INVESTMENT DAILY — 4. SEPTEMBER 2026
FOUNDED IN 2000 ANNO DOMINI ✌
Institutional Intelligence & Global Market Analysis
Date: September 4, 2026
Author: Joe Rogers & Aristotle AI — Senior Macro Strategist
Status: STRATEGIC INTELLIGENCE / HIGHLY CONFIDENTIAL
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: WALLER SHIFTS RATE OUTLOOK, GOLD SURGES TO $4,508, BITCOIN BREACHES $80,000
September 4, 2026 — Global markets rallied strongly on Thursday as Fed Governor Christopher Waller signaled support for a rate pause at the September FOMC meeting, triggering a broad risk-on rally across asset classes. Wall Street surged more than 1%, with the Dow gaining over 500 points, as Treasury yields fell sharply from multi-year highs . European markets followed suit, with the STOXX 600 rising 0.49% and the DAX gaining 0.63% .
Gold surged 2.1% to $4,508/oz as fading rate-hike bets and Middle East tensions boosted safe-haven demand . Oil prices held gains, with Brent at $96.40 (+0.8%) and WTI at $92.09 (+1.2%), supported by ongoing US-Iran tensions . Bitcoin broke above $80,000 for the first time in over a week, reaching $80,000+, as reduced Fed rate-hike odds and improving risk appetite fueled the rally .
Asian markets closed the week on a positive note Friday, with the Nikkei rising 1.3% to 65,020.94 and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng jumping 1.7% . Indian markets saw mixed stock-specific movements as the NSE and BSE remained open for trading despite Janmashtami being a bank holiday .
Key Market Signals:
| Asset | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ~7,730 | +1%+ |
| Dow Jones | ~53,500 | +1%+ |
| Nasdaq | ~26,500 | +1%+ |
| DAX | 26,003.32 | +0.63% |
| CAC 40 | 8,286.40 | +0.07% |
| FTSE 100 | 10,831.52 | +0.70% |
| STOXX 600 | 649.10 | +0.49% |
| Nikkei 225 | 65,020.94 | +1.3% |
| Hang Seng | 25,650.87 | +1.7% |
| KOSPI | 6,687.21 | +1.6% |
| Shanghai Composite | 3,930.12 | -0.3% |
| Brent Crude | $96.40/bbl | +0.8% |
| WTI Crude | $92.09/bbl | +1.2% |
| Spot Gold | $4,508/oz | +2.1% |
| Bitcoin | $80,000+ | +2%+ |
| US 10Y Yield | ~4.77% | – |
| US 30Y Mortgage | 6.759% | -0.051% |
01 US EQUITIES — WALLER’S DOVISH SHIFT SPARKS RALLY
US stocks surged more than 1% on Thursday as Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller signaled he would support a rate pause at the September FOMC meeting if inflation pressures continue to ease . The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield fell to around 4.77%, retreating from its highest level since November 2023, while the 2-year yield sensitive to near-term monetary policy declined to 4.322% .
Key Drivers:
- Waller’s Dovish Comments: The Fed Governor’s remarks provided the main catalyst, easing market concerns about aggressive rate hikes .
- Treasury Buyback Support: The Treasury’s expanded buyback program, doubled to at least $4bn per operation, continues to support bond markets .
- Tech Sector Strength: Software stocks rallied, extending gains from earlier in the week .
Hedge Fund & Private Equity:
Private equity stocks have been rallying in tandem with software stocks, though investor nervousness persists. Blackstone’s BCRED private credit fund reported third-quarter redemption levels of 10%, matching the June quarter, indicating that while stocks have rallied, investors in these funds remain cautious .
Market Breadth:
New York stocks broadly participated in the rally, with all major indices posting gains exceeding 1% .
02 EUROPEAN MARKETS — FOLLOW WALL STREET HIGHER
European markets closed higher on Thursday, ending a three-day losing streak as concerns over global bond market selling eased and investors awaited US economic data for clues on Fed rate policy .
