knesset reaches new depths of entanglement.

The Mossad is an organization that acts in the shadows, as it should. Under a heavy cloak of secrecy it has undergone an upheaval in recent months. This is not something that everyone driving by the Mossad’s hilltop headquarters (ask any Israeli the “secret” location) is aware of, but a sea change, at least at the personnel level, has definitely taken place.

The shake up began with the appointment of Tamir Pardo as Mossad director on January 6. While the reshuffling at the senior level was underway, the outgoing head of the organization, Meir Dagan, captured the lion’s share of public attention in a series of admonishments and phillippics against an attack on Iran. In the meantime, Pardo quietly replaced the entire Mossad senior staff.

Background input: Pardo is one the few directors who grew up within the organization and was not parachuted onto it from the outside. He joined the ranks after a short stint as a signal corps officer. (His memoirs of the Operation Entebbe were recently published in the intelligence corps’ heritage magazine. Pardo was the chief radio operator for the commander of the operation, Yoni Netanyahu โ€“ the only Israeli military fatality in the hostage rescue.) For decades Pardo served heart and soul in Mossad operations, but when he reached the top level a few years ago โ€“ his advancement hit the wall. The reason: the continuous extension of Meir Dagan’s tenure.

When Pardo realized that the pinnacle of the pyramid was occupied, he temporarily left the organization for a position in the IDF (among other things he was involved in the development of special capabilities and planning of special ops in the Second Lebanon War). He returned to the Mossad as the deputy director, but again departed in 2009 after Dagan’s term was extended for another year. It seems that Dagan’s protracted hold on the top office did not suit Pardo’s nature.

As a private citizen, Pardo was helping the Israeli entrepreneur Noam Lanir set up a company specializing in the export of medical services to wealthy Russians, when the decision was made to appoint him “chief” of the Mossad. Since entering office six months ago, Pardo has maintained his predecessor’s tradition of active operations while introducing a major organizational reconfiguration. Pardo’s managerial methods are definitely not those of Dagan. Without anyone outside of the Mossad taking note, Pardo replaced all of the key department heads.

This is what happened in the special ops departments “Keshet” and “Caesarea”. New chiefs were also brought into the intelligence department; the political action and liaison department, responsible for the organization’s international contacts; and even the human resources section. The new head of the political action and liaison department served until recently as head of the intelligence department. His deputy, Z., the new head of the research department, was formerly the director of counter-terror in the intelligence corps. Z.’s deputy in the Mossad, A., was also Z.’s deputy in the intelligence corps research section. Furthermore, the person who until very recently headed the Mossad’s human resources section, Brigadier General (res.) Yosi Peretz, the former the chief officer of the IDF’s adjutant corps, was appointed director of human resources at Bank Discount a few days ago. The outgoing head of the political action and liaison department department, David Primo, was also in the news recently when Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu asked him to head the negotiations for the release of Gilad Shalit.

Shalit: an ongoing fiasco

Just as this column has mentioned on more one occasion in the past weeks, serious contacts are being held with Hamas on a possible deal for the release of Gilad Shalit.

Actually it is against this setting that Israel’s (mis)handling of the bodies’ transfer to the Palestinians this week is so infuriating. According to the press, the imbecility began with a meeting between senior members of the Palestinian Authority (PA) and the heads of Israel’s Civil Administration in Judea and Samaria. The Palestinians came away convinced that Israel had agreed to hand over 84 bodies. Political figures in Israel officially approved the report, and the IDF Spokesperson even published a statement that the transfer would proceed according to the “prime minister’s decision.”

Then, a sudden turnabout occurred. After midnight, on the evening between Monday and Tuesday, Ehud Barak’s office issued a statement that the defense minister would reexamine the list of the Palestinian bodies in light of the protest voiced by the victims of terrorist events and the concern that a valuable bargaining chip might be lost in the negotiations for Gilad Shalit’s return. The Israeli journalist Ben Caspi, writing in the daily Ma’ariv, shed light on the murky matter.

According to Caspi, the IDF Spokesperson’s announcement had been prearranged with the defense minister’s office to purposely use the unprecedented expression “the prime minister’s decision” rather than the “political echelon’s” (which naturally includes Defense Minister Ehud Barak). If indeed Barak set a trap for Netanyahu in order to cast himself as the “responsible figure” in the government, as Caspi claims, then he could have also exploited the relative lack of experience of new IDF Spokesperson, Brigadier General Yoav (Poli) Mordechai) (head of the Civil Administration in Judea and Samaria until last year). In addition, the director of the media department in the IDF Spokesperson’s Unit, Colonel Ofer Kol, is stepping down from his position this week (Ariela Ben Avraham, promoted to colonel last Thursday, is his replacement).

The inept handling of the bodies’ transfer is nothing compared to the recurrent blunders in the Gilad Shalit affair, most of which have been discussed in detail in this column. Three weeks ago the Israeli soldier completed five years in captivity.

