A declassified 2016 National Intelligence Council assessment details a systematic pattern of Russian state-ordered killings — with high confidence that President Vladimir Putin personally authorizes them.

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The Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) released the memorandum “Kremlin-Ordered Assassinations Abroad Will Probably Persist” (SOCM 2016-035C) in April 2026, following a Freedom of Information Act request. The two-page document, produced by the National Intelligence Council in July 2016, lists confirmed and suspected assassinations carried out by Russian intelligence services since Putin’s rise to power.

The assessment concludes with high confidence that the Russian government will continue to use its intelligence services and loyal proxies to eliminate suspected terrorists as well as individuals abroad whom it deems threats to national security interests or the stability of Putin’s regime. This judgment is based on official Russian statements and investigative findings from foreign governments where such killings have occurred.

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The Documented Cases

The memorandum cites several cases attributed to the Kremlin:

2004 – Doha, Qatar: Two Russian military intelligence officers were convicted of killing Chechen leader Zelimkhan Yandarbiyev — designated as a terrorist by the U.S. and the U.N. The document describes this as the “first clear case” of a Moscow-directed assassination abroad during the Putin era.

2006 – London: Former FSB officer Alexander Litvinenko was poisoned with the radioactive isotope polonium-210. The official British inquiry concluded that Russian intelligence likely carried out the murder and that Putin “probably approved” it.

2004 – Kiev: Former Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko suffered a near-fatal dioxin poisoning while a presidential candidate advocating for Ukraine’s integration with the West. His supporters concluded that Russian intelligence introduced the toxin into his food.

2012 – United Kingdom: Russian businessman Alexander Perepilichnyy died suddenly while jogging, shortly before he was scheduled to testify in a money-laundering case linked to the Kremlin. His death was connected to biological toxins.

2015 – Luhansk: The self-proclaimed defense minister of the Luhansk People’s Republic, Oleksandr Bednov, was killed in an armored vehicle using a flamethrower.

The assassination of Russian opposition politician Boris Nemtsov in Moscow in 2015 is also referenced in connection with this pattern.

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The Kremlin’s Rationale

The analysis reveals a clear targeting strategy: Moscow focuses on intelligence defectors and dissidents whose actions the Kremlin deems “unacceptable” — Litvinenko is cited as the prime example. Also targeted are political and opposition leaders in key former Soviet republics perceived as threats.

Remarkably, the Russian government has been open about this policy. President Putin stated publicly in June 2006 that he had ordered security services to kill those responsible for murdering four Russian diplomats in Iraq. That same year, Russia amended its counterterrorism law — Defense Minister Sergey Ivanov explicitly stated that the legislation gave services a “legal basis” for killing terrorists outside Russian territory.

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Putin’s Personal Role

The U.S. assessment concludes that Putin personally authorizes assassinations of high-profile figures abroad. The British inquiry into Litvinenko’s murder reached the same conclusion, based on physical evidence and decision-making patterns within Russia’s security apparatus. Putin’s direct involvement reflects concern over significant political repercussions.

Particularly alarming: the document states that Russia possesses the capability to kill using chemical and biological agents — leveraging programs dating back to the Soviet era. The development of agents with lower risk of attribution might further tempt the Kremlin to consider additional assassinations.

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Systematic Surveillance

Russian intelligence systematically tracks dissidents and defectors abroad, according to the assessment. Putin has also given Ramzan Kadyrov, the Chechen strongman, a free hand to target ethnic Chechens abroad — these killings follow a distinct pattern and are often carried out with firearms.

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Conclusion

The declassified memorandum paints a stark picture of a Kremlin that has institutionalized political assassinations as an instrument of foreign and security policy — backed by explicit legal frameworks, directed from the highest levels of state power, and executed through methods ranging from sophisticated poisons to military-grade violence. The U.S. assessment that this practice will “probably persist” has proven prescient. The document also notes significant redactions under FOIA exemptions (b)(1), (b)(3), and (b)(7)(E), indicating that further sensitive details regarding intelligence sources, methods, and law enforcement techniques remain classified.

The complete declassified ODNI intelligence memorandum on Kremlin-ordered assassinations — including details on Litvinenko, Yushchenko, and Russia’s chemical weapons capabilities — is now available exclusively for Patreon subscribers at patreon.com/berndpulch.