Tag: Middle East Crisis

Iran Threatens to Strike U.S. Military Targets in Europe if Trump Escalates War

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Iran is actively planning to strike U.S. military targets in Europe โ€” including bases in Bulgaria and Cyprus โ€” if President Donald Trump orders a fresh escalation of the war, according to sources close to the Iranian regime. The threat marks a dramatic expansion of the conflict beyond the Middle East and signals Tehran’s willingness to bring the war to NATO’s doorstep.

The Threat

Iranian military planners have examined potential targets at American military facilities in southeastern Europe, including Bulgaria, according to a report by the Financial Times. The assessment follows Bulgaria’s decision last month to allow U.S. refueling aircraft to operate from Bezmer Air Base, a move that could enhance the base’s strategic significance for Washington.

“Iranian forces have evaluated the option of striking U.S. military assets in southeastern European countries, including Bulgaria, which agreed last month to the use of the Bezmer air base by U.S. aircraft for refueling purposes.”
โ€” Financial Times, citing sources close to the Iranian regime

Cyprus has also been identified as a possible target. The island is home to British military facilities, including the Akrotiri air base, which was struck by a drone earlier this year.

The Undersea Cable Threat

In addition to military targets, Iranian forces have separately assessed the possibility of striking undersea fiber-optic cables passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Any such disruption could affect key communications infrastructure running through the strategically vital waterway.

“Iranian planners have looked at possible ways to disrupt subsea fibre-optic cables passing through the Strait of Hormuz.”
โ€” Financial Times report

The Escalation Calculus

The reported contingency planning reflects Tehran’s efforts to assess how it could raise the costs for Washington if the conflict widens.

Key factors driving the threat:

ยท The 60-day talk window between the U.S. and Iran ended without any breakthrough under the Islamabad MoU
ยท Trump declared that no “talks or conversations” are underway or planned with Tehran
ยท Iran’s Supreme Leader has promoted hardliners to top security and military positions, signaling a shift toward a more confrontational posture

“If the United States were to strike Iranian infrastructure, Tehran could expand its operations beyond the Middle East. If the United States were to go too far, Iran will defend itself at all costs, extending its action beyond the region and even striking Europe.”
โ€” Source close to the Iranian regime

The “Madness” Gambit

Iranian sources have conveyed a blunt message to Washington: “Don’t play a game of madness with us, because we are crazier.”

One source warned that Tehran’s response would be “without any limits”. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has already warned the United Kingdom that “any base used to launch an attack on Iranian territory will be considered a legitimate target”.

In July, Iran attacked a U.S. base in Jordan, killing three U.S. service members. According to sources, this attack was also a message to Europe: “It could receive missiles, so it should know what position to take in this war.”

The Military Reality

While the threat is serious, experts caution that Iran’s ability to strike European targets is limited.

Sidharth Kaushal, a researcher at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) in London, told the Financial Times that the threat posed by Iranian missiles against European targets is “real, but limited”. Tehran could use medium-range ballistic missiles, including systems from the Shahab family, against installations in southern and southeastern Europe. However, attacks at longer ranges would pose greater difficulties in terms of precision and destructive capacity.

Iran has already attempted to demonstrate its long-range strike capabilities: in the weeks following the outbreak of the war in February, Washington accused Tehran of launching missiles against the Anglo-American base on Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean, none of which hit their target. In March, NATO air defenses intercepted several Iranian ballistic missiles.

The Bottom Line

Iran is preparing options to broaden the conflict if Trump acts on earlier threats to strike Iranian infrastructure. The reported planning to strike U.S. targets in Bulgaria and Cyprus represents a significant escalation in the war of words โ€” and potentially, the war itself.

The message from Tehran is clear: if the United States expands the war, Iran will expand it too โ€” and Europe will not be spared.

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Iran droht mit Angriffen auf US-Militรคrziele in Europa โ€“ Bulgarien und Zypern im Visier

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Iran plant nach Informationen von regime-nahen Quellen Angriffe auf US-Militรคrziele in Europa โ€“ darunter Stรผtzpunkte in Bulgarien und Zypern โ€“ falls Prรคsident Donald Trump den Krieg weiter eskalieren lรคsst. Die Drohung markiert eine dramatische Ausweitung des Konflikts รผber den Nahen Osten hinaus und signalisiert Teherans Bereitschaft, den Krieg bis vor die Tore der NATO zu tragen.

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Die Drohung

Iranische Militรคrplaner haben mรถgliche Ziele an US-Militรคreinrichtungen in Sรผdosteuropa geprรผft, darunter in Bulgarien, wie die Financial Times berichtet. Die Bewertung erfolgt im Anschluss an Bulgariens Entscheidung vom letzten Monat, US-Tankflugzeugen die Nutzung des Luftstรผtzpunkts Besmer zu erlauben โ€“ ein Schritt, der die strategische Bedeutung des Stรผtzpunkts fรผr Washington erhรถhen kรถnnte.

“Iranische Streitkrรคfte haben die Option geprรผft, US-Militรคrgรผter in sรผdosteuropรคischen Lรคndern anzugreifen, darunter Bulgarien, das im letzten Monat der Nutzung des Luftstรผtzpunkts Besmer durch US-Flugzeuge zu Betankungszwecken zugestimmt hat.”
โ€” Financial Times unter Berufung auf regime-nahe Quellen

Auch Zypern wurde als mรถgliches Ziel identifiziert. Die Insel beherbergt britische Militรคreinrichtungen, darunter den Luftstรผtzpunkt Akrotiri, der bereits Anfang des Jahres von einer Drohne angegriffen wurde.

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Die Bedrohung von Unterseekabeln

Neben militรคrischen Zielen haben iranische Streitkrรคfte separat die Mรถglichkeit geprรผft, Unterseeglasfaserkabel anzugreifen, die durch die StraรŸe von Hormus verlaufen. Jede solche Stรถrung kรถnnte die wichtige Kommunikationsinfrastruktur beeintrรคchtigen, die durch die strategisch lebenswichtige WasserstraรŸe verlรคuft.

“Iranische Planer haben mรถgliche Wege geprรผft, um Unterseeglasfaserkabel zu stรถren, die durch die StraรŸe von Hormus verlaufen.”
โ€” Financial Times

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Die Eskalationslogik

Die berichtete Notfallplanung spiegelt Teherans Bemรผhungen wider, zu bewerten, wie es die Kosten fรผr Washington erhรถhen kรถnnte, falls der Konflikt weiter eskaliert.