Northern Command: mistakes fated to be repeated

As the fifth anniversary of the Second Lebanon War approaches, it is time to recall that the war broke out when many of the senior officers in the Northern Command were still new at their jobs.

For example, the general of Northern Command, Udi Adam, and the head of the Galilee Division, Gal Hirsh, were less than a year in their positions. Northern Command’s chief intelligence officer, Yosi Beidetz (now completing his succeeding post as head of the intelligence corps’ research department) had been in Northern Command barely a month when the war erupted, and the list goes on.

Now we can note that the IDF is fully prepared for the heavy rioting expected in September if and when the Palestinians realize their plans to declare unilateral statehood. Last May we received a “taste” of what is likely to occur. This, of course, refers to “Nakba Day” [Israel’s Independence Day which, for the Palestinians, signifies “Catastrophe Day” dating back to 1948] when hoards of Syrians stormed the border on the Golan Heights. As September approaches the IDF is vigorously stockpiling “non-lethal” weapons, holding field exercises, preparing for a large-scale mobilization of the reserves, and scheduling training programs and courses so that the conscript units will be free for operational duty in the territories and on the borders. The assessment is that like “Nakba Day,” in September, too, Northern Command will have to deal with an onslaught of stubborn, resolute, violent protesters on the northern borders.

But has the IDF learned all the lessons of 2006? Apparently not. Look at the facts: during August, a few weeks before the expected explosion, one after the other, the general of Northern Command, commander of the Galilee Formation (who has responsibility for the Lebanese border), the commanders of the 36th and Challenger Divisions, and, but what else, Northern Command’s chief intelligence officer will all be replaced. A blunder fated to repeat itself? It would seem so.

Mofaz fights

A final word. Another “hot” issue that occupied the defense establishment this week was a matter of money – lots of money.

The veteran journalist Nahum Barnea first broke the story in the daily Yediot Achronot last Friday. Barnea revealed that the director general of the defense ministry, Major General (res.) Udi Shani, has been banging on tables to free money designated for the defense ministry, money that was legally approved by the Knesset for the defense budget.

It turns out that close to three billion shekels have been held up for sundry reasons since the beginning of the year. The result: the defense ministry has accumulated a debt of hundreds of millions of shekels that it owes to each of the major defense industries that supply the IDF with weapons.

A week has passed since the exposรฉ and the issue only becomes more empretzeled. A brief explanation is in order. The defense budget is passed biannually. It is unlike the budgets of the other ministries that the Knesset’s finance committee votes on, in that the defense budget is approved as a single flow without the possibility of debate on each specific section. The reason for this is to prevent any leaks of security secrets in the finance committee plenum.

In order to oversee the defense budget, a special committee of ten Knesset members is appointed: half of them from the finance committee and half from the foreign affairs and defense committee, and all of them have the requisite security clearance level. The chairman of the joint committee is a figure is whose security credentials are of the highest order, unimpeachable to the nth degree โ€“ the former chief of staff and defense minister, Knesset Member Shaul Mofaz.

According to procedure, those who can delay the money flow to the defense establishment are the finance ministry (if it doesnโ€™t bring the regular defense budget to the finance committee for approval), the chairman of the finance committee (if he doesnโ€™t order payment to the joint committee for approval), and, of course, Shaul Mofaz’s joint committee.

Back to the facts: the security budget has suffered lately from the iron fist of all three players. The finance ministry is withholding the money, the finance committee is delaying (for coalition reasons) approval of the budget that the finance ministry has already approved (a disheartening development for the defense industries as of last Tuesday: the finance committee is freezing 620 million shekels due to various coalition demands), and even Knesset Member Shaul Mofaz has locked horns with the defense establishment in recent weeks, fighting it “tooth and nail.”

For the first time it appears that the former chief of staff is demanding his right to scrutinize the money designated for four defense projects, as well as the sources of their funding. Moreover, Mofaz wants to check the money intended for Elbit’s DAP (Digital Army Program), and a joint program between Elbit and the defense and finance ministries for the establishment, in the south of the country, of a plant, partially funded by the state, for the production of state-of-the art communications equipment for the IDF.

Mofaz is determined to oversee the defense establishment and not merely serve as a rubber stamp that gives the green light to all of its budgets. In the meantime, discussions in the Knesset focus only on legal niceties: does Mofaz’s committee have the authority to examine the sources of financing of certain defense budgets or only what the money is intended for. By the end of this week the funds appear to be frozen solid. Thus the leaders of the defense industries may soon find themselves knocking on the doors of the bank directors asking for loans to tide them over until the defense funding thaws and the cash flows again.

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Photos:
Director of the Mossad, Tamir Pardo (Photo: Flash 90)
Gilad Shalit (Photo: AP)
Member of Parliament, Shaul Mofaz (Photo: IDF Spokesperson)