Ambiguous Threats and External Influences in the Baltic States Phase 2: Assessing the Threat
Page Count: 68 pages
Date: November 2015
Restriction: None
Originating Organization: Asymmetric Operations Working Group, Asymmetric Warfare Group, Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory
File Type: pdf
File Size: 3,554,802 bytes
File Hash (SHA-256):89C66F94CEAEB07F31B2CB6A25556413763706FD02CDA06347D785CB7BCE3C9E
• Russia’s strategic objectives in the Baltic region do not focus on the Baltic States as final targets, but on using the Batlic States to discredit and dismantle the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and undermining the European Union (EU) by using the Baltic States. Experts in Russia and European security from the United States and the Baltic region agree that Russia could use the Baltic States toward this end by employing any one of a spectrum of actions, to include direct invasion with conventional forces, an incursion and occupation using irregular forces like the one witnessed in Crimea in 2014, or longterm fostering of social, political, and economic instability. Disagreement existed among experts as to which approach was more likely.
• NATO’s Article 5 commitment to collective defense in the case of an armed attack makes a direct invasion with conventional forces highly unlikely, though not without its proponents. More likely, according to several experts, are longterm efforts to destabilize the Baltic States through social, economic, and political levers because the Kremlin does not wish to risk a conventional armed conflict with NATO.
• Russia stands to gain little by taking Baltic territory, with the exception of a land corridor to Kaliningrad through Lithuania. The prospect of a more unified and reinvigorated NATO in response to Russian annexation of Baltic territory deters Russian invasion and occupation.
• Internal unrest aimed at changing the government in Moscow continues to be one of the Putin administration’s chief concerns. This and other domestic concerns can prompt and drive Russian foreign policy. For instance, taking bold actions in its near abroad is used to support arguments for preserving the current regime.
• From an energy perspective, Lithuania stands in the most vulnerable position after losing its status as a net exporter of energy, but certain interdependencies between Russia and all three Baltic States decrease the potential efficacy of energy as a lever of influence. Russia has demonstrated, however, that it is willing to suffer economic losses for political gain.
• Regarding economic relations, Russia could leverage the actual economic marginalization of Russian compatriot populations, who earn less and have higher unemployment rates than ethnic Balts. However, the Baltic investment and export/import environments are increasingly insulated from Russian interference by greater ties with the Nordic countries and the rest of the EU, as well as the ability to find and tap into alternative markets when Russia has imposed embargoes in recent months. The logistics and transit sectors remain vulnerable because of heavy Russian involvement and ownership.
• Russian media dominate the information space with programming superior in quality, variety, and quantity in part because it receives extensive funding and support from the Kremlin. Russian compatriot populations typically choose to engage in this information space, and youth tend to eschew all TV and printed media in favor of Internet sources for news and entertainment. Russian media present a perspective that derides the Baltic States and its allies and exalts Russia and its predecessor, the Soviet Union. Laws and regulations have proven ineffective at tempering Russian messaging or holding Russian media companies accountable.
• Moscow supports and organizes non-government organizations (NGOs) in each Baltic State that enforce Russia’s compatriots policy, a program intended to foment social and political tension in countries where Russian compatriots reside by calling attention to alleged human rights violations and advocating interpretations of history that vilify that country and make the Soviet Union heroic. A popular position among Russian compatriot groups in the Baltic States continues to be that those countries support the rise of neo-fascism and neo-Nazism targeting Russian residents. Russian agents and provocateurs have attempted to organize protests and demonstrations against the Baltic governments but have been able to mobilize few people.
• Citizenship and language reforms in Estonia and Latvia remain contentious issues, but the percentages of stateless persons continues to decrease, and youth whose first language is Russian increasingly acquire Estonian and Latvian as a second language to gain better education and employment prospects.
• The Russian compatriot populations in the Baltic States are diverse and complex and do not represent unified segments of those national populations. The Polish minority in Lithuania is more organized and united in its support of Russian policies and deserves greater attention than it currently receives. Among the Russian compatriot populations, there appears to be a psychological crisis wherein many support Russia emotionally as their homeland, but struggle to rationally explain or reconcile Russia’s actions in eastern Ukraine with their idea of a benevolent Russia. Many reported a Crimea-like scenario could not occur in the Baltic States. A large contributor to that perception is that the standard of living in the EU incentivizes Russian compatriots not to repatriate and not to desire Russian interference, though they may desire certain policy changes by the Baltic governments.
