Tag: North Korea Life Expectancy

TOP SECRET – U.S. Army Threat Tactics Report: North Korea

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Page Count: 53 pages
Date: October 2015
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Originating Organization: TRADOC G-2 ACE Threats Integration
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The Korean peninsula is a location of strategic interest for the US in the Pacific Command (PACOM), and many observers note that North Korea is an unpredictable and potentially volatile actor. According to the Department of Defense in its report to Congress and the intelligence community, the DPRK “remains one of the United States’ most critical security challenges for many reasons. These include North Korea’s willingness to undertake provocative and destabilizing behavior, including attacks on the Republic of Korea (ROK), its pursuit of nuclear weapons and long-range ballistic missiles, and its willingness to proliferate weapons in contravention of United Nations Security Council Resolutions.” Some of the latest evidence of irrational behavior is the elevation of Kim Jong Un’s 26-year old sister to a high governmental post late in 2014, the computer hacking of the Sony Corporation supposedly by North Korea during late 2014 over the possible release of a film that mocked Kim Jong Un, and the April 2015 execution of a defense chief for allegedly nodding off during a meeting. Over the past 50 years, North Korea has sporadically conducted operations directed against its enemies, especially South Korea. These actions included attacks on South Korean naval vessels, the capturing of a US ship and holding American hostages for 11 months, the hijacking of a South Korean airline jet, electronic warfare against South Korean signals including global positioning satellites (GPS), and assassinations or attempted assassinations on South Korean officials including the ROK president. The attempted 1968 Blue House Raid by North Korean elite military personnel resulted in the death or capture of all 31 infiltrators involved in the assassination attempt as well as the death of 71 personnel, including three Americans, and the injury of 66 others as the North Korean SPF personnel attempted to escape back to DPRK territory.

The purpose of this North Korean Threat Tactics Report (TTR) is to explain to the Army training community how North Korea fights including its doctrine, force structure, weapons and equipment, and the warfighting functions. A TTR also identifies where the conditions specific to the actor are present in Decisive Action Training Environment (DATE) and other training materials so that these conditions can easily be implemented across all training venues.

Executive Summary

  • North Korea is an oligarchy with Kim Jong Un as its supreme leader.
  • The DPRK is a militaristic society with about 1.2 million active duty personnel in uniform out of a population of 24 million with another 7.7 million in the reserve forces.
  • All military personnel serve under the umbrella of the Korean People’s Army (KPA); the Korean People’s Air Force (KPAF) and Korean People’s Navy (KPN) primarily support the KPA ground forces.
  • The KPAF focuses on homeland defense and close air support to the KPA.
  • The KPN’s primary mission is to protect the North Korean coastline and support the KPA special purpose forces (SPF) in mission execution.
  • Much of the equipment in all military branches is old and obsolete, but the KPA has concentrated its modernization efforts on missile technology that may provide the means to successfully launch a nuclear warhead.
  • North Korea possesses a nuclear weapon and is modernizing its missile fleet in order to increase the attack range for its nuclear arsenal.
  • North Korea possesses both chemical and biological weapons.
  • The KPA practices both passive and active camouflage to hide its units, headquarters, and other important resources from the air.

…

Weaknesses

Although the North Korean military may feature some positive attributes as a fighting force, the KPA also suffers from many weaknesses as well. Much of the military’s equipment is old and obsolete. The North Korean military consciously refuses to rid itself of any equipment and still operate tanks that date back to World War II. This wide range of military hardware from many generations of warfare also generates logistical issues. The KPA’s supply personnel must not only find the spare parts for a large variety of equipment, the KPA maintenance personnel must be well-versed in the repair of a great assortment of vehicles and weapons. In addition, the DPRK lacks the logistical capability to support the KPA beyond a few months. Due to the shortage of fuel and the cost to operate vehicles for a cash-strapped country, many of the KPA soldiers find themselves involved in public works projects or helping farmers bring in their rice crops. Any time spent in non-military support is less time that the KPA soldiers can spend training for combat. Even the mechanized and armor forces, due to resource restraints, spend much of their training time doing light infantry training instead of mounted operations. While KPA soldiers may be well trained in individual skills or small unit tactics, the amount of time spent on larger exercises pales in comparison to most Western militaries. Without adequate time and resources to practice large scale military operations, the KPA will always face a steep learning curve when the KPA is forced to perform them in actual combat for the first time.

…

…

The DPRK’s unorthodox use of provocation in order to obtain concessions from its enemies—especially the US, South Korea, and Japan—is a danger. One never knows what North Korea will do next as, in the past, the DPRK has sanctioned assassination attempts on South Korean political leaders and conducted bombings when South Korean contingents are in another country, unannounced attacks on ships by submarines, unprovoked artillery attacks, or has tunneled underground into another country. US military personnel stationed in South Korea must be prepared for the unexpected from the DPRK.

One of these incidents could ignite the Korean peninsula back into a full-blown war. While an armistice has been in place since 1953, an armistice is just a ceasefire waiting for a peace treaty to be signed or for the resumption of hostilities. Any conflict between North and South Korea would inevitably bring the US into the conflict as the ROK has been an ally for over six decades.