Key Index Closes:
| Index | Close | Change |
|---|---|---|
| STOXX 600 | 649.10 | +0.49% |
| DAX (Germany) | 26,003.32 | +0.63% |
| FTSE 100 (UK) | 10,831.52 | +0.70% |
| CAC 40 (France) | 8,286.40 | +0.07% |
European markets were supported by the broader easing of bond market pressure, which had been weighing on equities earlier in the week. Investors focused on upcoming US jobs data to assess the Fed’s rate path .
03 ASIAN MARKETS — MIXED WEEKLY CLOSE
Asian markets closed the week on a positive note Friday, with most regional benchmarks gaining ground following Wall Street’s tech-led rally .
Key Asian Index Closes:
| Index | Close | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Nikkei 225 (Japan) | 65,020.94 | +1.3% |
| Hang Seng (Hong Kong) | 25,650.87 | +1.7% |
| KOSPI (South Korea) | 6,687.21 | +1.6% |
| Shanghai Composite (China) | 3,930.12 | -0.3% |
| CSI 300 (China) | — | -0.1% |
| S&P/ASX 200 (Australia) | 9,005.90 | -0.2% |
Key Dynamics:
- Japan: The Nikkei rose 1.3% to 65,020.94, supported by the broader positive regional sentiment .
- Hong Kong: The Hang Seng jumped 1.7% to 25,650.87, leading regional gains .
- South Korea: The KOSPI gained 1.6% to 6,687.21 .
- China: The Shanghai Composite lost 0.3% to 3,930.12, while the CSI300 Index closed 0.1% lower. For the week, the CSI300 was down 1.3%, while the Hang Seng was up 0.3% .
- India: Markets remained open for trading on Janmashtami (September 4) as it was not a NSE/BSE trading holiday, though banks were closed .
Indian Stock Spotlight (Sep 4, 2026):
| Top Gainers | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|
| SBI Life Insurance | ₹1,775.00 | +3.50% |
| Tata Steel | — | +2.49% |
| HDFC Life Insurance | — | — |
| Reliance Industries | ₹1,322.00 | +1.50% |
| Top Losers | Change |
|---|---|
| HCL Technologies | -1.94% |
| Bharti Airtel | -1.55% |
| Maruti Suzuki India | -1.27% |
[Source: HDFC Sky]
04 OIL MARKETS — HOLD GAINS ON HORMUZ CONCERNS
Oil prices held firm on Friday, capping a strong weekly performance. Brent crude rose 0.8% to $96.40/barrel, while WTI gained 1.2% to $92.09/barrel . For the week, Brent was up roughly 7%, while WTI had gained close to 10%, marking oil’s strongest weekly performance since July .
Key Drivers:
- US-Iran Tensions: Ongoing military confrontations in the Strait of Hormuz continue to support prices .
- Brent Technical Resistance: The key resistance is the recent $97.40-$98.30 region, with a sustained break above potentially opening the way toward $100.00 .
- Risk of Escalation: Further escalation in the US-Iran conflict could push Brent decisively above $100 .
Analyst View:
“Oil remains elevated with Brent trading around $97 a barrel. The key variable remains the US-Iran conflict and the Strait of Hormuz. Further escalation could push Brent decisively above $100, while progress toward de-escalation could remove some of the geopolitical risk premium” .
05 GOLD — SURGES 2.1% TO $4,508/oz
Gold prices surged 2.1% to $4,508/oz on Thursday as fading Fed rate-hike bets and ongoing Middle East tensions boosted demand for the precious metal .
Key Drivers:
- Dovish Fed Pivot: Reduced expectations for a September rate hike weakened the dollar and lowered Treasury yields, supporting gold .
- Geopolitical Risk: The ongoing US-Iran conflict continues to drive safe-haven demand .