Schlรผsselfaktoren, die die Drohung antreiben:

ยท Das 60-tรคgige Gesprรคchsfenster zwischen den USA und dem Iran endete ohne Durchbruch im Rahmen des Islamabad-MoU
ยท Trump erklรคrte, dass derzeit keine “Gesprรคche oder Unterhaltungen” mit Teheran stattfinden oder geplant seien
ยท Irans oberster Fรผhrer hat Hardliner in die obersten Sicherheits- und Militรคrpositionen berufen, was eine Hinwendung zu einer konfrontativeren Haltung signalisiert

“Wenn die Vereinigten Staaten iranische Infrastruktur angreifen wรผrden, kรถnnte Teheran seine Operationen รผber den Nahen Osten hinaus ausweiten. Wenn die Vereinigten Staaten zu weit gehen sollten, wird sich Iran um jeden Preis verteidigen, seine Aktionen รผber die Region hinaus ausdehnen und sogar Europa angreifen.”
โ€” Quelle aus regime-nahen Kreisen

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Die “Wahnsinns”-Strategie

Iranische Quellen haben Washington eine unmissverstรคndliche Botschaft รผbermittelt: “Spielen Sie kein Wahnsinnsspiel mit uns, denn wir sind verrรผckter.”

Eine Quelle warnte, dass Teherans Antwort “ohne jede Grenze” sein werde. Die Islamischen Revolutionsgarden (IRGC) haben GroรŸbritannien bereits gewarnt, dass “jeder Stรผtzpunkt, der fรผr einen Angriff auf iranisches Territorium genutzt wird, als legitimes Ziel betrachtet wird”.

Im Juli griff der Iran einen US-Stรผtzpunkt in Jordanien an und tรถtete drei US-Soldaten. Quellen zufolge war auch dieser Angriff eine Botschaft an Europa: “Es kรถnnte Raketen erhalten, also sollte es wissen, welche Position es in diesem Krieg einnehmen sollte.”

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Die militรคrische Realitรคt

So ernst die Bedrohung ist, warnen Experten, dass Irans Fรคhigkeit, europรคische Ziele anzugreifen, begrenzt ist.

Sidharth Kaushal, Forscher am Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) in London, sagte der Financial Times, dass die Bedrohung durch iranische Raketen gegen europรคische Ziele “real, aber begrenzt” sei. Teheran kรถnnte Mittelstreckenraketen, einschlieรŸlich Systeme der Shahab-Familie, gegen Einrichtungen in Sรผd- und Sรผdosteuropa einsetzen. Angriffe รผber grรถรŸere Entfernungen wรผrden jedoch grรถรŸere Schwierigkeiten in Bezug auf Prรคzision und Zerstรถrungskraft mit sich bringen.

Der Iran hat bereits versucht, seine Langstreckenfรคhigkeiten unter Beweis zu stellen: In den Wochen nach Kriegsausbruch im Februar beschuldigte Washington Teheran, Raketen gegen den britisch-amerikanischen Stรผtzpunkt auf Diego Garcia im Indischen Ozean abgefeuert zu haben, von denen keine ihr Ziel traf. Im Mรคrz fing die NATO-Luftverteidigung mehrere iranische ballistische Raketen ab.

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Die Bilanz

Der Iran bereitet Optionen vor, den Konflikt auszuweiten, falls Trump auf frรผhere Drohungen reagiert, iranische Infrastruktur anzugreifen. Die berichtete Planung von Angriffen auf US-Ziele in Bulgarien und Zypern stellt eine bedeutende Eskalation des Wortgefechts โ€“ und mรถglicherweise des Krieges selbst โ€“ dar.

Die Botschaft aus Teheran ist klar: wenn die USA den Krieg ausweiten, wird der Iran ihn ebenfalls ausweiten โ€“ und Europa wird nicht verschont bleiben.

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Trump Threatens to “Bomb the S*** Out of” Oman as Middle East Crisis Spins Out of Control

Oil prices surge past $91 a barrel, Trump’s approval plummets to 33%, and Iran shifts to a “fully offensive” military posture as diplomatic efforts collapse on multiple fronts.

The Middle East is teetering on the brink of a catastrophic wider war. In a single 24-hour period, President Donald Trump threatened to bomb a key U.S. ally, Iran announced a dramatic military escalation, and Jared Kushner’s high-stakes Gaza diplomacy reached a critical crossroadsโ€”while global oil markets braced for prices that could soar past $120 a barrel.

Trump’s Bombshell Threat to Oman

In an explosive interview with Fox News correspondent Trey Yingst, President Trump issued a stark warning to Oman, a long-standing U.S. security partner in the Gulf.

“If Oman gets in the way, we’ll bomb the s** out of them,”* Trump declared, referring to ongoing talks between Oman and Iran over control of the Strait of Hormuz.

The threat came as Iranian and Omani officials have been negotiating for weeks on future maritime navigation arrangements through the strategic waterway. The two sides were reportedly working toward a joint declaration on managing the strait, which Tehran effectively closed on February 28 at the start of the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran.

Trump, however, has repeatedly asserted that the United States has control over the straitโ€”despite Iran continuing to restrict shipping traffic through the vital maritime route. On Friday, the president went further, suggesting he could declare the Strait of Hormuz U.S. territory. Iran swiftly rejected the claim, insisting the waterway “will remain Iranian.”

“Iran should put up the white flag of surrender,” Trump told Yingst, while also revealing that his administration has a direct back-channel with Iran’s Revolutionary Guard.

The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most critical energy corridors, carrying a substantial share of global oil shipments. Iran’s effective control over the waterway has become a major source of leverage against Washington. Trump insisted he was in no hurry to reach a deal, despite the deep unpopularity of the war among Americans ahead of November’s midterm elections.

Iran’s “Fully Offensive” Military Shift

As peace talks with the U.S. stall, Iran has announced a major escalation in its military posture. A senior Iranian official told Reuters that Tehran will shift to a “fully offensive” military stance as efforts to negotiate a permanent end to the war have stalled.

IRGC Political Deputy Brigadier General Yadollah Javani told Iranian state media that Iran’s actions so far had been defensive but could assume an offensive character in the future.

“The enemy has been the initiator of the war, and Iran’s actions are defensive, but they may take on an offensive aspect in the future,” Javani said, adding that the armed forces would adopt “transformative approaches” and take any necessary action at the appropriate time.

The shift comes as a 60-day memorandum of understanding signed on June 17โ€”which was supposed to lead to a final peace dealโ€”has effectively collapsed. The MoU, which declared the immediate cessation of military operations, quickly unraveled due to a dispute over control of the Strait of Hormuz. Trump declared the pact “over” on July 7.

Iran has set a deadline for the U.S. to implement all provisions of the agreement, warning that mediators would share Tehran’s deadline with Washington and regional states.

