Key Points

• U.S. Treasury Bond Sales Surge: The U.S. issued $1.2 trillion in Treasury bonds in H1 2025, driven by fiscal deficits and tariff-driven inflation concerns, with 10-year yields rising to 4.35%.
• Germany’s Bond Market Transformation: Germany issued €95 billion in federal bonds (Bunds) in H1 2025, propelled by a €500 billion infrastructure fund, pushing 10-year Bund yields to 2.71%.
• Global Trade Tensions Impact: Trump’s tariffs (50% copper, 200% pharmaceuticals, 35% Canada) and EU’s $84 billion retaliatory tariffs increase market volatility, boosting demand for safe-haven bonds.
• China’s Liquidity Injection: The People’s Bank of China’s $700 billion stimulus lifts global bond market sentiment, with Chinese 10-year yields at 1.75%.
• Indian Markets Stable: Sensex and Nifty hold steady after a rebound, supported by 2.1% retail inflation, with India-U.S. trade talks stalled.
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State Bond Sales in 2025: U.S. and Germany

In 2025, state bond markets in the U.S. and Germany have seen significant activity, driven by fiscal policy shifts, trade tensions, and economic stimulus measures. The U.S. Treasury and German Bundesrepublik Deutschland Finanzagentur have been key players, with bond sales reflecting divergent economic strategies and global market dynamics. Below, we analyze H1 2025 bond sales, provide a ranking, and offer predictive insights for future sales and credit rating consequences.

2025 State Bond Sales Ranking (H1 2025)

• 1. United States: $1.2 trillion in Treasury securities issued, including $650 billion in 10-year notes and $200 billion in 30-year bonds. Driven by a $2.1 trillion federal deficit and tariff-related inflation risks, U.S. Treasuries remain the global benchmark despite a sell-off spurred by Trump’s tariff policies. Yields on 10-year Treasuries rose to 4.35%, up 0.3% from Q1 2025, reflecting investor caution. Japan and China hold $1.15 trillion and $850 billion in U.S. Treasuries, respectively, as of April 2025.
• 2. Germany: €95 billion in federal bonds (Bunds) issued, including €66.5 billion in 10-year Bunds and €17 billion in 15-year Bunds. A €500 billion infrastructure fund and relaxed borrowing rules have increased issuance, pushing 10-year Bund yields to 2.71%, up 0.29% year-on-year. Germany’s AAA-rated bonds are gaining appeal as a safe-haven amid U.S. market volatility.

Predictive Ranking for Future State Bond Sales (H2 2025–2026)

• 1. United States: Projected issuance of $2.5 trillion in 2025 and $2.8 trillion in 2026, driven by persistent deficits and infrastructure spending. Tariff-induced inflation (projected at 4.5% in 2026) and a potential Federal Reserve rate hike to 4.75%–5.0% could push 10-year yields to 4.5%–5.0%. Demand for Treasuries may soften due to tariff-related sell-offs, but foreign holders like Japan and China will likely maintain significant positions.
• 2. Germany: Expected issuance of €200 billion in 2025 and €250 billion in 2026, fueled by infrastructure investments and green bond initiatives. Yields may rise to 3.0% by 2026 as fiscal expansion continues, but Germany’s AAA rating will sustain demand. Covered bond issuance, already €31 billion in 2023, is projected to grow 10% annually, supporting green mortgage Pfandbriefe.

Rating Consequences

United States: The U.S. retains its AA+ rating (S&P) due to robust economic fundamentals, but rising deficits and tariff-driven inflation risks could pressure ratings. S&P Global notes a potential downgrade to AA if debt-to-GDP exceeds 140% by 2027 (currently 120%). Higher yields and reduced foreign demand (e.g., China diversifying reserves) may increase borrowing costs, with 10-year Treasury yields potentially hitting 5% by 2026.

Germany: Germany’s AAA rating remains stable, bolstered by fiscal discipline and strong demand for Bunds as safe-haven assets. S&P Global highlights resilience in covered bond markets, with new green Pfandbrief standards effective January 1, 2025, enhancing investor confidence. However, rising real estate taxes and a projected 0.5% house price increase in 2025 could strain mortgage markets, potentially impacting covered bond ratings if defaults rise.

Global Market Context

China’s $700 billion liquidity injection via reverse repos at 1.40% has lifted global bond markets, with Chinese 10-year yields at 1.75%. The CSI 300 gained 1.2%, reflecting optimism, though yuan depreciation risks persist. Indian markets stabilized, with Sensex at 82,950.69 and Nifty at 25,308.45, supported by 2.1% retail inflation. U.S. markets saw the S&P 500 at 6,316.65 and Nasdaq at 20,890.43, driven by Nvidia’s 5% surge after resuming H20 AI chip exports to China. Trump’s tariffs and the EU’s $84 billion retaliatory plan on U.S. goods (Boeing, autos, bourbon) intensify volatility, boosting demand for German Bunds.

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Investment Highlights

The U.S. Treasury’s $1.2 trillion issuance reflects robust demand despite tariff concerns, with foreign holders like Japan ($1.15 trillion) and China ($850 billion) maintaining significant stakes. Germany’s €95 billion in Bunds, including €66.5 billion in 10-year bonds, aligns with a €500 billion infrastructure push, enhancing its safe-haven status. China’s $700 billion liquidity injection supports global bond markets, with JSW Energy’s 250 MW/500 MWh battery storage deal and SJVN’s 592 MW hydro contracts signaling green investment growth. Malaysia’s $1.5 billion Vietnam wind project and Ørsted’s €750 million Dutch offshore wind allocation highlight global renewable trends.

Property Market Updates

Mumbai’s housing sales dropped 32% in H1 2025 (1,89,570 units), but registrations remain stable. Germany’s rents rose 7.2% in Q1 2025, with Berlin up 9.1%, though new real estate taxes effective January 1, 2025, may increase costs. U.S. home prices grew 1.4% year-on-year, with mortgage rates at 6.81%. Dubai’s luxury market surged 15% ahead of Expo 2025. HDB Financial Services’ IPO nears launch.

Stock Market Trends

Indian markets held steady, with Sensex at 82,950.69 and Nifty at 25,308.45, supported by 2.1% retail inflation. U.S. markets saw the S&P 500 at 6,316.65 and Nasdaq at 20,890.43, driven by Nvidia’s 5% surge. Chinese markets gained, with the CSI 300 up 1.2%. Gold held at $3,350/oz, silver at $37.8, and Brent crude at $66.85/barrel. The Indian rupee stabilized at ₹85.70.

Economic Outlook

China’s stimulus targets 4.0% growth, constrained by property woes. India’s Q4 FY25 GDP grew 7.4%, with FY26 at 6.3%. The U.S. Federal Reserve holds rates at 4.25%–4.50%, with a possible September hike. Germany’s GDP is forecast at 0.2% in 2025 and 1.5% in 2026. Tariff tensions and stalled India-U.S. trade talks drive volatility, with German Bunds benefiting from a flight to quality.

Comprehensive Analysis

This report, powered by Investment The Original by Bernd Pulch, compiles global investment news as of 3:56 PM CEST on July 16, 2025. U.S. Treasury sales lead due to deficit spending, but tariff risks may elevate yields. Germany’s Bunds gain traction as safe-haven assets amid global uncertainty. China’s stimulus supports bond markets, but trade wars and inflation risks will shape H2 2025. Subscribe to patreon.com/berndpulch for exclusive leaks. Learn more in the podcast Nacktes Geld.

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