North Korea’s possession of nuclear weapons and the missiles to transport it up to 9,650 km makes it a threat to US forces stationed in Korea, Japan, Alaska, or even the west coast of the continental United States. Even more concerning was the DPRK’s first successful test launch of a KN-11 missile from a submarine on 23 January 2015 since, in the near future, the North Korean submarines could silently move closer to their targets before launching a nuclear missile that would give the US less warning time. If the DPRK thought that the survival of its country or the Kim regime was at stake, North Korea might use any nuclear weapons at its disposal. The KPA also possesses chemical weapons and its doctrine calls for their employment. The DPRK is also involved in biological weapons research and would likely use those with offensive capabilities. US military personnel training for deployment to South Korea must be prepared to fight in a chemical, biological, or nuclear environment.

EXPOSED – U.S. Army Threat Tactics Report: North Korea

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The Korean peninsula is a location of strategic interest for the US in the Pacific Command (PACOM), and many observers note that North Korea is an unpredictable and potentially volatile actor. According to the Department of Defense in its report to Congress and the intelligence community, the DPRK “remains one of the United States’ most critical security challenges for many reasons. These include North Korea’s willingness to undertake provocative and destabilizing behavior, including attacks on the Republic of Korea (ROK), its pursuit of nuclear weapons and long-range ballistic missiles, and its willingness to proliferate weapons in contravention of United Nations Security Council Resolutions.” Some of the latest evidence of irrational behavior is the elevation of Kim Jong Un’s 26-year old sister to a high governmental post late in 2014, the computer hacking of the Sony Corporation supposedly by North Korea during late 2014 over the possible release of a film that mocked Kim Jong Un, and the April 2015 execution of a defense chief for allegedly nodding off during a meeting. Over the past 50 years, North Korea has sporadically conducted operations directed against its enemies, especially South Korea. These actions included attacks on South Korean naval vessels, the capturing of a US ship and holding American hostages for 11 months, the hijacking of a South Korean airline jet, electronic warfare against South Korean signals including global positioning satellites (GPS), and assassinations or attempted assassinations on South Korean officials including the ROK president. The attempted 1968 Blue House Raid by North Korean elite military personnel resulted in the death or capture of all 31 infiltrators involved in the assassination attempt as well as the death of 71 personnel, including three Americans, and the injury of 66 others as the North Korean SPF personnel attempted to escape back to DPRK territory.

The purpose of this North Korean Threat Tactics Report (TTR) is to explain to the Army training community how North Korea fights including its doctrine, force structure, weapons and equipment, and the warfighting functions. A TTR also identifies where the conditions specific to the actor are present in Decisive Action Training Environment (DATE) and other training materials so that these conditions can easily be implemented across all training venues.

Executive Summary

North Korea is an oligarchy with Kim Jong Un as its supreme leader.
The DPRK is a militaristic society with about 1.2 million active duty personnel in uniform out of a population of 24 million with another 7.7 million in the reserve forces.
All military personnel serve under the umbrella of the Korean People’s Army (KPA); the Korean People’s Air Force (KPAF) and Korean People’s Navy (KPN) primarily support the KPA ground forces.
The KPAF focuses on homeland defense and close air support to the KPA.
The KPN’s primary mission is to protect the North Korean coastline and support the KPA special purpose forces (SPF) in mission execution.
Much of the equipment in all military branches is old and obsolete, but the KPA has concentrated its modernization efforts on missile technology that may provide the means to successfully launch a nuclear warhead.
North Korea possesses a nuclear weapon and is modernizing its missile fleet in order to increase the attack range for its nuclear arsenal.
North Korea possesses both chemical and biological weapons.
The KPA practices both passive and active camouflage to hide its units, headquarters, and other important resources from the air.
…

Weaknesses

Although the North Korean military may feature some positive attributes as a fighting force, the KPA also suffers from many weaknesses as well. Much of the military’s equipment is old and obsolete. The North Korean military consciously refuses to rid itself of any equipment and still operate tanks that date back to World War II. This wide range of military hardware from many generations of warfare also generates logistical issues. The KPA’s supply personnel must not only find the spare parts for a large variety of equipment, the KPA maintenance personnel must be well-versed in the repair of a great assortment of vehicles and weapons. In addition, the DPRK lacks the logistical capability to support the KPA beyond a few months. Due to the shortage of fuel and the cost to operate vehicles for a cash-strapped country, many of the KPA soldiers find themselves involved in public works projects or helping farmers bring in their rice crops. Any time spent in non-military support is less time that the KPA soldiers can spend training for combat. Even the mechanized and armor forces, due to resource restraints, spend much of their training time doing light infantry training instead of mounted operations. While KPA soldiers may be well trained in individual skills or small unit tactics, the amount of time spent on larger exercises pales in comparison to most Western militaries. Without adequate time and resources to practice large scale military operations, the KPA will always face a steep learning curve when the KPA is forced to perform them in actual combat for the first time.

…

…

The DPRK’s unorthodox use of provocation in order to obtain concessions from its enemies—especially the US, South Korea, and Japan—is a danger. One never knows what North Korea will do next as, in the past, the DPRK has sanctioned assassination attempts on South Korean political leaders and conducted bombings when South Korean contingents are in another country, unannounced attacks on ships by submarines, unprovoked artillery attacks, or has tunneled underground into another country. US military personnel stationed in South Korea must be prepared for the unexpected from the DPRK.