“Iranian entities must be prepared to escalate tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and wider region,” the Iranian official said, adding that Tehran would conduct a “timely and precise” military attack to break the U.S. naval blockade if diplomacy failed.

Kushner’s High-Stakes Gaza Diplomacy

Amid the escalating crisis with Iran, Jared Kushner is in Israel for critical negotiations on Gaza. The White House envoy met with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on August 18 as the two sides work to bridge significant gaps in a proposed peace framework.

Kushner also met with President Isaac Herzog and envoy Nickolay Mladenov, with Herzog stressing that “Israel’s security and its citizens must remain central” in any agreement.

Key Agreement: U.S. General to Oversee Hamas Disarmament

In a significant breakthrough, Netanyahu and Kushner have reportedly agreed to put a U.S. general in charge of supervising Hamas’ disarmament in Gaza. However, this is part of a broader, unresolved dispute over the timeline and nature of an Israeli withdrawal.

Netanyahu has insisted that Israeli forces will not withdraw from Gaza until Hamas is fully disarmedโ€”a position that has created tensions with the Trump administration’s push for a phased peace process. The agreement to place a U.S. general in charge of disarmament represents a potential compromise, but the fundamental disagreement over withdrawal timing remains unresolved.

Global Oil Markets on Edge

The escalating crisis is having an immediate and dramatic impact on global energy markets. Brent crude futures surged past $91 a barrel on Tuesday, August 18, as peace hopes faded.

Key price movements:

ยท Brent crude: $91.26 a barrel (+0.4%)
ยท WTI crude: $85.31 a barrel (+0.6%)

Both benchmarks gained more than 5% last week after attacks on tankers operated by Abu Dhabi National Oil Company in the Strait of Hormuz and an attack on a Saudi Aramco refinery.

The disruption is severe. Ship-tracking data from Kpler showed that only five commodity vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday, with zero transits recorded on Sundayโ€”a sharp decline from the 31 vessel passages logged the prior weekend.

“The dual chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb remains highly significant. These are not secondary concerns. They sit at the centre of the current supply-risk narrative.”
โ€” Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM

Worse may be coming. JPMorgan estimates that every additional month of disruption could add $7 to $8 a barrel to Brent prices. If the disruption lasts for three months, the bank expects average monthly Brent prices to reach around $114 a barrel**. Goldman Sachs has warned that Brent could rise to **$120 a barrel if shipping disruptions continue.

Trump’s Approval Hits All-Time Low

Amidst these growing foreign policy crises, President Trump faces a significant domestic political challenge. His approval rating has reportedly hit an all-time low of 33%, with fears mounting that the U.S. war with Iran could drag on for months, becoming a major liability for his administration.

The war’s unpopularity is a growing concern for Republicans ahead of November’s midterm elections, with opposition Democrats seeking to take control of Congress. Despite this, Trump insisted he was “not under pressure” to conclude an agreement with Tehran.

The Bigger Picture: A Region on the Brink

These six developments are not isolated eventsโ€”they are pieces of a single, interconnected crisis. The collapse of peace talks with Iran, the threat to bomb a U.S. ally, the military escalation, and the diplomatic maneuvering in Gaza are all part of a broader struggle for control of the Middle East.

Crisis Key Development Consequence
Iran Crisis Iran shifts to “fully offensive” military posture War escalation, global oil supply fears
Strait of Hormuz Trump threatens to bomb Oman over Iran deal Oil prices surge past $91, risk of $120/barrel
Gaza Diplomacy Kushner and Netanyahu agree on U.S. general to oversee Hamas disarmament Potential breakthrough, but Israeli withdrawal remains unresolved
Trump’s Woes Approval rating hits all-time low of 33% Mounting political pressure to end the war

The coming days will be critical. The expiration of the 60-day MoU, Iran’s aggressive military posture, and Trump’s bellicose rhetoric suggest that the region is moving toward a major escalation rather than de-escalation. Whether Kushner’s shuttle diplomacy can salvage a deal in Gaza remains uncertainโ€”but the broader Middle East is rapidly spinning out of control.

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Trump droht Oman mit “Bombardierung bis aufs Blut” โ€“ Nahost-Krise auรŸer Kontrolle

ร–lpreis steigt รผber 91 Dollar pro Barrel, Trumps Zustimmung fรคllt auf 33 %, und Iran wechselt zu “vollstรคndig offensiver” Militรคrdoktrin, wรคhrend diplomatische Bemรผhungen an mehreren Fronten scheitern.

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Der Nahe Osten steht am Rande eines verheerenden Flรคchenbrandes. Innerhalb von nur 24 Stunden drohte Prรคsident Donald Trump einem wichtigen US-Verbรผndeten mit Bombardierung, Iran kรผndigte eine dramatische militรคrische Eskalation an, und Jared Kushners Gaza-Diplomatie erreichte einen kritischen Wendepunkt โ€“ wรคhrend die globalen ร–lmรคrkte auf Preise von รผber 120 Dollar pro Barrel zusteuern.

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Trumps explosive Drohung gegen Oman

In einem explosiven Interview mit Fox-News-Korrespondent Trey Yingst richtete Prรคsident Trump eine scharfe Warnung an Oman, einen langjรคhrigen Sicherheitspartner der USA am Golf.

“Wenn Oman sich in den Weg stellt, werden wir sie bis aufs Blut bombardieren”, erklรคrte Trump mit Blick auf die laufenden Gesprรคche zwischen Oman und Iran รผber die Kontrolle der StraรŸe von Hormus.

Die Drohung erfolgte, wรคhrend iranische und omanische Beamte seit Wochen รผber kรผnftige Seeverkehrsregelungen durch die strategische WasserstraรŸe verhandeln. Beide Seiten arbeiteten an einer gemeinsamen Erklรคrung zur Verwaltung der Meerenge, die Teheran am 28. Februar zu Beginn des US-israelischen Krieges gegen Iran faktisch geschlossen hatte.

Trump hat jedoch wiederholt behauptet, dass die USA die Kontrolle รผber die Meerenge hรคtten โ€“ obwohl Iran den Schiffsverkehr durch die lebenswichtige WasserstraรŸe weiterhin einschrรคnkt. Am Freitag ging der Prรคsident noch weiter und deutete an, dass er die StraรŸe von Hormus zum US-Territorium erklรคren kรถnnte. Iran wies die Behauptung umgehend zurรผck und bestand darauf, dass die WasserstraรŸe “iranisch bleiben werde”.

“Iran sollte die weiรŸe Flagge der Kapitulation hissen”, sagte Trump zu Yingst und enthรผllte zugleich, dass seine Administration einen direkten Kanal zur iranischen Revolutionsgarde unterhalte.