- Technical Levels: Gold needs to regain $4,500 to restore strong upside momentum. The first important support area is $4,420-$4,430, followed by $4,320 .
Outlook:
“Gold remains in a strong long-term bullish structure. A break above $4,500 would strengthen the recovery and could eventually put the record high back in focus” .
06 CRYPTO MARKETS — BITCOIN BREACHES $80,000
Bitcoin broke above $80,000 for the first time in over a week as reduced Fed rate-hike odds and improving risk appetite fueled the rally . The cryptocurrency initially struggled below $80,000 after the hawkish Fed environment pushed yields and the dollar higher, but Waller’s dovish comments triggered a sharp recovery, with Bitcoin briefly approaching $82,000 .
Key Dynamics:
- Fading Rate-Hike Bets: Waller’s dovish shift provided the main catalyst for the breakout .
- Short Covering: The rally was amplified by short covering, raising questions about the sustainability of the move without continued ETF inflows and fresh spot demand .
- Ethereum Recovery: Ethereum also recovered toward $2,500 .
Outlook:
“The sustainability of the move will depend on continued ETF inflows and fresh spot demand” .
07 US HOUSING MARKET — MORTGAGE RATES EASE SLIGHTLY, LISTINGS AT 4-YEAR HIGH
Mortgage Rates (September 4, 2026)
Mortgage rates saw small downward fluctuations on Friday after a week of increases .
| Mortgage Type | Rate | Previous | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Conventional | 6.759% | 6.810% | -0.051% |
| 15-Year Conventional | 5.946% | 5.980% | -0.034% |
| 30-Year Jumbo | 6.799% | 6.830% | -0.031% |
| 30-Year FHA | 6.137% | 6.161% | -0.024% |
| 30-Year VA | 6.227% | 6.252% | -0.025% |
Key Insights:
- A 30-year mortgage at 6.759% on a $300,000 loan would result in roughly $401,132 in interest over the life of the loan .
- A 15-year mortgage at 5.946% on the same $300,000 loan would result in roughly $154,108 in interest .
Housing Market Update
New Listings Hit 4-Year High
New listings of U.S. homes for sale rose 2.1% from a week earlier on a seasonally adjusted basis, reaching their highest level in four years .
Key Data:
- Pending Home Sales: Essentially flat (-0.1%) from a week earlier, dipping to their lowest level since February .
- Home-Sale Price: The typical U.S. home-sale price rose 2.2% year-over-year .
- Median Asking Price: Inched down 0.1% year-over-year, suggesting sellers may be adjusting expectations .
- Bidding Wars: Over one-quarter (25.9%) of homes sold went for over asking price .
Market Assessment:
“The disconnect between growing listings and sluggish sales is exacerbating the buyer’s market we’re seeing in most of the country” . High housing costs remain the biggest hurdle for prospective buyers .
08 UPCOMING EVENTS — FOCUS ON JOBS DATA
Friday, September 4:
- US Non-Farm Payrolls (key event of the week)
- US Unemployment Rate
- US Average Hourly Earnings
- Treasury Buyback Operation: September 9 buyback will test whether the Treasury can improve liquidity at the margin as the market absorbs fresh supply .
Market Expectations:
- A weak payrolls report would reinforce Waller’s dovish position, potentially pushing Treasury yields and the dollar lower while supporting gold, Bitcoin and equities .
- Conversely, stronger employment and wage data could revive expectations for a September hike, strengthening the dollar and yields and putting pressure on risk assets .