One of these incidents could ignite the Korean peninsula back into a full-blown war. While an armistice has been in place since 1953, an armistice is just a ceasefire waiting for a peace treaty to be signed or for the resumption of hostilities. Any conflict between North and South Korea would inevitably bring the US into the conflict as the ROK has been an ally for over six decades.

North Korea’s possession of nuclear weapons and the missiles to transport it up to 9,650 km makes it a threat to US forces stationed in Korea, Japan, Alaska, or even the west coast of the continental United States. Even more concerning was the DPRK’s first successful test launch of a KN-11 missile from a submarine on 23 January 2015 since, in the near future, the North Korean submarines could silently move closer to their targets before launching a nuclear missile that would give the US less warning time. If the DPRK thought that the survival of its country or the Kim regime was at stake, North Korea might use any nuclear weapons at its disposal. The KPA also possesses chemical weapons and its doctrine calls for their employment. The DPRK is also involved in biological weapons research and would likely use those with offensive capabilities. US military personnel training for deployment to South Korea must be prepared to fight in a chemical, biological, or nuclear environment.

 

China’s hold over ‘Rocket Man’ is key to avoiding nuclear war in East Asia

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US President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un are playing a dangerous game of brinkmanship while also trading personal insults.

 

Most recently, Trump blasted the “Rocket Man” in his inaugural speech to the United Nations, promising to “totally destroy” North Korea if it threatens the U.S. or its allies. The Trump Administration also added new sanctions aimed at strangling its ability to work with banks.

Kim, for his part, resorted to calling Trump “mentally deranged” and a “dotard,” while his foreign minister threatened to test a hydrogen bomb in the Pacific.

 

With tensions escalating, it is important to be realistic about how we can get out of this mess.

 

In short, any nonmilitary solution will rely on China choosing to apply its massive economic leverage over the North Korean regime. In a positive sign, China’s central bank recently told Chinese financial companies to stop doing business with North Korea.

 

Overall, however, it appears that China has increased its trade with North Korea in recent years while doing fairly little to forestall North Korea’s nuclear ambitions. China’s foremost objective seems to be promoting greater stability from its volatile neighbor, in part because it fears being faced with a massive humanitarian crisis should the regime collapse.

 

But while the poor quality of the data hinders a detailed analysis, a quick look shows just how much leverage China has, if it wishes to use it.

 

 

North Korea’s primary patron

 

In general, exports from one country to another can be mostly explained by the distance between them and the sizes of their markets, a pattern that holds for China and North Korea.

 

Geographically, they share a long border, which makes China a natural, though not inevitable, partner for trade. As a case in point, North Korea also shares a long border with South Korea, but these countries have almost no trade between them. In addition, North Korea shares a small border with Russia, with whom it has little, though ever-increasing, trade.

 

China’s large market, proximity and – most importantly – willingness to trade with North Korea has led to a situation in which North Korea has become highly dependent on trade with what has become its primary patron. About half of North Korean exports and imports go directly to and from China and most of the rest of its trade is handled indirectly by Chinese middlemen.

 

North Korea’s dependence on its neighbor has grown alongside China’s increasing economic dominance of East Asia, which gained momentum 15 years ago when China joined the World Trade Organization. Since then, both Chinese gross domestic product as well as its annual trade with North Korea have increased nearly tenfold, to around US$11 trillion and $6 billion, respectively.

 

North Korea imports nearly everything from China, from rubber tires to refined petroleum to pears, with no single category dominating. Meanwhile, coal constitutes about 40 percent of North Korean exports to China.

 

Time to use that leverage?

 

However, recent events – such as the use of front companies by Chinese firms to evade sanctions imposed on North Korea and China’s reluctance to cut off energy supplies to the country – have led to some uncertainty about the extent to which China is willing to use this economic leverage to rein in North Korea’s military ambitions.

 

On one hand, China previously claimed to have stopped coal imports from North Korea as part of recent efforts to punish the regime for missile tests and the suspected assassination of Kim Jong-nam, the estranged half-brother of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. This was an important signal of China’s willingness to support U.S. concerns about the missile program since oil represents about a third ($930 million) of North Korea’s import revenue.

 

On the other hand, there is evidence that coal shipments in fact never ceased. And, in any case, China may have increased its imports of iron ore from North Korea to offset the lost coal revenues.

 

This is consistent with the idea that China carefully considers the resources and revenue that are available to the North Korean regime at any moment, and uses trade as a lever to control them. In this way, China walks a fine line between providing too many resources, and thus allowing the regime to prosper, and not enough resources, such that North Korea is in danger of collapsing. Ultimately, trade may be used as a lever to do some light scolding, but China’s overwhelming concern is preventing North Korea’s collapse.

 

Further evidence that China has tight control over the North Korean economy comes from a recent report from C4ADS. The research group found close, and often common, ownership ties between most of the major Chinese companies who do business with North Korea. This suggests that trade with North Korea is highly centralized and thus easily controlled.