Die StraรŸe von Hormus ist einer der wichtigsten Energiekorridore der Welt und befรถrdert einen erheblichen Teil der globalen ร–llieferungen. Die effektive Kontrolle Irans รผber die WasserstraรŸe ist zu einer wichtigen Druckquelle gegen Washington geworden. Trump betonte, dass er es nicht eilig habe, eine Einigung zu erzielen, trotz der tiefen Unpopularitรคt des Krieges unter den Amerikanern vor den Zwischenwahlen im November.

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Irans “vollstรคndig offensive” Militรคrwende

Da die Friedensgesprรคche mit den USA ins Stocken geraten, hat Iran eine deutliche Eskalation seiner militรคrischen Haltung angekรผndigt. Ein hochrangiger iranischer Beamter sagte gegenรผber Reuters, dass Teheran eine “vollstรคndig offensive” militรคrische Haltung einnehmen werde, da die Bemรผhungen um ein dauerhaftes Kriegsende gescheitert seien.

Der stellvertretende politische Leiter der Revolutionsgarde, Brigadegeneral Yadollah Javani, sagte gegenรผber den iranischen Staatsmedien, dass Irans Handlungen bisher defensiv gewesen seien, aber in Zukunft einen offensiven Charakter annehmen kรถnnten.

“Der Feind war der Initiator des Krieges, und Irans Handlungen sind defensiv, aber sie kรถnnen in Zukunft einen offensiven Charakter annehmen”, sagte Javani und fรผgte hinzu, dass die Streitkrรคfte “transformatorische Ansรคtze” verfolgen und jede notwendige MaรŸnahme zum richtigen Zeitpunkt ergreifen wรผrden.

Die Wende erfolgt, wรคhrend ein am 17. Juni unterzeichnetes 60-tรคgiges Memorandum of Understanding, das zu einem endgรผltigen Friedensabkommen fรผhren sollte, faktisch zusammengebrochen ist. Das MoU, das die sofortige Einstellung der militรคrischen Operationen vorsah, scheiterte schnell an einem Streit รผber die Kontrolle der StraรŸe von Hormus. Trump erklรคrte das Abkommen am 7. Juli fรผr “beendet”.

Iran hat den USA eine Frist zur Umsetzung aller Bestimmungen des Abkommens gesetzt und gewarnt, dass die Vermittler die Frist Teherans mit Washington und den regionalen Staaten teilen wรผrden.

“Iranische Einrichtungen mรผssen darauf vorbereitet sein, die Spannungen in der StraรŸe von Hormus und der gesamten Region zu eskalieren”, sagte der iranische Beamte und fรผgte hinzu, dass Teheran einen “rechtzeitigen und prรคzisen” Militรคrschlag zur Durchbrechung der US-Seeblockade durchfรผhren werde, falls die Diplomatie scheitere.

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Kushners Gaza-Diplomatie auf Messers Schneide

Mitten in der eskalierenden Krise mit Iran befindet sich Jared Kushner zu kritischen Verhandlungen รผber Gaza in Israel. Der Gesandte des WeiรŸen Hauses traf sich am 18. August mit Premierminister Benjamin Netanjahu, wรคhrend beide Seiten an der รœberbrรผckung erheblicher Differenzen in einem vorgeschlagenen Friedensrahmen arbeiten.

Kushner traf sich auch mit Prรคsident Isaac Herzog und dem Gesandten Nickolay Mladenov, wobei Herzog betonte, dass “Israels Sicherheit und seine Bรผrger im Mittelpunkt” jeder Vereinbarung stehen mรผssten.

Schlรผsselvereinbarung: US-General soll Hamas-Entwaffnung รผberwachen

In einem bedeutenden Durchbruch haben sich Netanjahu und Kushner darauf geeinigt, einen US-General mit der รœberwachung der Hamas-Entwaffnung in Gaza zu beauftragen. Dies ist jedoch Teil einer breiteren, ungelรถsten Auseinandersetzung รผber den Zeitplan und die Art eines israelischen Rรผckzugs.

Netanjahu hat darauf bestanden, dass sich die israelischen Streitkrรคfte nicht aus Gaza zurรผckziehen werden, bis die Hamas vollstรคndig entwaffnet ist โ€“ eine Position, die Spannungen mit dem Drรคngen der Trump-Administration auf einen schrittweisen Friedensprozess verursacht hat. Die Einigung, einen US-General mit der Entwaffnung zu beauftragen, stellt einen mรถglichen Kompromiss dar, aber die grundlegende Meinungsverschiedenheit รผber den Zeitpunkt des Rรผckzugs bleibt ungelรถst.

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Globale ร–lmรคrkte in Alarmbereitschaft

Die eskalierende Krise hat unmittelbare und dramatische Auswirkungen auf die globalen Energiemรคrkte. Die Brent-Rohรถl-Futures stiegen am Dienstag, dem 18. August, auf รผber 91 Dollar pro Barrel, als die Friedenshoffnungen schwinden.

Wichtige Preisentwicklungen:

ยท Brent: 91,26 Dollar pro Barrel (+0,4 %)
ยท WTI: 85,31 Dollar pro Barrel (+0,6 %)

Beide Referenzsorten gewannen letzte Woche mehr als 5 % nach Angriffen auf von der Abu Dhabi National Oil Company betriebene Tanker in der StraรŸe von Hormus und einem Angriff auf eine Saudi-Aramco-Raffinerie.

Die Unterbrechung ist schwerwiegend. Schiffsverfolgungsdaten von Kpler zeigten, dass am Samstag nur fรผnf Handelsschiffe die StraรŸe von Hormus durchquerten, am Sonntag wurden keine Durchfahrten registriert โ€“ ein starker Rรผckgang gegenรผber den 31 Schiffspassagen am vorherigen Wochenende.

“Der doppelte Engpass in der StraรŸe von Hormus und Bab el-Mandeb bleibt รคuรŸerst bedeutsam. Dies sind keine sekundรคren Bedenken. Sie stehen im Mittelpunkt der aktuellen Versorgungsrisiko-Erzรคhlung.”
โ€” Tim Waterer, Chefmarktanalyst bei KCM

Schlimmer kรถnnte kommen. JPMorgan schรคtzt, dass jeder weitere Monat der Unterbrechung 7 bis 8 Dollar pro Barrel zu den Brent-Preisen hinzufรผgen kรถnnte. Wenn die Unterbrechung drei Monate anhรคlt, erwartet die Bank, dass die monatlichen Durchschnittspreise fรผr Brent bei etwa 114 Dollar pro Barrel liegen werden. Goldman Sachs hat gewarnt, dass Brent auf 120 Dollar pro Barrel steigen kรถnnte, wenn die Schifffahrtsunterbrechungen anhalten.