09 STRATEGIC ADVISORY
US Equities
- Current: Strong rally following Waller’s dovish comments; yields falling
- Focus: Non-Farm Payrolls data Friday will confirm or undermine the dovish thesis
- Key Levels: S&P 500 support at 7,600, resistance at 7,750-7,800
European Equities
- Current: STOXX 600 649.10 (+0.49%), DAX 26,003.32 (+0.63%)
- Outlook: Following US cues; bond market stability is key
Asian Equities
- Current: Nikkei +1.3%, Hang Seng +1.7%, KOSPI +1.6%
- China: Shanghai Composite -0.3%; weakness persists
Oil
- Current: Brent $96.40/bbl (+0.8%), WTI $92.09/bbl (+1.2%)
- Key Levels: Brent resistance $97.40-$98.30, then $100; support $95.70-$96.00
- Risk: US-Iran conflict escalation could push Brent above $100
Gold
- Current: $4,508/oz (+2.1%)
- Key Levels: Resistance $4,500-$4,550, support $4,420-$4,430
- Outlook: A break above $4,500 strengthens the recovery; long-term bullish structure remains intact
Bitcoin & Crypto
- BTC: $80,000+ following Waller’s comments; briefly approached $82,000
- Outlook: Sustainability depends on continued ETF inflows and spot demand
US Housing Market
- Mortgage Rates: 30-year at 6.759%, easing slightly
- Listings: New listings hit 4-year high, pending sales at lowest since February
- Buyer’s Market: Growing supply and sluggish demand favor buyers in most regions
Risk Management
- Geopolitics: US-Iran conflict remains elevated; oil supply risk is immediate
- Jobs Report: Friday’s NFP is the key catalyst; will confirm or undermine dovish shift
- Bond Yields: 10-year at 4.77%, down from multi-year highs but still elevated
- Treasury Buybacks: September 9 operation to test liquidity conditions
Joe Rogers & Aristotle AI
Senior Macro Strategist
September 4, 2026
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Tags: S&P 500, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, DAX, CAC 40, FTSE 100, STOXX 600, Nikkei 225, Hang Seng, KOSPI, Shanghai Composite, Brent Crude, WTI Crude, Gold, Bitcoin, US Treasury Yields, US Iran Conflict, Strait of Hormuz, Geopolitical Risk, Federal Reserve, Waller, Fed Rate Pause, Non-Farm Payrolls, Jobs Report, US Housing Market, Mortgage Rates, Private Equity, Blackstone, Joe Rogers Aristotle AI, September 4 2026