 

Russia: North Korea’s other ‘friend’

 

China is not the only country that North Korea trades with, though the others currently pale in comparison. Other top export destinations include India ($97.8 million), Pakistan ($43.1 million) and Burkina Faso ($32.8 million). In terms of imports, India ($108 million), Russia ($78.3 million) and Thailand ($73.8 million) currently sell the most to North Korea.

 

Russia in particular may soon complicate U.S. efforts to isolate the regime. While still small, Russian trade with North Korea increased 73 percent over the first two months of 2017 compared with the same period of the previous year.

 

But whereas China is legitimately worried that an economic crisis in North Korea could lead to a flood of refugees or all-out war, Russia likely sees engagement with North Korea in much simpler terms, namely as an additional way to gain geopolitical advantage relative to the U.S.

 

A way out?

 

Nearly all experts agree that there is no easy way to “solve” the North Korea problem. However, one plausible approach is to encourage South Korea and Japan to begin to develop nuclear weapons programs of their own, and to only discontinue these programs if China takes meaningful steps to use its trade with North Korea to reign in the regime.

 

Threatening to introduce new nuclear powers to the world is clearly risky, however stable and peaceful South Korea and Japan currently are. But China is highly averse to having these economic and political rivals acquire nuclear capabilities, as it would threaten China’s ongoing pursuit of regional control. In short, this is a sensitive pressure point that could be used to sway the Chinese leadership.

 

The Conversation logo

 

One way or another, China must become convinced that the costs of propping up the North Korean regime through trade are higher than the costs of an increased probability that the regime will collapse.

 

This is an updated version of an article originally published on July 6, 2017.

 

Greg Wright, Assistant Professor of Economics, University of California, Merced

 

This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the original article.

US Ballistic Missiles that can END the North Korea in 30 Minutes

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“Preparation for War With USA is Complete”, North Korea Confirms (5 Pics)

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After the latter sent the USS Carl Vinson aircraft carrier with its battle group to the waters off the Korean peninsula, North Korea has made a decision to stand against any further moves by the US. Amongst the other things, this issue seems to be taking up even more heat and tensions between the two nations.

Warning

The consequences will be catastrophic if further provoked by the US following their step of sending the navy battle group, said Pyongyang.

Donald Trump said to solve the problem of North Korea if China doesn’t help to put pressure on its neighbor to stop all missile and nuclear weapons programs they developed.

Tensions increase

The actual decision to send the aircraft carrier and battleships to the Korean peninsula came after tensions increased over previous military drills involving American and South Korean forces, which Pyongyang terms as a performance test for an invasion.

A state-run Korean Central News Agency quoted, “We will hold the US wholly accountable for the catastrophic consequences to be entailed by its outrageous actions.”

Donald Trump’s tweet

Donald Trump used his Twitter to communicate his latest warning aimed at the Pyongyang.

“Most of the US national security establishment accepted that any preventative strike aimed at North Korean nuclear facilities could trigger devastating reprisals against South Korea, Seoul in particular, and US bases in the region. US strike against a Syrian base was also being seen as a warning to North Korea.”

Breaking a UN resolutions

Reports claim that the difficult situation escalated after North Korea refused to obey UN resolutions banning it from developing ballistic missile technology. After that, the Korean nation did another test-launch during Trump’s summit with Xi Jinping in Florida.

Chinese authorities report

The Chinese Foreign officials have ruled down the claims that Beijing has situated 150,000 troops to its border with North Korea. Hua Chunying told reporters that she was uniformed of any mobilization by the People’s Liberation Army along the 880-mile border with North Korea and also claimed such reports are false.

She added that China was very closely following developments on the Korean peninsula.

We only hope that all involved sides should avoid doing any activities that could escalate the tension and make it even worse.

Images source: unknownfacts.info

North Korea wants to reduce the Free World to Ashes – How to help free North Korea

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US Military vs North Korea Military – A War Simulation Video

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The Most Bizarre Show on Earth is in North Korea

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Daytime exterior shots in this series can be as old as August 2010. However, many of the photos are from the recent Arirang Mass Games in Pyongyang in October 2010.  For background on the Arirang Mass Games, see the Guardian’s 2005 article “Welcome to the strangest show on earth” which describes the games as “one of the greatest, strangest, most awe-inspiring political spectacles on earth.”

Rehearsals for the October 10th Worker’s Party anniversary parade. Photo by James Huang.

Kim Il Sung welcomes you to Sunan Airport Pyongyang. Photo by James Huang.

Photo by Crescent Zhang.

Photo by Crescent Zhang.

Photo by Crescent Zhang.

One of the two Pyongyang metro stations tourists are allowed to see – Pyongyang, North Korea. Photo by Daniel K.

Photo by Crescent Zhang.

Propaganda posters at the entrance to the Pyongyang Metro. Photo by efdixon.

Photo by James Huang.

Photo by James Huang.

Photo by James Huang.

Photo by James Huang.

Photo by James Huang.

Photo by James Huang.

Photo by efdixon.

Photo by efdixon.

Photo by Crescent Zhang.

Photo by Crescent Zhang.

Photo by Crescent Zhang.

