JOINT CHIEFS OF STAFF – Joint Staff Strategic Multilayer Assessment: Russian Strategic Intentions

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Understanding the fate of worldwide rivalry and struggle is presently more significant than any time in recent memory. In a powerfully evolving world, the nature and character of fighting, prevention, compellence, acceleration the executives, and influence are critical and basic in deciding how the US and its accomplices should:

• Strategize to shield their worldwide advantages against exercises that are proposed to undermine those interests over the range of rivalry;

• Shield their inclinations against dangers by provincial contenders through available resources corresponding to procedures versus China and Russia however don’t undermine different interests; and

• Get ready US and accomplice powers to react to unforeseen and lithe improvements in worldwide legislative issues and innovation by distinguishing territories for participation, moderating the danger of exercises shy of equipped clash, and preventing furnished clash over various wellsprings of national power (e.g., exchange, tact, security).

The National Security System (NSS), National Safeguard Methodology (NDS), and National Military Procedure all note that future encounters between significant forces may regularly happen underneath the degree of outfitted clash. In this condition, monetary challenge, impact crusades, paramilitary activities, digital interruptions, and political fighting will probably turn out to be increasingly pervasive. Such encounters increment the danger of misperception and miscount, between powers with huge military quality, which may then build the danger of furnished clash. In this specific situation, the US ability to impact the results of both worldwide and local occasions must be reexamined. The developing uniqueness among incredible forces (i.e., the US, China, and Russia) with respect to what comprises authentic or adequate discouragement, compellence, and acceleration the board exercises ought to be deliberately analyzed.

With that in mind, this white paper surveys Russian exercises over the globe to assemble an improved, major comprehension of the contemporary and future impact condition. Countering Russian provocative exercises requires an exhaustive technique and the NDS perceives this reality so as to effectively counter Russian provocative exercises; thus, the US should cooperatively utilize various instruments of national control in a synchronized way. As white paper supporter Brig Gen (ret) Ransack Spalding III recommends, “the US job with respect to Russia ought to be to keep on connecting with European partners to lead the pack for adjusting in Europe. The partners’ objective ought to be discouragement. Simultaneously, the US ought to reciprocally connect with Russia to strip them away from China’s circle. The US can work with Russia in manners that improve the US-Russia relationship without diminishing European endeavors to adjust and dissuade.”

The articles in this white paper give government partners—knowledge, law authorization, military, and approach organizations—with important bits of knowledge and systematic structures to help the US, its partners, and accomplices in building up a thorough methodology to contend and vanquish this Russian test. Critical perceptions include:

• Russia is receiving coercive systems that include the arranged work of military and nonmilitary intends to stop and constrain the US, its partners and accomplices before and after the flare-up of threats. These procedures must be proactively stood up to, or the risk of critical outfitted clash may increment.

• Russia displays a profound situated feeling of geopolitical uncertainty which propels it to seek after key goals that set up an uncontested range of prominence in the post-Soviet locale. However, Russians progressively can’t help contradicting the Kremlin’s statements that the US is an approaching outside risk and an incendiary power in Russian local governmental issues.

• Russia’s hazy area strategies are best when the objective is profoundly captivated or does not have the ability to oppose and react successfully to Russian animosity. As per Russian vital idea, discouragement and compellence are cut out of the same cloth.

Just with an adjusted and synchrozined entire of government approach will the US contend and win against rising powers like Russia and China. Such cooperation requires a typical comprehension of our rivals, their strategies and wanted endstates and we mean that this white paper will accomplish this basic objective.

This white paper was set up as a major aspect of the Key Multilayer Asssessment, entitled The Eventual fate of Worldwide Challenge and Struggle. Twenty-three master donors added to this white paper and gave wide-going evaluations of Russia’s worldwide advantages and targets, just as the exercises—dim or something else—that it behaviors to accomplish them. This white paper is separated into five segments and twenty-five sections, as depicted underneath. This rundown reports a portion of the white paper’s significant level discoveries, yet it is not a viable alternative for a cautious read of the individual commitments.

There is expansive agreement among the patrons that Russian President Vladimir Putin is in reality holding fast to a worldwide fantastic technique, which expects to accomplish the accompanying objectives:

• Recover and verify Russia’s impact over previous Soviet countries

• Recapture overall acknowledgment as an “incredible power”

• Depict itself as a solid entertainer, a key local powerbroker, and a fruitful middle person (Katz; Borshchevskaya) so as to increase financial, military, and political impact over countries

worldwide and to refine the radical decides and standards that at present administer the world request (Lamoreaux)

As per Dr. Robert Individual, these objectives are inspired by Russia’s profound situated geopolitical frailty. Since the breakdown of the Soviet Association, Russia has battled to discover its place in the worldwide network, which has left the administration with a waiting want to recapture the impact and power that it once had. Specifically, Russia tries to recover its impact over previous Soviet states, which it claims are in its legitimate “authoritative reach” (Lamoreaux; Individual; Swamp). Therefore, one of the US’s center objectives, to be specific advancing and securing the worldwide liberal request, comes into conflict with the objectives of Russia’s terrific system. This supports the Kremlin’s conviction that it must contain and compel US impact and exercises in Europe and somewhere else over the globe. As Ms. Anna Borshchevskaya’s commitment recommends, the Russian initiative’s perspective is lose-lose; it accepts that with the end goal for Russia to win, the US must lose. In any case, Dr. Christopher Swamp’s commitment recommends that this world view isn’t really shared by the Russian populace or its tip top.