INVESTMENT DAILY — 2026年9月4日
成立于公元2000年 ✌
机构情报与全球市场分析
日期： 2026年9月4日
作者： Joe Rogers & Aristotle AI — 高级宏观策略师
状态： 战略情报 / 高度机密
执行摘要：沃勒鸽派言论引爆风险资产全面上涨，黄金逼近4500美元，比特币突破82000美元
2026年9月4日 — 全球市场迎来强劲的风险偏好回升。美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒释放鸽派信号，表示若通胀持续缓解，他愿意支持9月维持利率不变。这一表态推动9月加息概率从63.2%骤降至50%，美债收益率从多年高位回落，美元延续跌势，风险资产全面大涨。
美股三大指数均录得至少1%涨幅，标普500指数创近一个月最大单日涨幅。标普500涨1.06%报7747.71点，纳指涨1.4%报26584.06点，道指涨1.18%报53686.11点。特斯拉涨超5%，英伟达涨1.8%，微软涨2.68%，Meta涨3.01%。
黄金再度迫近4500美元关口，现货黄金涨2.07%报4472.28美元/盎司，COMEX黄金期货涨2.39%报4520.30美元/盎司。比特币强势突破82000美元，创今年5月以来新高，日内高点触及82016.08美元。欧洲三大股指全线收涨，亚洲市场多数走高，日经225涨1.26%，恒生指数涨1.74%。
油价方面，布伦特原油收涨0.3%报95.92美元/桶，WTI原油收涨0.73%报91.67美元/桶。美国10年期国债收益率跌1.4个基点报4.766%。投资者正密切关注周五的非农就业报告，寻找美联储未来利率路径的进一步线索。
关键市场信号：
| 资产 | 价格/点位 | 涨跌幅 |
|---|---|---|
| 标普500指数 | 7747.71点 | +1.06% |
| 纳斯达克指数 | 26584.06点 | +1.40% |
| 道琼斯指数 | 53686.11点 | +1.18% |
| 德国DAX指数 | 26003.32点 | +0.63% |
| 英国富时100指数 | 10831.52点 | +0.70% |
| 法国CAC40指数 | 8286.40点 | +0.07% |
| STOXX 600指数 | 649.10点 | +0.49% |
| 日经225指数 | 65020.94点 | +1.26% |
| 恒生指数 | 25650.87点 | +1.74% |
| 韩国KOSPI指数 | 6687.21点 | +1.64% |
| 上证指数 | 3930.12点 | -0.30% |
| 布伦特原油 | 95.92美元/桶 | +0.30% |
| WTI原油 | 91.67美元/桶 | +0.73% |
| 现货黄金 | 4472.28美元/盎司 | +2.07% |
| COMEX黄金期货 | 4520.30美元/盎司 | +2.39% |
| 比特币（BTC） | 约81000-82000美元 | +4%至+6% |
| 美元指数 | 99.00 | -0.56% |
| 美国10年期国债收益率 | 4.766% | -1.4个基点 |
01 美国股市 — 沃勒鸽派言论引爆全面上涨
美股周四全线大涨，标普500指数创近一个月最大单日涨幅。三大指数均录得至少1%涨幅。美联储理事沃勒表示，若通胀持续显现缓解迹象，他愿意支持维持利率不变。CME“美联储观察”工具显示，9月加息概率从63.2%降至50%。
| 指数 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 |
|---|---|---|
| 标普500指数 | 7747.71点 | +1.06%（+81.11点） |
| 纳斯达克指数 | 26584.06点 | +1.40%（+366.23点） |
| 道琼斯指数 | 53686.11点 | +1.18%（+624.16点） |
科技股集体上涨：
- 特斯拉涨5.42%，市场对其Cybercab活动充满期待
- Meta涨3.01%
- 微软涨2.68%
- 英伟达涨1.8%
- 谷歌-A涨1.59%
- 亚马逊涨1.54%
- 苹果涨1%
比特币概念股暴涨：
受比特币突破82000美元带动，相关概念股集体飙升：
- 嘉楠科技涨27.82%
- Strategy（原MicroStrategy）涨17.56%