Photo by James Huang.

Photo by Crescent Zhang.

Photo by Crescent Zhang.

Photo by James Huang.

 

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Exposed ´´US War with North Korea Is No Joke At All`

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War with North Korea: No Joke By John Stanton The 20th Century Korean War from 1950-1953 pitting US-led United Nations coalition forces against the North Korean and Chinese militaries has been in pause mode for 64 years. The Korean Armistice was signed on July 27, 1953 by the United States, China and North Korea. It called for a cessation of hostilities until a lasting peace agreement between the warring parties could be negotiated and signed. That, of course, has not happened due as much to North Korea’s rationally maniacal behavior and ruthless treatment of its citizens, as to its role as a useful pawn of the Chinese and American governments. The Chinese feel compelled to let the incendiary North Korean government in Pyongyang irritate and provoke the United States and much of the world community, and the Americans don’t mind having a large military presence to deter North Korea but also to keep an eye on the China and the Southeast Asian region. China has apparently reinforced its military forces on its border with North Korea. Russia has a short land and maritime border with North Korea. In 2015 officials from the two countries signed an agreement to construct a road connection between the two neighbors during their “Year of Friendship.” According to NK.News.org, North Korea and Russia envisioned “closer collaboration between the two states in political, economic and humanitarian spheres.” As tensions ratchet up in the wake of North Korea’s nuclear weapons and ballistic missile tests, Russia has apparently shored up its military forces near the bustling Russian port city of Vladivostok, home to Russia’s Pacific Fleet and within range of North Korean missiles. US-Led Coalition These military moves by China and Russia make sense if war breaks out between a US-led coalition including South Korea, Japan, Canada, and Australia (for starters) and North Korean forces. The extra forces would likely be used to stanch the tide of North Koreans expected to stream out of North Korea. In the unfortunate circumstance that sees North Korea’s first use of a nuclear weapon, a US retaliatory strike would ensure that the radiologically damaged would seek care in China and Russia, care that China and Russia can ill-afford to provide on a large scale. During a protracted conventional conflict, it seems likely that enterprising organizations in China and Russia would attempt to funnel weapons and aid to the North Koreans to keep the US-led coalition occupied while they ponder their strategic and tactical options. With the US bogged down in Iraq, Syria and Afghanistan, there are many moves that the Chinese and Russians could make contrary to US interests. The political and pundit classes in New York City and Washington, DC believe that the Trump Administration will just kick the Kim Jong-Un tin can down the road for another US president. The same elites told us all that Hillary Clinton would, with great certainty, win the 2016 presidential election. After 100 days of the Trump presidency, they still shake their heads in disbelief. Yet, they seemed to believe fully in President Trump’s punitive April cruise missile strikes in Syria undertaken after a Bashar Al Assad use of a nerve agent on his own citizens. But Trump’s people say that the time for “strategic patience” with North Korea is over. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, the Perry Como of the US State Department, declared as much during a recent visit to South Korea. Has America’s new Ken and Barbie, Jared Kushner and Ivanka Trump, been advising President Trump on the matter? As for China’s influence, it has warned North Korea not to test Trump even as it recently resumed flights to North Korea from Beijing. Time will tell if China is serious in assisting the US or not. Intellectuals? Beyond the political and pundit classes who grace the world with their intellectual acumen are those across the spectrum who think that North Korea is the way it is because of the policies and practices of the US government. Those outlandish claims should not be seriously entertained. Kim Jong-Un is seen in this video smoking a cigarette and, at one point, sitting at a desk not far from an aircraft runway watching his air force and army in action. It looks a lot like a Monty Python skit until you realize that the North Koreans really believe they are a competent military power. And then there is the North Korean Army’s recent live fire exercise. What kind of commanders and political leaders think that the alignment of this artillery on a beach? The commanders are essentially giving their troops a death sentence as US standoff weapons systems would mostly obliterate such massed artillery. North Korean military doctrine is as obsolete as much of its weaponry is. Still, war is horrible and North Korea would, initially, likely cause a lot of pain to the northern portions of Seoul, South Korea. US, South and North Korean civilian casualties would certainly follow. Pain reduction, not elimination, depends on the lethality of US preemptive missile, bomber and cyber-attacks designed to neutralize what the US-led coalition’s intelligence believes to be the targets most important to hit first. Most likely, both North Korean nuclear weapons testing and medium-long range missile sites would be targeted, simultaneously with other North Korean conventional military assets. Before such a conflict de-confliction lines with China and Russia would have to be opened. The Fight North Korea has to know that if it moves any weapons systems into the open, the heat or electronic emissions will get them killed. US intelligence services have tried hard to anticipate how quickly the North Koreans can load and reload artillery and the extent of their ammunition supplies. Then there are the diesel submarines North Korea has in operation. US military antisubmarine warfare aircraft and detection is the best in the world and the Navy would be quick to begin the search for North Korean submarines. US attack class submarines would have to eliminate the DPRK’s undersea threat very quickly, just as US air forces would be called upon to clear the airspace above North Korea as rapidly as possible. North Korean surface vessels would not do well against US anti-ship weaponry with its advanced guidance systems. On the ground and from the sea, the situation is less clear. North Korea is vulnerable to amphibious landings on both its coastlines on the Yellow Sea and the Sea of Japan. The US Navy and Marine Corps would not attempt such landings until many days into a conflict though. North Korea is said to have sleeper cells in South Korea that would be activated to destroy key communications nodes and other critical infrastructure. North Korean Special Forces are said to be a dangerous threat as in any conflict they would be tasked with infiltrating South Korea to engage in sabotage. It is not known how the North Korean civilian population would respond to an attack. The nation is home to 25 million people who have mostly known nothing but privation and austerity. Of course, that’s the view from the outside. There are tantalizing hints that the civilians there might stay away from the fighting to a limited degree. Books smuggled out of North Korea like The Accusation give a hint of some of the thinking of the well-educated and economically better positioned denizens. But the US experience with insurgencies from Vietnam until the present have not been pleasant, successful affairs. At any rate, the “will” of the North Korean population would play a significant role in a protracted conflict. Some argue that the US should learn from its 20th Century Korean War experience. But comparisons are invalid. The conflict took place as the US was drawing down from World War II and cold political winds were blowing. Since that time the North Koreans have spent a lot of time training to fight but have not been engaged in protracted conflicts for the last two decades as the US has been. There is no substitute for training but when military forces have experience in combat operations and maintain a training regime there is going to be a mismatch at some point favoring the US. Yet another consideration is the Joint Force capabilities of the North Korean military versus the UScoalition interoperability and joint force training. There is no evidence to suggest that North Korea has “networked” its fighting forces to wage war in the cross domains of sea, undersea, land, air, space and cyber. Nor has North Korea conducted extensive training exercises with partner or allies equivalent to Canada, Australia, Japan and South Korea. No One Knows and that Unfinished Business Thing A long term conflict in which the US-led coalition fails to bring North Korea to its knees would allow other nations to make risky moves. Would Russia invade Eastern Ukraine and move up to the Dnieper River? Would China move on Taiwan? Would Turkey move further into Syria? Would Iran move further into Syria and Iraq? Would Russia get more aggressive in Libya? Would Europe further splinter as some members of the European Union back the US while others do not (the UK would fight with the US)? Would the American public support a longer term war effort? Unfortunately, the US, North and South Korea issue is unfinished business. Not too many people on the planet want to see a video of the Kim Jong-Un of the future sitting at his portable desk smoking a cigarette while watching the North Korean “Death to America” ICBM successfully launched and carrying a nuke toward the United States. If that ICBM made in through US missile defenses, the United States nuclear retaliatory response would turn North Korea into a radiological waste-land for decades. No one in the world wants to see that happen either. John Stanton can be reached at jstantonarchangel@gmail.com