As prove by the scope of “hazy area” exercises it takes part in, some of the master donors contend that the Russian administration considers itself to be at war with the US and the West all in all. From a Russian point of view, this war isn’t add up to, yet rather, it is basic (Goure)— a kind of “war” that is inconsistent with the general US comprehension of fighting. Russia accepts that there is no inadmissible or ill-conceived type of prevention, compellence, or heightening administration (Goure). It additionally doesn’t put stock in the continuum of contention that the US has developed. Like Russia’s view of its opposition with the US, its impression of contention is dichotomous: one is either at war or not at war. To battle and win this war, Russia accepts that the effective incorporation of all instruments of state control (Goure), just as the coordinated work of non-military and military intends to deflect and constrain (Flynn), are foremost. Moreover, Russian military ideas incorporate choices for utilizing preemptive power to incite stun and deter a foe from directing military tasks and to urge a de-heightening of threats (Flynn). The creators see that Russia’s methodologies are persistently advancing and expect that the inconsistency between the Russian and the US comprehension of “contention” and “war” will keep on developing, prompting a higher danger of acceleration in future circumstances including the two countries.

By and large, Russia’s impact abroad is developing, and the Kremlin has aced the utilization of “cross breed fighting” in driving Russia’s international strategy (Lamoreaux). Russia uses an assortment of hazy area strategies around the world. These incorporate the utilization of paramilitary powers and different intermediaries, obstruction in political procedures, financial and vitality abuse (especially in Africa), surveillance, and media and publicity control. Putin is likewise adroit at mixing military and non military personnel components for most extreme effect (Weitz).

The particular strategies of half and half fighting that Russia utilizes change by locale. In Europe, for instance, Russia has used purposeful publicity, an expanding reliance on outside vitality assets, and political control to accomplish its essential objectives (Schindler; Lamoreaux). Interestingly, in the Center East and Africa—significant wellsprings of minerals and other regular assets from a Russian perspective1—Russia has fundamentally used financial abuse devices (Katz; Borshchevskaya; Severin). In Focal Asia, Russia keeps up a significantly more constrained nearness, because of China’s geographic closeness and the present degrees of monetary and security commitment by other provincial on-screen characters (Kangas). By the by, Russia retains impact in the Focal Asia, because of its authentic, etymological, and social associations with the district (Laruelle; Dyet). In like manner, in Latin America, Russia comes up short on an adequate measure of deployable assets to completely execute its methodology or to broaden its impact far (Ellis). Be that as it may, as Dr. Barnett S. Koven and Ms. Abigail C. Kamp watch, Russia compensates for its deficiencies by taking part in long winded and receptive undertakings to upset US impact in the locale.

Unveiled – Counter-Da’esh Influence Operations Cognitive Space Narrative Simulation Insights

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Counter-Da’esh Influence Operations Cognitive Space Narrative Simulation Insights

Page Count: 69 pages
Date: May 2016
Restriction: None
Originating Organization: Joint Staff J39
File Type: pdf
File Size: 3,665,757 bytes
File Hash (SHA-256):D7EC7D64E98A8B16FBA01D8D46A3AE74CC83DB19378C9EC6C6D5D3F23AAB18E4

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When planning to deal with any adversary or potential adversaries, it is essential to understand who they are, how they function, their strengths and vulnerabilities, and why they oppose us. Events over the course of the last year and a half highlight the importance of those factors as they relate to the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL or Da’esh). One of Da’esh’s obvious strengths is its ability to propagate tailored messages that resonate with its audiences. If the US Government and our allies are to counter Da’esh effectively, we must attack this center of gravity.

The Joint Staff J-39 Strategic Multilayer Assessment (SMA) branch has been evaluating options in “Cognitive Space” to conduct Information Operations to disrupt Da’esh’s ability to command and control forces, neutralize its ability to maintain or increase moral, political, and financial support as well as recruit foreign fighters. This SMA effort continues to identify methods to psychologically isolate Da’esh leaders from one another and their respective constituencies inside and outside of the organization. Furthermore, this SMA effort has been assessing the value of “integrated neuro-cognitive-narrative maneuver” approaches to develop messages and actions that are more likely to have intended effects and less likely to have undesirable unintended or collateral effects, as well as to evaluate message delivery methods more effectively and efficiently by developing campaigns that achieve undercutting effects.

The cornerstone of the effort was the execution of a simulation facilitated by the University of Maryland ICONS team, which sought to

a. support the Psychological Operations (PSYOP) community in meeting training requirements in ways that reinforce the PSYOP process and enhance counter-Da’esh messaging.

b. support the PSYOP community in integrating neuro-cognitive and social science concepts to refine counter-Da’esh message content and increase the effectiveness of the Information Operations (IO) campaign.

c. assist the PSYOP community with understanding the operational environment (OE) and the human networks operating in the OE: friendly, threat, and neutral. Possible examples include providing a (Political, Military, Economic, Social, Information, and Infrastructure) PMESII-framed OE analysis and center of gravity analysis.

This white paper is a compilation of the key findings from the simulation.


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