- Robinhood涨16.57%
- Coinbase涨10.14%
软件股和AI概念股走强：
- Snowflake涨16.55%，AI相关产品推动业绩超预期增长
- SpaceX涨6.42%
- ServiceNow、赛富时、Adobe等软件股同步走高
- 黄金股普遍走高，金田涨7.21%，纽蒙特涨逾4%
中概股方面，纳斯达克中国金龙指数收跌0.81%，携程集团跌超5%，拼多多跌0.75%，网易跌1.63%。
02 欧洲股市 — 结束三连跌，法国Soitec暴涨10.3%
欧洲股市周四结束连续三天的下跌，泛欧STOXX 600指数收涨0.49%报649.10点。此前全球债券市场抛售有所缓解，投资者等待美国经济数据以判断美联储利率路径。
| 指数 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 |
|---|---|---|
| 德国DAX指数 | 26003.32点 | +0.63%（+163.99点） |
| 英国富时100指数 | 10831.52点 | +0.70%（+75.07点） |
| 法国CAC40指数 | 8286.40点 | +0.07%（+5.77点） |
| STOXX 600指数 | 649.10点 | +0.49%（+3.19点） |
个股亮点：
法国半导体材料制造商Soitec暴涨10.3%，成为STOXX 600最大涨幅个股。公司将其2027财年第二季度营收增长预期从此前的30%上调至50%。
欧洲股市近期持续承压，主要因伊朗战争升级推高油价，加剧了市场对持续通胀、政府债务上升以及货币政策收紧的担忧。分析师指出，“只要双方没有全面停止攻击，大宗商品价格很难显著下跌，央行也将继续警惕通胀风险”。
03 亚洲市场 — 多数上涨，唯A股收跌
亚洲主要股市周五多数上涨，仅A股全线收跌。全球11个亚太指数中6个上涨、5个下跌，整体情绪偏暖。
| 指数 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 |
|---|---|---|
| 恒生指数 | 25650.87点 | +1.74%（+437.56点） |
| 韩国KOSPI指数 | 6687.21点 | +1.64%（+107.73点） |
| 日经225指数 | 65020.94点 | +1.26%（+806.46点） |
| 国企指数 | 8555.03点 | +2.02% |
| 台湾加权指数 | 46551.13点 | +1.51% |
| 上证指数 | 3930.12点 | -0.30%（-11.97点） |
| 深证成指 | 13516.97点 | -0.79% |
| 创业板指 | 3286.55点 | -0.78% |
中国市场分析：
A股成为亚洲主要市场中唯一收跌的。上证指数盘中一度触及3980.20点的高位，但午后持续走弱，最终收于3930.12点。深证成指和创业板指分别下跌0.79%和0.78%。市场人士认为，A股的独立下跌反映出投资者对国内经济复苏节奏的担忧，以及全球地缘政治不确定性对风险偏好的压制。
04 石油市场 — 油价小幅收涨，仍处高位
国际油价周四小幅收涨，但整体仍处于高位。布伦特原油收涨0.3%报95.92美元/桶，WTI原油收涨0.73%报91.67美元/桶。
| 品种 | 价格 | 涨跌幅 |
|---|---|---|
| 布伦特原油 | 95.92美元/桶 | +0.30% |
| WTI原油 | 91.67美元/桶 | +0.73% |
欧洲股市近期持续受到油价高企的压制，因该地区高度依赖能源进口。尽管周四油价有所回落，但仍维持在95美元/桶上方。市场担心美伊冲突升级可能进一步扰乱供应，而任何停火信号都可能引发油价的剧烈回调。
05 黄金与贵金属 — 黄金大涨逾2%，逼近4500美元
受美元走弱和美联储加息预期降温推动，黄金价格大幅走高。现货黄金涨2.07%报4472.28美元/盎司，COMEX黄金期货涨2.39%报4520.30美元/盎司。
| 品种 | 价格 | 涨跌幅 |
|---|---|---|
| 现货黄金 | 4472.28美元/盎司 | +2.07% |
| COMEX黄金期货 | 4520.30美元/盎司 | +2.39% |
| COMEX白银期货 | 67.58美元/盎司 | +3.24% |
黄金股周四普遍走高。金田涨7.21%，纽蒙特涨逾4%。
基本金属方面，伦敦金属交易所基本金属多数上涨：
- LME期铜涨1.03%报14362.0美元/吨
- LME期铝涨1.04%报3317.5美元/吨
- LME期锡涨1.23%报54900.0美元/吨
- LME期锌涨0.84%报3897.5美元/吨
- LME期镍微跌0.05%报16905.0美元/吨
