JOINT CHIEFS OF STAFF – Joint Staff Strategic Multilayer Assessment: Russian Strategic Intentions

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Understanding the fate of worldwide rivalry and struggle is presently more significant than any time in recent memory. In a powerfully evolving world, the nature and character of fighting, prevention, compellence, acceleration the executives, and influence are critical and basic in deciding how the US and its accomplices should:

• Strategize to shield their worldwide advantages against exercises that are proposed to undermine those interests over the range of rivalry;

• Shield their inclinations against dangers by provincial contenders through available resources corresponding to procedures versus China and Russia however don’t undermine different interests; and

• Get ready US and accomplice powers to react to unforeseen and lithe improvements in worldwide legislative issues and innovation by distinguishing territories for participation, moderating the danger of exercises shy of equipped clash, and preventing furnished clash over various wellsprings of national power (e.g., exchange, tact, security).

The National Security System (NSS), National Safeguard Methodology (NDS), and National Military Procedure all note that future encounters between significant forces may regularly happen underneath the degree of outfitted clash. In this condition, monetary challenge, impact crusades, paramilitary activities, digital interruptions, and political fighting will probably turn out to be increasingly pervasive. Such encounters increment the danger of misperception and miscount, between powers with huge military quality, which may then build the danger of furnished clash. In this specific situation, the US ability to impact the results of both worldwide and local occasions must be reexamined. The developing uniqueness among incredible forces (i.e., the US, China, and Russia) with respect to what comprises authentic or adequate discouragement, compellence, and acceleration the board exercises ought to be deliberately analyzed.

With that in mind, this white paper surveys Russian exercises over the globe to assemble an improved, major comprehension of the contemporary and future impact condition. Countering Russian provocative exercises requires an exhaustive technique and the NDS perceives this reality so as to effectively counter Russian provocative exercises; thus, the US should cooperatively utilize various instruments of national control in a synchronized way. As white paper supporter Brig Gen (ret) Ransack Spalding III recommends, “the US job with respect to Russia ought to be to keep on connecting with European partners to lead the pack for adjusting in Europe. The partners’ objective ought to be discouragement. Simultaneously, the US ought to reciprocally connect with Russia to strip them away from China’s circle. The US can work with Russia in manners that improve the US-Russia relationship without diminishing European endeavors to adjust and dissuade.”

The articles in this white paper give government partners—knowledge, law authorization, military, and approach organizations—with important bits of knowledge and systematic structures to help the US, its partners, and accomplices in building up a thorough methodology to contend and vanquish this Russian test. Critical perceptions include:

• Russia is receiving coercive systems that include the arranged work of military and nonmilitary intends to stop and constrain the US, its partners and accomplices before and after the flare-up of threats. These procedures must be proactively stood up to, or the risk of critical outfitted clash may increment.

• Russia displays a profound situated feeling of geopolitical uncertainty which propels it to seek after key goals that set up an uncontested range of prominence in the post-Soviet locale. However, Russians progressively can’t help contradicting the Kremlin’s statements that the US is an approaching outside risk and an incendiary power in Russian local governmental issues.

• Russia’s hazy area strategies are best when the objective is profoundly captivated or does not have the ability to oppose and react successfully to Russian animosity. As per Russian vital idea, discouragement and compellence are cut out of the same cloth.

Just with an adjusted and synchrozined entire of government approach will the US contend and win against rising powers like Russia and China. Such cooperation requires a typical comprehension of our rivals, their strategies and wanted endstates and we mean that this white paper will accomplish this basic objective.

…

This white paper was set up as a major aspect of the Key Multilayer Asssessment, entitled The Eventual fate of Worldwide Challenge and Struggle. Twenty-three master donors added to this white paper and gave wide-going evaluations of Russia’s worldwide advantages and targets, just as the exercises—dim or something else—that it behaviors to accomplish them. This white paper is separated into five segments and twenty-five sections, as depicted underneath. This rundown reports a portion of the white paper’s significant level discoveries, yet it is not a viable alternative for a cautious read of the individual commitments.