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North Korea Zionist, North Korea Zionism, North Korea Zombie Apocalypse, North Korean Zoo Dog

Exposed – North Korea Nuclear Test Site

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Exposed – North Korean Hwasong Concentration Camp – Top Secret

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North Korea Hwasong Gulag

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hwasong_concentration_camp

 
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“Kim Jong-un is a puppet” in the eyes of North Korean elite

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As a North Korean (in exile), the recent developments in North Korea that have been communicated by colleagues in the country lead to a conclusion that is shocking for me beyond words can describe. What we all took to be an immutable fact of life in North Korea no longer holds: our country is no longer ruled by a Kim.

The DPRK may tirelessly trumpet its system of ‘absolute guidance’ centred on Kim Jong-un; but I have seen much that suggests otherwise, and have now had it articulated by colleagues in Pyongyang – and nothing could have astonished me more than to hear them put it in their own words – that ‘Kim Jong-un is a puppet who is being controlled by the elite’.

‘This North Korea of today is not the North Korea you used to live in’. On the first occasion I heard those words spoken by a North Korean from inside North Korea, a shiver ran through my body. Colleagues in Pyongyang describe a North Korean state that is being run by several invisible hands.

To put it more specifically, an inner circle of elite, with its focal point in the Organization and Guidance Department (OGD), has now cemented itself as the collective leadership of North Korea. In effect, they have anointed Kim Jong-un as the nominal leader, while they themselves rule from behind in Kim Jong-un’s name.

Kim Jong-un may have wished to rely on Jang Song-thaek for his rule, alongside those others designated by Kim Jong-il as eternally loyal to his legacy. Nevertheless, the OGD was able to isolate and purge Jang Song-thaek; and ultimately, to swiftly execute the ruling Kim’s own uncle.

This inner elite has at its core OGD first deputy directors Kim Kyong-ok, Cho Yon-jun, Hwang Pyong-so, and Ministry of State Security (MSS) director Kim Won-hong. From there outwards, as according to OGD tradition, those who have trusted and close relationships to the centre are entrusted with power throughout different sectors and branches.

It is worth noting that figures such as Choe Ryong-hae and O Geuk-ryol – whose prestige has long been paramount due to their intimate and entangled personal histories with Kim Jong-il’s rise to power – have not been included in this group.

These two men, who held the rare distinction of forming a part of Kim Jong-il’s inner circle in spite of their close associations with Kim Il-sung’s heritage of anti-Japanese resistance, have been excluded from the power consolidation of the OGD in the Kim Jong-un era.