• From a military perspective, the Baltic States depend on the NATO alliance to deter and, if necessary, answer military threats. Individually, the Baltic militaries remain too small to defend themselves against a full-scale Russian invasion, but the relatively high levels of professionalism and capability of their border guards and law enforcement provide protection from border incursions and internal disturbances growing out of control. Recent legislation in Latvia and Lithuania, as well as 2007/2008 legislation in Estonia, clarifies the circumstances in which national militaries can be mobilized internally and how they are to support law enforcement bodies.
• Overall, the Russian threat to the Baltic States resides much more in efforts to divide their societies than it does in efforts to annex their territory. A conventional invasion by Russian armed forces risks a revitalized NATO newly unified against it without acquiring significant gain, while Russian-sponsored NGOs and political parties could potentially sow sufficient discord in each country as to make them liabilities for NATO and the EU without incurring an Article 5 response.
Top Secret Movie, Top Secret Clearance, Top Secret Recipes, Top Secret Wisconsin Dells, Top Secret Uv Pen, Top Secret Kpop, Top Secret Clearance Jobs, Top Secret Sci, Top Secret Stamp, Top Secret Crossword, Top Secret Adventures, Top Secret Aircraft, Top Secret America, Top Secret Arlington Hotel, Top Secret Agent, Top Secret Aircraft 2017, Top Secret Audio, Top Secret Agencies, Top Secret Area 51, Top Secret America Frontline, Top Secret Book, Top Secret Band, Top Secret Bras, Top Secret Background Check, Top Secret Ballet, Top Secret Boston Hotel, Top Secret Beaches, Top Secret Band Song, Top Secret Body Kit, Top Secret Business, Top Secret Clearance, Top Secret Clearance Jobs, Top Secret Crossword, Top Secret Clearance Requirements, Top Secret Coatings, Top Secret Clearance Polygraph, Top Secret Clearance Levels, Top Secret Clipart, Top Secret Clearance Process, Top Secret Cast, Top Secret Drum Corps, Top Secret Definition, Top Secret Documents, Top Secret Drumline, Top Secret Diffuser, Top Secret Designs, Top Secret Deer Scent, Top Secret Document Template, Top Secret Drum Corps Youtube, Top Secret Dells, Top Secret Envelope, Top Secret Emoji, Top Secret Eyes Only, Top Secret Envelope Template, Top Secret Epoxy, Top Secret Eligibility, Top Secret Escape Room Moore Ok, Top Secret Escape Room, Top Secret Extensions, Top Secret Egg White Protein, Top Secret Font, Top Secret Folder, Top Secret File, Top Secret Full Movie, Top Secret Film, Top Secret File Folder, Top Secret Facility Clearance, Top Secret Folder Image, Top Secret Fighter Jets, Top Secret Floor Coating, Top Secret Gif, Top Secret Game, Top Secret Garcinia Cambogia Supplement, Top Secret Glendale Hotel, Top Secret Gtr, Top Secret Government Files, Top Secret Government, Top Secret Government Jobs, Top Secret Gold, Top Secret Graphic, Top Secret Hair, Top Secret Hotels, Top Secret Hotel Chicago, Top Secret Highlights, Top Secret Hotel New Orleans, Top Secret Hair Thickening Fibers Reviews, Top Secret Hair Fibers, Top Secret Hotel San Diego, Top Secret Hotel Boston, Top Secret Hotel Washington Dc, Top Secret Information, Top Secret Images, Top Secret Imdb, Top Secret Iphone Case, Top Secret In Spanish, Top Secret Info Dump, Top Secret Information Leaked, Top Secret Icon, Top Secret Import Tuning, Top Secret Invitation, Top Secret Jobs, Top Secret Japan, Top Secret Jon Renau, Top Secret Jets, Top Secret Jig Co, Top Secret Journal Set, Top Secret