There is expansive agreement among the patrons that Russian President Vladimir Putin is in reality holding fast to a worldwide fantastic technique, which expects to accomplish the accompanying objectives:

• Recover and verify Russia’s impact over previous Soviet countries

• Recapture overall acknowledgment as an “incredible power”

• Depict itself as a solid entertainer, a key local powerbroker, and a fruitful middle person (Katz; Borshchevskaya) so as to increase financial, military, and political impact over countries

worldwide and to refine the radical decides and standards that at present administer the world request (Lamoreaux)

As per Dr. Robert Individual, these objectives are inspired by Russia’s profound situated geopolitical frailty. Since the breakdown of the Soviet Association, Russia has battled to discover its place in the worldwide network, which has left the administration with a waiting want to recapture the impact and power that it once had. Specifically, Russia tries to recover its impact over previous Soviet states, which it claims are in its legitimate “authoritative reach” (Lamoreaux; Individual; Swamp). Therefore, one of the US’s center objectives, to be specific advancing and securing the worldwide liberal request, comes into conflict with the objectives of Russia’s terrific system. This supports the Kremlin’s conviction that it must contain and compel US impact and exercises in Europe and somewhere else over the globe. As Ms. Anna Borshchevskaya’s commitment recommends, the Russian initiative’s perspective is lose-lose; it accepts that with the end goal for Russia to win, the US must lose. In any case, Dr. Christopher Swamp’s commitment recommends that this world view isn’t really shared by the Russian populace or its tip top.

As prove by the scope of “hazy area” exercises it takes part in, some of the master donors contend that the Russian administration considers itself to be at war with the US and the West all in all. From a Russian point of view, this war isn’t add up to, yet rather, it is basic (Goure)— a kind of “war” that is inconsistent with the general US comprehension of fighting. Russia accepts that there is no inadmissible or ill-conceived type of prevention, compellence, or heightening administration (Goure). It additionally doesn’t put stock in the continuum of contention that the US has developed. Like Russia’s view of its opposition with the US, its impression of contention is dichotomous: one is either at war or not at war. To battle and win this war, Russia accepts that the effective incorporation of all instruments of state control (Goure), just as the coordinated work of non-military and military intends to deflect and constrain (Flynn), are foremost. Moreover, Russian military ideas incorporate choices for utilizing preemptive power to incite stun and deter a foe from directing military tasks and to urge a de-heightening of threats (Flynn). The creators see that Russia’s methodologies are persistently advancing and expect that the inconsistency between the Russian and the US comprehension of “contention” and “war” will keep on developing, prompting a higher danger of acceleration in future circumstances including the two countries.

By and large, Russia’s impact abroad is developing, and the Kremlin has aced the utilization of “cross breed fighting” in driving Russia’s international strategy (Lamoreaux). Russia uses an assortment of hazy area strategies around the world. These incorporate the utilization of paramilitary powers and different intermediaries, obstruction in political procedures, financial and vitality abuse (especially in Africa), surveillance, and media and publicity control. Putin is likewise adroit at mixing military and non military personnel components for most extreme effect (Weitz).

The particular strategies of half and half fighting that Russia utilizes change by locale. In Europe, for instance, Russia has used purposeful publicity, an expanding reliance on outside vitality assets, and political control to accomplish its essential objectives (Schindler; Lamoreaux). Interestingly, in the Center East and Africa—significant wellsprings of minerals and other regular assets from a Russian perspective1—Russia has fundamentally used financial abuse devices (Katz; Borshchevskaya; Severin). In Focal Asia, Russia keeps up a significantly more constrained nearness, because of China’s geographic closeness and the present degrees of monetary and security commitment by other provincial on-screen characters (Kangas). By the by, Russia retains impact in the Focal Asia, because of its authentic, etymological, and social associations with the district (Laruelle; Dyet). In like manner, in Latin America, Russia comes up short on an adequate measure of deployable assets to completely execute its methodology or to broaden its impact far (Ellis). Be that as it may, as Dr. Barnett S. Koven and Ms. Abigail C. Kamp watch, Russia compensates for its deficiencies by taking part in long winded and receptive undertakings to upset US impact in the locale.