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Trumps Zustimmung auf Tiefstand

Inmitten dieser wachsenden auรŸenpolitischen Krisen steht Prรคsident Trump vor einer erheblichen innenpolitischen Herausforderung. Sein Zustimmungswert hat mit 33 % einen Allzeittiefstand erreicht, und die Befรผrchtungen wachsen, dass sich der US-Krieg mit Iran รผber Monate hinziehen kรถnnte und damit zu einer groรŸen Belastung fรผr seine Administration wird.

Die Unpopularitรคt des Krieges ist eine wachsende Sorge fรผr die Republikaner vor den Zwischenwahlen im November, bei denen die oppositionellen Demokraten die Kontrolle รผber den Kongress anstreben. Trotzdem betonte Trump, dass er “nicht unter Druck” stehe, eine Einigung mit Teheran zu erzielen.

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Das groรŸe Ganze: Eine Region am Abgrund

Diese sechs Entwicklungen sind keine isolierten Ereignisse โ€“ sie sind Teile einer einzigen, miteinander verbundenen Krise. Der Zusammenbruch der Friedensgesprรคche mit Iran, die Drohung, einen US-Verbรผndeten zu bombardieren, die militรคrische Eskalation und die diplomatischen Manรถver in Gaza sind alle Teil eines breiteren Kampfes um die Kontrolle รผber den Nahen Osten.

Krise Wichtigste Entwicklung Konsequenz
Iran-Krise Iran wechselt zu “vollstรคndig offensiver” Militรคrdoktrin Kriegseskalation, ร„ngste um globale ร–lversorgung
StraรŸe von Hormus Trump droht mit Bombardierung Omans wegen Iran-Abkommen ร–lpreis steigt รผber 91 Dollar, Risiko von 120 Dollar/Barrel
Gaza-Diplomatie Kushner und Netanyahu einigen sich auf US-General zur รœberwachung der Hamas-Entwaffnung Mรถglicher Durchbruch, aber israelischer Rรผckzug bleibt ungeklรคrt
Trumps Probleme Zustimmungswert fรคllt auf Allzeittief von 33 % Wachsender politischer Druck, den Krieg zu beenden

Die kommenden Tage werden entscheidend sein. Der Ablauf des 60-tรคgigen MoU, die aggressive militรคrische Haltung Irans und Trumps kriegerische Rhetorik deuten darauf hin, dass sich die Region eher auf eine groรŸe Eskalation als auf eine Deeskalation zubewegt. Ob Kushners Shuttle-Diplomatie eine Einigung in Gaza retten kann, bleibt ungewiss โ€“ aber der Nahe Osten als Ganzes gerรคt rasant auรŸer Kontrolle.

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Trump amenaza con “bombardear hasta el mismรญsimo infierno” a Omรกn mientras la crisis en Medio Oriente se descontrola

El precio del petrรณleo supera los 91 dรณlares por barril, la aprobaciรณn de Trump cae al 33% e Irรกn adopta una postura militar “completamente ofensiva” mientras los esfuerzos diplomรกticos colapsan en mรบltiples frentes.

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El Medio Oriente estรก al borde de una catastrรณfica guerra a gran escala. En un solo perรญodo de 24 horas, el presidente Donald Trump amenazรณ con bombardear a un aliado clave de EE.UU., Irรกn anunciรณ una dramรกtica escalada militar y la diplomacia de alto riesgo de Jared Kushner en Gaza llegรณ a una encrucijada crรญticaโ€”mientras los mercados petroleros globales se preparan para precios que podrรญan superar los 120 dรณlares por barril.

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La amenaza explosiva de Trump a Omรกn

En una explosiva entrevista con el corresponsal de Fox News Trey Yingst, el presidente Trump emitiรณ una severa advertencia a Omรกn, un socio de seguridad de larga data de EE.UU. en el Golfo.

“Si Omรกn se interpone en el camino, los bombardearรฉ hasta el mismรญsimo infierno”, declarรณ Trump, refiriรฉndose a las conversaciones en curso entre Omรกn e Irรกn sobre el control del Estrecho de Hormuz.

La amenaza se produjo mientras funcionarios iranรญes y omanรญes han estado negociando durante semanas sobre futuros acuerdos de navegaciรณn marรญtima a travรฉs del estratรฉgico estrecho. Ambas partes estaban trabajando en una declaraciรณn conjunta para gestionar el estrecho, que Teherรกn cerrรณ efectivamente el 28 de febrero al inicio de la guerra de EE.UU. e Israel contra Irรกn.

Trump, sin embargo, ha afirmado repetidamente que Estados Unidos tiene el control del estrechoโ€”a pesar de que Irรกn continรบa restringiendo el trรกfico marรญtimo a travรฉs de la vital ruta marรญtima. El viernes, el presidente fue mรกs allรก, sugiriendo que podrรญa declarar el Estrecho de Hormuz territorio estadounidense. Irรกn rechazรณ rรกpidamente la afirmaciรณn, insistiendo en que la vรญa fluvial “seguirรก siendo iranรญ”.

“Irรกn deberรญa izar la bandera blanca de la rendiciรณn”, dijo Trump a Yingst, revelando tambiรฉn que su administraciรณn tiene un canal directo con la Guardia Revolucionaria de Irรกn.

El Estrecho de Hormuz es uno de los corredores energรฉticos mรกs crรญticos del mundo, transportando una parte sustancial de los envรญos de petrรณleo globales. El control efectivo de Irรกn sobre la vรญa fluvial se ha convertido en una importante fuente de influencia contra Washington. Trump insistiรณ en que no tenรญa prisa por llegar a un acuerdo, a pesar de la profunda impopularidad de la guerra entre los estadounidenses de cara a las elecciones de medio mandato de noviembre.

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El cambio militar “completamente ofensivo” de Irรกn

A medida que se estancan las conversaciones de paz con EE.UU., Irรกn ha anunciado una importante escalada en su postura militar. Un alto funcionario iranรญ dijo a Reuters que Teherรกn adoptarรก una postura militar “completamente ofensiva” a medida que los esfuerzos para negociar un fin permanente de la guerra se han estancado.

El General de Brigada Yadollah Javani, subjefe polรญtico de la IRGC, dijo a los medios estatales iranรญes que las acciones de Irรกn hasta ahora habรญan sido defensivas pero podrรญan adoptar un carรกcter ofensivo en el futuro.

“El enemigo ha sido el iniciador de la guerra, y las acciones de Irรกn son defensivas, pero pueden adoptar un aspecto ofensivo en el futuro”, dijo Javani, aรฑadiendo que las fuerzas armadas adoptarรญan “enfoques transformadores” y tomarรญan cualquier acciรณn necesaria en el momento adecuado.

