Published: December 22, 2025

As cash quietly disappears from daily life and digital payments dominate, central banks worldwide accelerate their drive toward Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) – programmable money issued directly by governments. Proponents claim efficiency and inclusion, but critics warn of unprecedented surveillance and control. This investigative report examines the facts, hidden risks, beneficiaries, and power dynamics behind the CBDC revolution.

Global CBDC Tracker: The Race Intensifies

The Atlantic Council’s CBDC Tracker, a leading monitor, reveals explosive growth as of July 2025:

• 137 countries and currency unions (98% of global GDP) explore CBDCs.
• 72 in advanced stages (development, pilot, or launch).
• Record 49 active pilots.
• Only 3 fully launched retail CBDCs: Bahamas (Sand Dollar), Jamaica (JAM-DEX), and Nigeria (eNaira). 3 “LARGE” 4 “LARGE”

Major players lead:

• China’s e-CNY — Largest pilot, with trillions in transactions across sectors like healthcare and tourism; integrates into apps like WeChat/Alipay for programmable features. 5 “LARGE” 6 “LARGE”
• India’s digital rupee → Second-largest, circulation up 334% to $122 million by March 2025, expanding offline capabilities.
• EU digital euro — ECB completed preparation phase in October 2025; pilots eyed for 2027, potential launch ~2029, emphasizing “cash-like” privacy amid legislative debates.
• US — Outlier: President Trump’s January 2025 executive order banned retail CBDC development, citing surveillance risks – the only nation to do so. Focus shifts to private stablecoins.

Cross-border wholesale projects doubled post-Ukraine invasion, including China’s mBridge linking multiple nations.

For live updates: atlanticcouncil.org/cbdctracker/

The Promised Benefits: Efficiency or Illusion?

Central banks and IMF tout advantages:

• Instant, low-cost transactions and remittances.
• Financial inclusion for 1.4 billion unbanked, especially in emerging markets.
• Better monetary policy tools, like targeted stimulus via programmable money.
• Reduced illicit finance through traceability.

In pilots like Nigeria’s eNaira and India’s expansions, these gains appear – but adoption lags where private options (Alipay, stablecoins) dominate.

The Dark Side: Surveillance, Control, and Risks

Beneath promises lurk dangers: 0 “LARGE” 1 “LARGE” 2 “LARGE”

• Privacy Erosion — Unlike anonymous cash, CBDCs enable transaction tracking. In China, e-CNY ties into social credit systems, raising fears of dissent suppression or spending restrictions. Human Rights Foundation and critics highlight authoritarian misuse.
• Programmable Control → Money could expire, restrict purchases (e.g., “unapproved” items), or freeze accounts – tools for economic coercion.
• Cyber Risks — Centralized systems invite hacks disrupting economies.
• Disintermediation — Mass shifts to CBDCs could drain bank deposits, spiking lending costs.
• Geopolitical Weapon — CBDCs challenge dollar dominance; China’s lead aids sanctions evasion and influence in Belt and Road nations.

US lawmakers passed the Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act in 2025, codifying Trump’s ban over “surveillance state” fears. Even democratic pilots like the digital euro face backlash – ECB claims “highest privacy” with offline modes, but traceability for AML persists.

Who Profits? The Real Beneficiaries

CBDCs create winners:

• Central Banks/Governments → Direct control over money supply, seigniorage profits, efficient tax/stimulus. China’s PBOC gains surveillance edge.
• Tech Giants & Contractors — Firms like IBM, Accenture, and Chinese players (Alibaba) secure infrastructure contracts. Mastercard explores interoperability.
• Big Banks (Mixed) — Distribution fees, but risk losing deposits.
• Stablecoin Issuers (in Anti-CBDC Nations) — US push under GENIUS Act boosts Circle/Tether, with dollar-backed stablecoins hitting $227 billion in 2025.
• Geopolitical Players — China exports e-CNY tech for soft power; Europe seeks “strategic autonomy” from US tech.

Losers? Everyday citizens facing reduced privacy, and cash-dependent economies.

The Bottom Line: A Controlled Future?

CBDCs advance rapidly, driven by declining cash and private crypto threats. Official narratives stress inclusion and efficiency, but evidence points to control tools – especially in authoritarian regimes. Democratic safeguards (like EU offline privacy or US ban) offer resistance, but global fragmentation looms.

As Trump’s US embraces private stablecoins while China and Europe push public CBDCs, the battle for money’s future intensifies. Who holds the keys? Follow the trackers, question the promises.

Bernd Pulch
IN AI CYBER INTELLIGENCE

Sources: Atlantic Council CBDC Tracker, ECB reports, White House executive orders, BIS/IMF analyses, and public regulatory filings. Stay vigilant – the shift to digital money is underway.

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