Unveiled – Counter-Da’esh Influence Operations Cognitive Space Narrative Simulation Insights

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Counter-Da’esh Influence Operations Cognitive Space Narrative Simulation Insights

Page Count: 69 pages
Date: May 2016
Restriction: None
Originating Organization: Joint Staff J39
File Type: pdf
File Size: 3,665,757 bytes
File Hash (SHA-256):D7EC7D64E98A8B16FBA01D8D46A3AE74CC83DB19378C9EC6C6D5D3F23AAB18E4

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When planning to deal with any adversary or potential adversaries, it is essential to understand who they are, how they function, their strengths and vulnerabilities, and why they oppose us. Events over the course of the last year and a half highlight the importance of those factors as they relate to the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL or Da’esh). One of Da’esh’s obvious strengths is its ability to propagate tailored messages that resonate with its audiences. If the US Government and our allies are to counter Da’esh effectively, we must attack this center of gravity.

The Joint Staff J-39 Strategic Multilayer Assessment (SMA) branch has been evaluating options in “Cognitive Space” to conduct Information Operations to disrupt Da’esh’s ability to command and control forces, neutralize its ability to maintain or increase moral, political, and financial support as well as recruit foreign fighters. This SMA effort continues to identify methods to psychologically isolate Da’esh leaders from one another and their respective constituencies inside and outside of the organization. Furthermore, this SMA effort has been assessing the value of “integrated neuro-cognitive-narrative maneuver” approaches to develop messages and actions that are more likely to have intended effects and less likely to have undesirable unintended or collateral effects, as well as to evaluate message delivery methods more effectively and efficiently by developing campaigns that achieve undercutting effects.

The cornerstone of the effort was the execution of a simulation facilitated by the University of Maryland ICONS team, which sought to

a. support the Psychological Operations (PSYOP) community in meeting training requirements in ways that reinforce the PSYOP process and enhance counter-Da’esh messaging.

b. support the PSYOP community in integrating neuro-cognitive and social science concepts to refine counter-Da’esh message content and increase the effectiveness of the Information Operations (IO) campaign.

c. assist the PSYOP community with understanding the operational environment (OE) and the human networks operating in the OE: friendly, threat, and neutral. Possible examples include providing a (Political, Military, Economic, Social, Information, and Infrastructure) PMESII-framed OE analysis and center of gravity analysis.

This white paper is a compilation of the key findings from the simulation.

…

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TOP-SECRET – Operation Northwood

Proposed Top Secret plan from 1962 stating intent among the Joint Chiefs of Staff to stage terrorist attacks, including killing innocent civilians, to provoke war with Cuba
Proposals include use of drone aircraft to stage foreign attacks, staging hijackings, staging attacks on U.S. vessels and facilities, staging riots, as well as the creation of “terror campaigns” on U.S. soil

Operation Northwoods was a plan circulated in the U.S. government in 1962 to stage false flag terrorist attacks inside the U.S. and abroad to provoke “military intervention in Cuba”. The plan called for Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) or other operatives to commit genuine acts of terrorism in U.S. cities and elsewhere. These acts of terrorism were to be blamed on Cuba in order to create public support for a war against that nation, which had recently become communist under Fidel Castro. One part of the Operation Northwoods plan was to “develop a Communist Cuban terror campaign in the Miami area, in other Florida cities and even in Washington.” The document was signed by Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Lyman Lemnitzer and reportedly presented to Secretary of Defense Robert McNamara on March 13, 1962. ¹ ²

The previously Top Secret document was originally made public on November 18, 1997, by the John F. Kennedy Assassination Records Review Board, a U.S. federal agency overseeing the release of government records related to John F. Kennedy’s assassination.³

“Appendix to Enclosure A” and “Annex to Appendix to Enclosure A” of the Northwoods document were first published online by the National Security Archive on November 6, 1998 in a joint venture with CNN as part of CNN’s 1998 Cold War television documentary series—specifically, as a documentation supplement to “Episode 10: Cuba,” which aired on November 29, 1998. “Annex to Appendix to Enclosure A” is the section of the document which contains the proposals to stage terrorist attacks.⁴

U.S. Government’s Willingness to Stage Terrorist Attacks

In the recommendations section of the “Justification for US Military Intervention in Cuba (TS)” memo, the Joint Chiefs of Staff make clear their willingness to stage actual terrorist events with legitimate casualties to sustain their intentions to “intervene” militarily in Cuba’s affairs. The cumulative effect of many of the recommendations is stated as being to provoke reactions from the Cuban government which would justify “military intervention”. Many of the suggested actions have a strong component of Psychological Operations (PSYOPS) designed to simultaneously engender domestic U.S. support for “military intervention” while portraying the Cuban government as a rogue, dangerous entity which will internationally serve to justify the U.S. military intervention. The suggested actions include:

Use of drone (unmanned) aircraft to simulate air-related catastrophes

8. It is possible to create an incident which will demonstrate convincingly that a Cuban aircraft has attacked and shot down a chartered civil airliner en route from the United States to Jamaica, Guatemala, Panama or Venezuela. The destination would be chosen only to cause the flight plan route to cross Cuba. The passengers could be a group of college students off on a holiday or any grouping of persons with a common interest to support chartering a non-scheduled flight.

a. An aircraft at Eglin AFB would be painted and numbered as an exact duplicate for a civil registered aircraft belonging to a CIA proprietary organization in the Miami area. At a designated time the duplicate would be substituted for the actual civil aircraft and would be loaded with the selected passengers, all boarded under carefully prepared aliases. The actual registered aircraft would be converted to a drone.

b. Take off times of the drone aircraft and the actual aircraft will be scheduled to allow a rendezvous south of Florida. From the rendezvous point the passenger-carrying aircraft will descend to minimum altitude and go directly into an auxiliary field at Eglin AFB where arrangements will have been made to evacuate the passengers and return the aircraft to its original status. The drone aircraft meanwhile will continue to fly the filed flight plan. When over Cuba the drone will begin transmitting on the international distress frequency a “MAY DAY” message stating he is under attack by Cuban MIG aircraft. The transmission will be interrupted by destruction of the aircraft which will be triggered by radio signal. This will allow ICAO radio stations in the Western Hemisphere to tell the US what has happened to the aircraft instead of the US trying to “sell” the incident.⁵

Staging “hijacking attempts” of civilian vessels

7. Hijacking attempts against civil air and surface craft should appear to continue as harassing measures condoned by the government of Cuba.⁶

Creation of “terror campaigns” inside the U.S. with legitimate victims

4. We could develop a Communist Cuban terror campaign in the Miami area, in other Florida cities and even in Washington.

The terror campaign could be pointed at refugees seeking haven in the United States. We could sink a boatload of Cubans en route to Florida (real or simulated). We could foster attempts on lives of Cuban refugees in the United States even to the extent of wounding in instances to be widely publicized. Exploding a few plastic bombs in carefully chosen spots, the arrest of Cuban agents and the release of prepared documents substantiating Cuban involvement, also would be helpful in projecting the idea of an irresponsible government.⁷

Destruction of U.S. military vessels

A “Remember the Maine” incident could be arranged in several forms:

a. We could blow up a US ship in Guantanamo Bay and blame Cuba.

b. We could blow up a drone (unmanned) vessel anywhere in the Cuban waters. We could arrange to cause such incident in the vicinity of Havana or Santiago as a spectacular result of Cuban attack from the air or sea, or both. The presence of Cuban planes or ships merely investigating the intent of the vessel could be fairly compelling evidence that the ship was taken under attack. The nearness to Havana or Santiago would add credibility especially to those people that might have heard the blast or have seen the fire. The US could follow up with an air/sea rescue operation covered by US fighters to “evacuate” remaining members of the non-existent crew. Casualty lists in US newspapers would cause a helpful wave of national indignation.⁸

Staging fires and mortar attacks on U.S. military bases to cause actual damage to installations and potentially personnel

5. Blow up ammunition inside the base; start fires.
6. Burn aircraft on air base (sabotage).
7. Lob mortar shells from outside of base into base. Some damage to installations.⁹

Using friendly provocateurs to stage riots

4. Start riots near the base main gate (friendly Cubans)¹⁰

Source notes:

Pentagon Proposed Pretexts for Cuban Invasion in 1962. National Security Archive. http://www.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/news/20010430/index.html [↩]
Lyman Lemnitzer. Wikipedia.org. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lyman_Lemnitzer [↩]
Operation Northwoods. Wikipedia.org. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Northwoods [↩]
Ibid. [↩]
Operation Northwoods Documents. Public Intelligence. http://publicintelligence.net/operation-northwoods-documents/ [↩]
Ibid. [↩]
Ibid. [↩]
Ibid. [↩]
Ibid. [↩]

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Counter-Da’esh Influence Operations Cognitive Space Narrative Simulation Insights

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U.S. Government’s Willingness to Stage Terrorist Attacks

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