Similarly, the DPRK may be placing great emphasis on the motif of the ‘Paekdu bloodline’ in an attempt to symbolise the hereditary legitimacy of Kim Jong-un without drawing too much attention to the motif of the ‘anti-Japanese bloodline’.

The overall picture is that in the wake of Jang Song-thaek’s purge, the configuration of power in North Korea – which had been in a state of factional fragmentation – is being systemically overhauled with the OGD as pivot.

Ri Yong-nam, who is the son of deceased OGD first deputy director Ri Jae-gang and served as the party secretary of the North Korean embassy in Moscow, has been recalled to Pyongyang. It is thought that he will follow in the family line and take on significant responsibilities in the OGD.

Pak Tae-song and Ri Jong-chan, who were very close to OGD first deputy director Kim Kyong-ok in the days of Ri Jae-gang’s leadership of the OGD, may join Ri Yong-nam in similar roles.

Pushed to the periphery of power by Jang Song-thaek, Pak Tae-song and Ri Jong-chan had served in sectors related to economic policy. But with Jang Song-thaek gone, the two men have gained much standing.

The family line of Ri Yong-chol, who served as OGD first deputy director for military affairs, has also been elevated with the purge of Jang Song-thaek. Ri Yong-chol’s son is dead, but his daughter Ri Yong-ran has resigned from her role at a foreign trade company and is preparing for a Party leadership role.

Relatives of Cho Yon-jun and Hwang Pyong-so have found themselves in similarly advantageous positions. The children of OGD leadership families and of those closest to them are likely to receive relevant appointments at the next session of the Supreme People’s Assembly.

It is due to the significant clout of this collective inner elite that cadres are not behaving with due conformity in Kim Jong-un’s presence. Not only is state television showing Kim Jong-un in situations that are not perfectly composed, the elite are actually said to be taking pride at this erosion of the centrality of the ruling Kim’s authority.

Kim Jong-un’s revealing of personal information related to the Kim family to Rodman on his first visit to the country was allegedly used as an excuse to delay Rodman’s next visit, and to limit Kim Jong-un’s subsequent interactions with Rodman; ‘suggestions’ to Kim Jong-un made by the OGD are much more than that, with even propaganda relating to the ‘absolute guidance’ of Kim Jong-un serving a rule-by-terror led by the OGD.

The atmosphere is such that of the many Party Committees nationwide, not many would dare take initiative on a project without first obtaining explicit authorization from an OGD ‘guidance’ branch. First party secretaries, who represent the Party at institutional levels but must still receive ‘guidance’ from an organizational secretary at the lowest Party cell level to which they belong, are said to be under heightened mutual surveillance.

Alongside this development, the Ministry of State Security has seen its influence rise to the extent that it can order an arrest for the smallest mistakes on the ironic charge of ‘Kim Jong-un’s absolute guidance having been infringed’.

Moreover, cadres are now offering bows to a right-angle – previously reserved exclusively for Kim Il-sung and Kim Jong-il – to those holding the rank of supervisor or above in the OGD. This is a development of utmost significance: anyone receiving such a bow during Kim Jong-il’s rule would have been reported and purged immediately for the corruption of ‘individualism’; and this development has not gone unnoticed by those in Pyongyang.

The OGD is putting constant emphasis on the ‘side-branch’ notion in propaganda alongside the message of the ‘absolute guidance’ of Kim Jong-un. And the argument is that ‘side-branch’ Jang Song-thaek committed an anti-Party and anti-revolutionary crime because he was not pruned, and thus able to take advantage of Kim Jong-il’s magnanimity.

But with many in North Korea still unaware that Kim Jong-un has an older brother, the question is frequently heard regarding who this side-branch might be, with Jang Song-thaek already dead. Within the OGD, the ‘side-branch’ designation has as its internal referents Kim Jong-chol and Ri Sol-ju, with the PAD prohibited from promoting Ri Sol-ju as the ‘mother of Chosun’.

The following is a summary of what North Korea’s senior cadres are saying discreetly among themselves with regard to Jang Song-thaek’s execution:

[Right up to the enlarged Politburo meeting that criticised Jang Song-thaek, focused criticisms of Jang Song-thaek were conducted in the manner of ideological debates, and dealt only with ‘proofs of Jang Song-thaek’s deviation from absolute guidance and of his factional acts’; but in the Politburo verdict released in Rodong Sinmun on the following day, the charge of an ‘anti-Party and anti-revolutionary act’ was added; the MSS instigated severe interrogations based on this ‘evidence’, in which Jang Song-thaek apparently confessed of his plot to assassinate Kim Jong-un; Jang Song-thaek pleaded to meet with Kim Jong-un in person in order to conduct self-criticism, but Kim Jong-un ordered for Jang Song-thaek to be sent to a political prison camp on seeing the video of Jang’s statement; at which point cadres unanimously invoked for the ‘Supreme Leader’s absolute guidance’ to be upheld and Jang Song-thaek was swiftly executed.]