John Reynolds Gardiner, Top Secret Jokes, Top Secret Jdm, Top Secret Japan Jacket, Top Secret Kpop, Top Secret Kyeongha, Top Secret Kennels, Top Secret Kpop Debut, Top Secret Kpop Songs, Top Secret Kickstarter, Top Secret Kyungha, Top Secret Kilmer, Top Secret Kpop Album, Top Secret Kp4, Top Secret Logo, Top Secret Leaks, Top Secret Levels, Top Secret Label, Top Secret Locations, Top Secret Lake Placid Hotel, Top Secret License To Spy, Top Secret Letter, Top Secret Little German, Top Secret L Carnitine, Top Secret Movie, Top Secret Meme, Top Secret Midge, Top Secret Members, Top Secret Mission, Top Secret Meaning, Top Secret Movie Quotes, Top Secret Military Bases, Top Secret Miami Hotel, Top Secret Montego Bay Hotel, Top Secret Nutrition, Top Secret New World Order, Top Secret Nutrition Pump Igniter, Top Secret News, Top Secret Nails, Top Secret Nutrition Digestive Enzymes, Top Secret Noforn, Top Secret Nigel, Top Secret New World Order Rpg, Top Secret Notebook, Top Secret Orcon, Top Secret Oil Cap, Top Secret Operations, Top Secret Online, Top Secret Opening Scene, Top Secret On Netflix, Top Secret On Amazon, Top Secret Online Free, Top Secret Movie, Top Secret Of The World, Top Secret Passcode, Top Secret Profile, Top Secret Png, Top Secret Planes, Top Secret Places, Top Secret Punta Cana Resort, Top Secret Parsippany Hotel, Top Secret Pen, Top Secret Popcorn, Top Secret Paint, Top Secret Quotes, Top Secret Q Clearance, Top Secret Questions, Top Secret Quizlet, Top Secret Questionnaire, Top Secret Questions To Ask A Girl, Top Secret Qartulad, Top Secret Quarter Horse Stallion, Top Secret Quadium32 Answers, Top Secret Qualifications, Top Secret Recipes, Top Secret Rosies, Top Secret Rpg, Top Secret Recipes Tv Show, Top Secret Recipes Pdf, Top Secret Restaurant Recipes Pdf, Top Secret Rear Diffuser, Top Secret R32, Top Secret Recipes Kfc, Top Secret Racing, Top Secret Security Clearance, Top Secret Sci, Top Secret Stamp, Top Secret Supra, Top Secret Swimming Holes, Top Secret Synonym, Top Secret Sign, Top Secret Societies, Top Secret Security Clearance Disqualifiers, Top Secret Stamp Font, Top Secret Trailer, Top Secret The Movie, Top Secret Tuning, Top Secret Technology, Top Secret Techs, Top Secret Topper, Top Secret Trip, Top Secret Template, Top Secret Twenty One, Top Secret The Revelation, Top Secret Uv Pen, Top Secret Umbra, Top Secret Us Weapons, Top Secret Us Planes, Top Secret Ufo, Top Secret Ultra, Top Secret Us Military Bases, Top Secret Usa, Top Secret Unexplained, Top Secret Usb, Top Secret Vs Secret, Top Secret Videos, Top Secret Vector, Top Secret Vs Sci, Top Secret Val Kilmer Singing, Top Secret Val, Top Secret Vs Classified, Top Secret Vive La France, Top Secret V12 Supra, Top Secret Val Kilmer Netflix, Top Secret Wisconsin Dells, Top Secret Weapons, Top Secret Websites, Top Secret Waterfalls, Top Secret With Sci, Top Secret Wallpaper, Top Secret Weapons Revealed, Top Secret Wiki, Top Secret Wigs, Top Secret Words, Top Secret Xword, Top Secret X Thermal Paste, Top Secret X Factor Bra, Top Secret Xat-7, Top Secret X Planes, Top Secret X Files, Top Secret Xat-7 Anabolic Fat Burner, Top Secret Xauth, Top Secret Xa Dataset, Top Secret X, Top Secret Youtube, Top Secret Yorha Disposal, Top Secret Yellow Jackets, Top Secret Yankee White, Top Secret Yohan, Top Secret Ysl, Top Secret Yify, Top Secret Yohan Vixx, Top Secret Ysl Pantip, Top Secret Ysl Review, Top Secret Z33, Top Secret Zebra Stripes, Top Secret Zebra Badge, Top Secret Zwrot, Top Secret Zuschauerwettbewerb, Top Secret Zwrot Towaru, Top Secret Zwroty W Sklepie Stacjonarnym