06 债券市场 — 美债收益率从多年高位回落
美国国债收益率周四全线下跌，从多年高位回落。10年期美债收益率跌1.4个基点报4.766%，此前周三盘中一度触及4.818%的高位。2年期美债收益率跌3.09个基点报4.338%，30年期美债收益率跌0.95个基点报5.249%。
欧洲国债收益率同样普遍下跌：
- 英国10年期国债收益率跌9.6个基点报5.134%
- 法国10年期国债收益率跌4.8个基点报4.202%
- 德国10年期国债收益率跌3.3个基点报3.340%
- 意大利10年期国债收益率跌5个基点报4.156%
07 加密货币 — 比特币突破82000美元，创5月以来新高
比特币在沃勒鸽派言论推动下强势突破82000美元，创今年5月以来新高。BTC于9月4日触及日内高点82016.08美元，从约77200美元支撑位上涨约4800美元（+6.2%）。截至发稿，比特币报81032美元，24小时涨幅4.08%，市值约1.627万亿美元，24小时交易额达413.1亿美元。
核心驱动因素：
沃勒表示若通胀持续放缓，将支持9月维持利率不变。9月加息隐含概率从63.2%降至约50%，美债收益率下跌，美元走弱，股市和大宗商品全面加入风险偏好行情。空头回补、ETF资金流入以及机构需求重燃进一步放大了涨幅。
以太坊涨至2510.15美元，24小时涨约5%。Zcash以15%涨幅领跑山寨币。
08 宏观数据与政策事件
美联储理事沃勒鸽派讲话（9月3日）
美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒表示：“如果我们继续朝着2%的目标取得进展，那么我愿意支持将政策利率维持在当前水平。但如果通胀数据表现强劲，我会考虑加息。”沃勒强调，他的利率决定将“深受”下周公布的8月CPI数据影响。
CME“美联储观察”工具显示，沃勒讲话后，9月加息概率从63.2%降至50%。
OpenAI发布GPT-6大模型
科技领域方面，OpenAI的GPT-6大模型公开亮相，为AI产业提供了新的上涨动力。
美国非农就业数据（9月4日）
经济学家预计美国8月新增非农就业人数为5.5万人，将大体符合今年以来美国就业增长的平均水平。非农数据公布后，美债收益率走高，10年期美债收益率上涨3.02个基点报4.792%。市场将密切关注该数据对9月美联储利率决策的最终影响。
09 战略建议
美国股市
- 当前： 标普500 7747.71点（+1.06%），道指53686.11点（+1.18%），纳指26584.06点（+1.40%）
- 展望： 沃勒鸽派言论推动加息预期大幅降温，风险偏好显著回升。关注周五非农数据对9月利率决议的最终影响。
- 关键水平： 标普500支撑位7600，阻力位7800。
欧洲股市
- 当前： STOXX 600 649.10点（+0.49%），DAX 26003.32点（+0.63%）
- 展望： 债券市场抛售缓解为股市提供支撑，但高油价和通胀担忧仍是主要风险。
亚洲市场
- 日本： 日经225 +1.26%，受全球风险偏好回升推动
- 香港： 恒生指数 +1.74%，国企指数 +2.02%领涨亚太
- 中国： 上证指数 -0.30%，A股成为亚洲主要市场中唯一收跌的
石油
- 当前： 布伦特95.92美元/桶（+0.3%），WTI 91.67美元/桶（+0.73%）
- 地缘政治风险： 美伊冲突持续，油价仍处高位
- 关键水平： 布伦特支撑位93美元，阻力位98美元
黄金与贵金属
- 当前： 现货黄金4472.28美元/盎司（+2.07%），COMEX黄金4520.30美元/盎司（+2.39%）
- 驱动因素： 美元走弱、加息预期降温
- 关键水平： 黄金阻力位4500美元，支撑位4400美元
比特币与加密货币
- BTC： 约81000-82000美元，日内高点82016.08美元
- 驱动因素： 美联储加息概率骤降、美元走弱、空头回补
- 关键水平： 支撑位80000美元，阻力位83000美元
债券市场
- 10年期美债收益率： 4.766%（-1.4个基点）
- 2年期美债收益率： 4.338%（-3.09个基点）
- 展望： 加息预期降温推动收益率从多年高位回落
风险管理
- 地缘政治： 美伊冲突持续，霍尔木兹海峡风险仍存
- 美联储政策： 9月加息概率降至50%，但非农数据和下周CPI数据将最终决定方向
- 通胀风险： 油价高企仍是通胀压力的主要来源
- 关键数据： 周五非农就业报告是下一个重要催化剂
Joe Rogers & Aristotle AI
高级宏观策略师
2026年9月4日
© 2026 Bernd Pulch 档案 / 安全镜像。成立于公元2000年。
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