At the moment, all policy proposals by Party, military or government institutions are being routed through the OGD just as in the past. But whereas previously it was the proposal alone that was sent through the OGD, now the author of the proposal is required to visit the OGD building in person and make an argument for their case. Central Party Headquarters No.1, where the OGD is headquartered, is seeing a constant stream of cadres competing with one another for an audience with the OGD leadership.

Jang Jin-sung

Unveiled – DoD Report to Congress on North Korea Military and Security Developments

DoD-DPRK-2012-1

Military and Security Developments Involving the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea 2012

26 pages
May 2, 2013

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The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) remains one of the United States’ most critical security challenges in Northeast Asia. North Korea remains a security threat because of its willingness to undertake provocative and destabilizing behavior, including attacks on the Republic of Korea (ROK), its pursuit of nuclear weapons and long-range ballistic missiles, and its willingness to proliferate weapons in contravention of its international agreements and United Nations Security Council Resolutions.

North Korean aspiration for reunification – attainable in its mind in part by expelling U.S. forces from the Peninsula – and its commitment to perpetuating the Kim family regime are largely unchanged since the nation’s founding in 1948, but its strategies to achieve these goals have evolved significantly. Under Kim Jong Il, DPRK strategy had been focused on internal security; coercive diplomacy to compel acceptance of its diplomatic, economic and security interests; development of strategic military capabilities to deter external attack; and challenging the ROK and the U.S.-ROK Alliance. We anticipate these strategic goals will be consistent under North Korea’s new leader, Kim Jong Un.

North Korea fields a large, forward-deployed military that retains the capability to inflict serious damage on the ROK, despite significant resource shortfalls and aging hardware. The DPRK continues to be deterred from conducting attacks on the ROK largely because of the strength of the U.S.-ROK Alliance. On a smaller scale, however, the DPRK has demonstrated its willingness to use military provocation to achieve national goals, such as in 2010 when it sank the ROK naval vessel CHEONAN, killing 46 ROK Navy sailors, and shelled Yeonpyeong Island, killing two ROK Marines and two civilians.

North Korea’s continued pursuit of nuclear technology and capabilities and development of long-range ballistic missile programs, as reflected in the December 2012 Taepo Dong 2 missile launch and April 2012 display of a new road-mobile intercontinental ballistic missile, underscores the threat to regional stability and U.S. national security posed by North Korea. These programs, as well as North Korea’s expressed hostility toward the ROK and proliferation of items prohibited under United Nations Security Council Resolutions 1718, 1874, and 2087 make the DPRK a continued security challenge for the United States and its Allies and partners.

North Korea’s third nuclear test in February 2013 and its 2010 revelation of a uranium enrichment facility highlight the continued challenge posed by North Korea’s nuclear programs. Both the September 19 Joint Statement of the Six Party Talks and United Nations Security Council Resolutions 1718, 1874, and 2087 call for the complete and verifiable denuclearization of North Korea. Given North Korea’s unwillingness to abide by these commitments, the Department of Defense will continue to manage the North Korean security challenge through close coordination and consultation with the international community, particularly with our ROK and Japanese Allies.

The United States remains vigilant in the face of North Korea’s continued provocations and steadfast in commitments to Allies in the region, including the security provided by extended deterrence commitments through both the nuclear umbrella and conventional forces.

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KEY DEVELOPMENTS IN NORTH KOREAN AND PENINSULAR SECURITY

The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK or North Korea) has stated that it is entering what it calls “the door in a strong and prosperous nation” in 2012. The transfer of power to Kim Jong Un, after the death of Kim Jong Il in December 2011, has shaped the internal political landscape of North Korea and its international relations. In April 2012, Kim Jong Un assumed top-level positions in the Korean Worker’s Party (KWP) and the National Defense Commission, formalizing his role as the North’s top leader.

Yet North Korea continues to fall behind the rising national power of its regional neighbors, creating a widening military disparity and fueling its commitment to improving asymmetric and strategic deterrent capabilities as the primary guarantor of regime survival.

Tensions on the Korean Peninsula have grown as relations between the DPRK and the Republic of Korea (ROK) worsened through 2011 and remained uneasy through mid-2012. The DPRK’s frustration with the ROK’s close policy coordination with the United States and its linkage of assistance to the North to progress in denuclearization grew over the past five years of President Lee Myung-bak, and is unlikely to change significantly under the tenure of President Park Geun-hye.

NORTH KOREAN SECURITY PERCEPTIONS

North Korean threat perceptions are shaped by a legacy of guerilla warfare dating back to its anti–colonial struggle against the Japanese, political and economic isolation, experience during wartime, and a political culture that is defined by an unending existential struggle with outside forces. North Korea has portrayed the ROK and the United States as constant threats to North Korea’s sovereignty, in a probable attempt to legitimize and justify the Kim family rule, its draconian internal control mechanisms, and its existing strategies as the best defense against encroachments on the North’s sovereignty.

The regime’s greatest security concern is opposition from within, and outside forces – primarily South Korea – taking advantage of internal instability to topple the regime and achieve unification of the Korean Peninsula. In North Korea’s view, the destruction of regimes such as Ceausescu, Hussain, and Qadhafi was not an inevitable consequence of repressive governments, but rather a failure to secure the necessary capabilities to defend their respective autocratic regime’s survival.

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