El cambio se produce mientras un memorando de entendimiento de 60 dรญas firmado el 17 de junioโ€”que se suponรญa llevarรญa a un acuerdo de paz finalโ€”ha colapsado efectivamente. El MoU, que declaraba el cese inmediato de las operaciones militares, se deshizo rรกpidamente debido a una disputa sobre el control del Estrecho de Hormuz. Trump declarรณ el pacto “terminado” el 7 de julio.

Irรกn ha fijado un plazo para que EE.UU. implemente todas las disposiciones del acuerdo, advirtiendo que los mediadores compartirรญan el plazo de Teherรกn con Washington y los estados regionales.

“Las entidades iranรญes deben estar preparadas para escalar las tensiones en el Estrecho de Hormuz y la regiรณn en general”, dijo el funcionario iranรญ, aรฑadiendo que Teherรกn llevarรญa a cabo un ataque militar “oportuno y preciso” para romper el bloqueo naval de EE.UU. si la diplomacia fracasaba.

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La diplomacia de alto riesgo de Kushner en Gaza

En medio de la creciente crisis con Irรกn, Jared Kushner se encuentra en Israel para negociaciones crรญticas sobre Gaza. El enviado de la Casa Blanca se reuniรณ con el primer ministro Benjamin Netanyahu el 18 de agosto mientras ambas partes trabajan para cerrar las importantes brechas en un marco de paz propuesto.

Kushner tambiรฉn se reuniรณ con el presidente Isaac Herzog y el enviado Nickolay Mladenov, y Herzog subrayรณ que “la seguridad de Israel y sus ciudadanos deben seguir siendo centrales” en cualquier acuerdo.

Acuerdo clave: General de EE.UU. supervisarรก el desarme de Hamรกs

En un avance significativo, Netanyahu y Kushner han acordado poner a un general de EE.UU. a cargo de supervisar el desarme de Hamรกs en Gaza. Sin embargo, esto es parte de una disputa mรกs amplia y no resuelta sobre el cronograma y la naturaleza de una retirada israelรญ.

Netanyahu ha insistido en que las fuerzas israelรญes no se retirarรกn de Gaza hasta que Hamรกs estรฉ completamente desarmadoโ€”una posiciรณn que ha creado tensiones con el impulso de la administraciรณn Trump para un proceso de paz por fases. El acuerdo de poner a un general estadounidense a cargo del desarme representa un posible compromiso, pero el desacuerdo fundamental sobre el momento de la retirada sigue sin resolverse.

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Los mercados petroleros globales al borde

La crisis en escalada estรก teniendo un impacto inmediato y dramรกtico en los mercados energรฉticos globales. Los futuros del crudo Brent superaron los 91 dรณlares por barril el martes 18 de agosto, a medida que las esperanzas de paz se desvanecรญan.

Movimientos clave de precios:

ยท Brent: 91,26 dรณlares por barril (+0,4%)
ยท WTI: 85,31 dรณlares por barril (+0,6%)

Ambos referencias ganaron mรกs del 5% la semana pasada despuรฉs de ataques a petroleros operados por la Compaรฑรญa Nacional de Petrรณleo de Abu Dhabi en el Estrecho de Hormuz y un ataque a una refinerรญa de Saudi Aramco.

La interrupciรณn es severa. Los datos de seguimiento de barcos de Kpler mostraron que solo cinco buques de carga transitaron el Estrecho de Hormuz el sรกbado, con cero trรกnsitos registrados el domingoโ€”un fuerte descenso en comparaciรณn con los 31 pasajes de buques registrados el fin de semana anterior.

“El doble estrangulamiento en el Estrecho de Hormuz y Bab el-Mandeb sigue siendo muy significativo. Estas no son preocupaciones secundarias. Estรกn en el centro de la narrativa actual de riesgo de suministro.”
โ€” Tim Waterer, analista jefe de mercado de KCM

Podrรญa ser peor. JPMorgan estima que cada mes adicional de interrupciรณn podrรญa aรฑadir entre 7 y 8 dรณlares por barril a los precios del Brent. Si la interrupciรณn dura tres meses, el banco espera que los precios mensuales promedio del Brent alcancen alrededor de 114 dรณlares por barril. Goldman Sachs ha advertido que el Brent podrรญa subir a 120 dรณlares por barril si continรบan las interrupciones en el transporte marรญtimo.

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La aprobaciรณn de Trump alcanza un mรญnimo histรณrico

En medio de estas crecientes crisis de polรญtica exterior, el presidente Trump enfrenta un importante desafรญo polรญtico interno. Su รญndice de aprobaciรณn ha alcanzado un mรญnimo histรณrico del 33%, y crece el temor de que la guerra de EE.UU. con Irรกn podrรญa prolongarse durante meses, convirtiรฉndose en un lastre importante para su administraciรณn.

La impopularidad de la guerra es una preocupaciรณn creciente para los republicanos de cara a las elecciones de medio mandato de noviembre, con la oposiciรณn demรณcrata buscando tomar el control del Congreso. A pesar de esto, Trump insistiรณ en que no estaba “bajo presiรณn” para concluir un acuerdo con Teherรกn.

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El panorama general: una regiรณn al borde del abismo

Estos seis acontecimientos no son eventos aisladosโ€”son piezas de una crisis รบnica e interconectada. El colapso de las conversaciones de paz con Irรกn, la amenaza de bombardear a un aliado de EE.UU., la escalada militar y las maniobras diplomรกticas en Gaza son parte de una lucha mรกs amplia por el control del Medio Oriente.

Crisis Desarrollo clave Consecuencia
Crisis con Irรกn Irรกn cambia a una postura militar “completamente ofensiva” Escalada de guerra, temores por el suministro global de petrรณleo
Estrecho de Hormuz Trump amenaza con bombardear Omรกn por acuerdo con Irรกn Precios del petrรณleo superan los 91 dรณlares, riesgo de 120 dรณlares/barril
Diplomacia en Gaza Kushner y Netanyahu acuerdan general de EE.UU. para supervisar desarme de Hamรกs Posible avance, pero la retirada israelรญ sigue sin resolverse
Problemas de Trump รndice de aprobaciรณn cae a mรญnimo histรณrico del 33% Creciente presiรณn polรญtica para terminar la guerra

Los prรณximos dรญas serรกn crรญticos. La expiraciรณn del MoU de 60 dรญas, la agresiva postura militar de Irรกn y la retรณrica belicosa de Trump sugieren que la regiรณn se mueve hacia una gran escalada en lugar de una desescalada. Si la diplomacia de Kushner puede salvar un acuerdo en Gaza sigue siendo inciertoโ€”pero el Medio Oriente en su conjunto se estรก descontrolando rรกpidamente.

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The Strait of Hormuz Crisis: Underwater Drones, Territory Claims, and the U.S.-Israel Fault Line

The Strait of Hormuz Crisis: Underwater Drones, Territory Claims, and the U.S.-Israel Fault Line

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A dramatic escalation in the Strait of Hormuz, a deepening rift between Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu, and a series of bellicose statements from both leaders have pushed the Middle East to the brink of a wider conflagration. In a span of 24 hours, Iran struck two oil tankers with underwater drones in the strategic waterway, President Trump floated declaring the strait a U.S. territory, and Israel’s prime minister lobbed a diplomatic grenade at Britain while accusing Iran of seeking nuclear weapons.

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Iran’s Underwater Drone Gambit

The United Arab Emirates has formally accused Iran of using underwater drones to attack two oil tankers operated by its state-owned company, ADNOC, as they transited the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday evening. The strikes mark the first known use of this tactic against commercial vessels in the strategic chokepoint.

According to the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO), the attacks caused minor damage but no casualties. However, the incident adds to a growing tally of 17 ADNOC vessels that have been targeted by drones or missiles since the beginning of the U.S.-Iran conflict. In the first week of August alone, three attacks resulted in one sailor killed and 20 injured. The UAE has condemned the strikes as “acts of piracy”.

The attacks come as Tehran has issued a stark warning to Washington. Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi stated that Iran will continue to control traffic through the strait until the U.S. “accepts defeat”. “The Strait of Hormuz remains blocked and will not be reopened until Iran’s conditions are accepted,” he declared.

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Trump’s Territorial Ambition

In a stunning declaration that has drawn widespread international alarm, President Donald Trump announced he would “soon” declare the Strait of Hormuz a U.S. territory “after we finish defeating Iran”. Speaking to reporters, Trump said, “which is being very badly defeated โ€” pretty soon I’ll be declaring the Hormuz Strait a territory of the United States,” adding with a chuckle, “It’s true”.

However, later reports suggested Trump was “joking”. Regardless of the president’s intent, the statement has escalated tensions, with U.S. media reporting it as a serious provocation. Iran has dismissed Trump’s claims of control as “fake information”.

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The U.S.-Israel Rift Widens

As the crisis in the Strait unfolded, a parallel drama was playing out in Washington and Jerusalem. For the fourth time in recent weeks, President Trump has reportedly stopped short of endorsing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ahead of Israel’s October 27 election.

Axios reported that Trump has not given Netanyahu the support he seeks, with observers pointing to the Israeli premier’s declining popularity in the polls as a possible reason. In June, Trump had acknowledged he would “most likely” endorse Netanyahu but said he would first have to see who he was running against.

Netanyahu’s Nuclear Warning

In a radio interview released Thursday, Netanyahu sparked a diplomatic outcry by referring to Britain as the “Islamic Republic of Britain”. “Someone said that the first Islamic republic with nuclear weapons will be the Islamic Republic of Britain,” he said. “We are making sure there won’t be another one here, in Iran”.

The remark, intended as a joke, came as Israel continues to focus on Iran’s nuclear program and amid souring UK-Israel ties over the Gaza war. It drew sharp criticism both in Israel and abroad.

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Conclusion

The converging crises โ€” Iran’s underwater drone attack, Trump’s territorial threat, and Netanyahu’s provocative rhetoric โ€” paint a picture of a region sliding toward instability. The Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery for global oil shipments, has become the epicenter of a high-stakes confrontation that could reshape the Middle East.

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Die StraรŸe-von-Hormus-Krise: Unterwasser-Drohnen, Gebietsansprรผche und die US-israelische Bruchlinie

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Eine dramatische Eskalation in der StraรŸe von Hormus, ein sich vertiefender Riss zwischen Donald Trump und Benjamin Netanjahu sowie eine Reihe von kriegerischen ร„uรŸerungen beider Fรผhrer haben den Nahen Osten an den Rand eines grรถรŸeren Flรคchenbrandes gebracht. Innerhalb von 24 Stunden traf der Iran zwei ร–ltanker in der strategischen WasserstraรŸe mit Unterwasser-Drohnen, Prรคsident Trump lieรŸ durchblicken, die StraรŸe zu einem US-Territorium erklรคren zu wollen, und der israelische Ministerprรคsident warf eine diplomatische Granate in Richtung GroรŸbritannien, wรคhrend er dem Iran vorwarf, Atomwaffen anzustreben.

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Irans Unterwasser-Drohnen-Manรถver

Die Vereinigten Arabischen Emirate haben den Iran formell beschuldigt, am Donnerstagabend Unterwasser-Drohnen eingesetzt zu haben, um zwei ร–ltanker seines Staatsunternehmens ADNOC anzugreifen, als diese die StraรŸe von Hormus durchquerten. Die Angriffe markieren den ersten bekannten Einsatz dieser Taktik gegen Handelsschiffe in dem strategischen Engpass.

Nach Angaben des britischen Seefahrtssicherheitsdienstes UKMTO verursachten die Angriffe nur geringe Schรคden, aber keine Verletzten. Der Vorfall reiht sich jedoch in eine wachsende Liste von 17 ADNOC-Schiffen ein, die seit Beginn des US-iranischen Konflikts mit Drohnen oder Raketen angegriffen wurden. Allein in der ersten Augustwoche gab es drei Angriffe, bei denen ein Matrose getรถtet und 20 verletzt wurden. Die VAE verurteilten die Angriffe als “Piraterie”.

Die Angriffe erfolgen, wรคhrend Teheran Washington eine deutliche Warnung ausgesprochen hat. Der iranische VizeauรŸenminister Kasem Gharibabadi erklรคrte, der Iran werde die Durchfahrt durch die StraรŸe so lange kontrollieren, bis die USA eine “Niederlage akzeptieren”. “Die StraรŸe von Hormus bleibt blockiert und wird nicht wieder geรถffnet, bis die Bedingungen des Iran erfรผllt sind”, erklรคrte er.

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Trumps territorialer Anspruch

In einer erstaunlichen Erklรคrung, die international fรผr Alarm gesorgt hat, kรผndigte Prรคsident Donald Trump an, er werde die StraรŸe von Hormus “bald” zum US-Territorium erklรคren, “nachdem wir den Iran besiegt haben”. Trump sagte vor Reportern, der Iran werde “gerade sehr stark geschlagen โ€“ ziemlich bald werde ich die Hormus-StraรŸe zu einem Territorium der Vereinigten Staaten erklรคren”, und fรผgte mit einem Lachen hinzu: “Das stimmt”.

Spรคtere Berichte deuteten jedoch darauf hin, dass Trump nur “scherzte”. Unabhรคngig von der Absicht des Prรคsidenten haben die ร„uรŸerungen die Spannungen verschรคrft, und US-Medien berichteten davon als ernste Provokation. Der Iran hat Trumps Kontrollbehauptungen als “Falschinformation” zurรผckgewiesen.

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Der US-israelische Riss vertieft sich

Wรคhrend sich die Krise in der StraรŸe von Hormus zuspitzte, spielte sich ein paralleles Drama in Washington und Jerusalem ab. Berichten zufolge hat Prรคsident Trump sich zum vierten Mal in den letzten Wochen davor gescheut, Ministerprรคsident Benjamin Netanjahu vor der israelischen Wahl am 27. Oktober zu unterstรผtzen.

Axios berichtete, dass Trump Netanjahu die von ihm erhoffte Unterstรผtzung nicht gegeben habe, wobei Beobachter auf die sinkende Popularitรคt des israelischen Ministerprรคsidenten in den Umfragen als mรถglichen Grund verwiesen. Im Juni hatte Trump eingerรคumt, dass er Netanjahu “hรถchstwahrscheinlich” unterstรผtzen werde, sagte aber, er mรผsse erst sehen, gegen wen er antrete.

Netanjahus Atomwarnung

In einem am Donnerstag verรถffentlichten Radiointerview lรถste Netanjahu einen diplomatischen Aufschrei aus, als er GroรŸbritannien als “Islamische Republik GroรŸbritannien” bezeichnete. “Jemand sagte, die erste islamische Republik mit Atomwaffen werde die Islamische Republik GroรŸbritannien sein”, sagte er. “Wir stellen sicher, dass es hier, im Iran, keine weitere geben wird.”

Die als Scherz gemeinte Bemerkung fiel, wรคhrend Israel sich weiterhin auf das iranische Atomprogramm konzentriert und die britisch-israelischen Beziehungen aufgrund des Gaza-Krieges angespannt sind. Sie lรถste sowohl in Israel als auch international scharfe Kritik aus.

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Fazit

Die sich รผberschneidenden Krisen โ€“ der Angriff mit Unterwasser-Drohnen durch den Iran, Trumps territoriale Drohung und Netanjahus provokative Rhetorik โ€“ zeichnen das Bild einer Region, die in Richtung Instabilitรคt abgleitet. Die StraรŸe von Hormus, eine lebenswichtige Arterie fรผr die globalen ร–ltransporte, ist zum Epizentrum einer hochriskanten Konfrontation geworden, die den Nahen Osten neu gestalten kรถnnte.

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SECRET – FBI Finds โ€œMinimal Correlationโ€ Between Suicide Vests Used in Middle East and Europe

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Images of suicide vests and belts from an FBIโ€™s intelligence note released after the November 2013 .

An analysis of recent suicide bombings throughout the Middle East, Europe and Africa by the FBI Terrorism Explosive Device Analytical Center (TEDAC) that was released after the terrorist attacks in Paris, France last month states that โ€œsuicide vest and belt improvised explosive devices (IEDs) in the Middle Eastern, African, and European regions likely . . . have minimal correlationโ€ and do not indicate tactical migration.

Following the attacks in Paris, which featured seven separate suicide bombings, media coverage has focused on the prominent use of suicide vests as indicative a tactical shift for the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL).ย  Though there are past examples of suicide attacks inside Europe, such as the 2005 London bombings, the use of suicide vests in the Paris attacks has been said to represent an entirely new type of threat, a tactic once relegated to the battlefields of Iraq and Syria now appearing in European cities.ย  However, an External Intelligence Note issued by TEDAC on November 17 titled โ€œSuicide Vest and Belt Improvised Explosive Device Tactics in the Middle Eastern, African, and European Regions Show Minimal Signs of Tactic Migrationโ€ and obtained by Public Intelligence presents a different view, attributing the tactical similarities to factors such as โ€œavailable materials, training, and local or national counter-IED policies.โ€

While TEDAC would normally assume that โ€œsimilarities between suicide vests and belts from different regions likely indicate common training or common IED facilitators,โ€ the intelligence note states that these similarities โ€œmay be a product of independent open source research, thus resulting in a false link between devices and subjects.โ€ย  Moreover, the similarities may โ€œindicate tactic or construction influencesโ€ based on the nature of the devices and access to required materials.ย  Similarities can include everything from โ€œoverall IED construction, wiring techniques, common explosives, initiators, switches, electronic diagrams, enhancements, and employment.โ€

When broadly examined, the types of โ€œsuicide vests and belt IEDs observed in each regionโ€ covered in the intelligence note โ€œdiffer broadly in many characteristics, resulting in an inconclusive determination that the suicide vest and belt IEDs prevalent in any one area translate to tactic migration.โ€

A study by the Institute of National Security Studies found that there were approximately 370 suicide bombings in the Middle East region in 2014 claiming the lives of over 2,700 victims.ย  Iraq, Yemen, Lebanon and Libya all saw a significant increase in the use of the tactic over the previous year.ย  Prior to the attacks in Paris, suicide bombings in Europe have been primarily limited to Turkey and Russia.

ย  Middle East Europe Africa
Common explosives used in suicide vests/belts triacetone triperoxide (TATP), trinitrotoluene (TNT), Semtex, C4, Research Development Formula X (RDX), and pentaerythritol tetranitrate (PETN) TNT and C4 RDX, Ammonium Nitrate, and Urea Nitrate

The intelligence note takes several quotes from an interview conducted by Der Spiegel with a captured ISIL leader named Abu Abdullah discussing the groupโ€™s target selection process and methods for constructing suicide vests.ย  He describes how he used โ€œexplosive fill removed from artillery shells for car bombsโ€ and โ€œdrilled open the shells of anti-aircraft guns to construct suicide belts because he believed the effect of the powder was more intense.โ€ย  According to the interview, he would receive a potential bombersโ€™ measurements in โ€œadvance from the leadership in order to be able to make a well-fitting beltโ€ and โ€œalways had belts in different sizes prepared.โ€

Explosive vests in Yemen have also included similar design elements.ย  A suicide bomber tied to Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) was killed in July 2015 by Houthi forces prior to detonating his vest, allowing for forensic analysis.ย  The device featured โ€œdual grenade-pin detonators, a main charge wrapped with sheets of ball bearings, and detonation cord that was placed inside a pouch around the bomberโ€™s waist.โ€

Similar to the Middle East, bombings in Turkey have often used either C4 or trinitrotoluene (TNT) in suicide vests.ย  Vests used in the Middle East often included other high-powered explosives such as Semtex or Research Development Formula X (RDX) or triacetone triperoxide (TATP), the explosive that was reportedly used in the vests detonated during the Paris attacks.

ย 

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