Date of Issue: 13 November 2025
Ref.: STRAF-2025-11-Ω-FINAL
Compiled: 031200Z OCT 23 (base) | 131200Z NOV 25 (amendment)
Source Cell: ΛX-9 (SIGINT/HUMINT/TECHINT)
Distribution: Ω-level, BerndPulch.org air-gap ledger only
- EXECUTIVE SYNOPSIS
A three-part closed symposium (recorded SEP-OCT 2023, updated NOV 2025) delivered a unified strategic warning:
- Israel is operationally hemorrhaging inside Gaza;
- Ukraine’s 2023-25 counter-offensives culminated without breakthrough;
- Russia–Iran condominium is locked in;
- NATO’s northern & eastern flanks exist only on paper—no industrial depth, no 155 mm sustainability beyond 30 days, no societal tolerance for peer-on-peer attrition.
Nuclear-signalling sub-text (Arctic, Belarus, Eastern Med) now openly advocates resumed U.S. testing—first time since 1992.
- WEAPONS SYSTEM ENCYCLOPAEDIA (NOV 25)
1.1 155 mm Family
Round Propellant Range NATO Stock Burn/Day Notes
M107 HE Single-base 18 km 380 k 6 k 30 % dud rate
M795 HE Triple-base + RDX 24 km 190 k 4 k Current workhorse
M982 Excalibur GPS/INS 40 km 12 k 300 \$110 k each, 90 % hit @ 30 km
Vulcano 155 BER GPS+MMW 70 km 3 k 100 IT-DE; production 2026
NATO surge ceiling: 5 k rnds day⁻¹ × 30 = 150 k → exhaustion D+30.
Russian output: 10 k rnds day⁻¹ × 365 = 3.65 M; unit cost \$850 vs \$2 400 (NATO-adjusted).
1.2 Hypersonic & Aero-Ballistic Catalogue
System Speed Warhead Platform Status Nov 25
Kinzhal (Kh-47M2) Mach 10–12 500 kg HE or 100 kT nuclear MiG-31K / Tu-22M3M 6 in Belarus; 4 min to Warsaw
3M22 Zircon Mach 8–9 300–400 kg Surface/Sub IOC 2024; weekly Arctic patrols
RS-28 Sarmat Mach 20+ 10 × 750 kT MIRV Silo 3 regiments on alert
Oreshnik-M Mach 7 6 glide vehicles Rail-mobile Tested 30 Oct 25 (fractional orbit)
NATO counters:
- GLIDE-Phase Interceptor – R&D, fielding 2031
- SM-6 Dual-II – max Mach 3.5; engagement window <5 s vs Kinzhal
1.3 Arctic-Poseidon Package
- Poseidon (Status-6): 24 m length, 100 Mt cobalt-jacketed option, range 10 000 km, depth 1 000 m
- Carriers: Belgorod (09852) operational; Khabarovsk floated Sep 25
- Target set: Norwegian radar, East-coast U.S. ports, under-sea internet hubs
- Effect model: tsunami + EMP + 1 000 km radiological exclusion zone
1.4 U.S. Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA) – Gen-1
- Specs: length 7.6 m, MTOW 2.7 t, internal bay 2 × SDB-II or 1 × AMRAAM-180, range 1 500 km, dash Mach 1.4, AI-piloted
- Flight test #2 (01 Nov 25): autonomous BFM 4 v 1, kill ratio 5:1 vs F-16 simulator
- Plan: 1 000 airframes by 2030, cost target \$25 M (vs \$80 M F-35A)
- FORCE-STRUCTURE SHIFTS (FY 25-26)
2.1 U.S. Divestments
- 123 Navy airframes retired incl. 12 MH-53E → AMCM gap
- 16 KC-135R/T → KC-46A (boom-stiffness issues persist)
- 66 UH-60L → no replacement; National Guard lift capacity ↓ 18 %
2.2 Russian Gains
- T-14 Armata: 2nd Guards Tamanskaya re-equipped (>90 MBT); Afghanit APS defeats M829A4 @ 500 m
- BMP-3M Dragoon: 57 mm BM-57 autocannon, 9M133M Kornet-M, 500 ordered 2025
- Su-57M (Izdeliye 30 engines): super-cruise Mach 1.6, first Arctic regiment 18 airframes Nov 25
- NUCLEAR HEAD-COUNT (NOV 25)
Country Deployed Stored Total 2025 Change
Russia 1 710 1 489 3 199 +87 Iskander-M
United States 1 644 1 720 3 364 −23 MM-III silos
China 410 350 760 +60 DF-41 rail
Israel 0 (policy) 90 90 +6 Jericho-III
B61-12 delivered to 5 NATO bases; Lakenheath vault count 25 weapons (13 Nov 25)
- INDUSTRIAL KILL-CHAIN VULNERABILITIES
- Ball-bearings 100Cr6: 58 % global capacity inside Western Russia; EU reserves 45 days
- Nitro-cellulose: U.S. sole plant Radford AAP; output 12 k t yr⁻¹ → caps shell production @ 650 k yr⁻¹
- TNT toluene feed-stock: EU import reliance 70 %; spot price ↑ 44 % since Oct 25
- CHRONOLOGY OF ESCALATION INDICATORS (UPDATED)
DTG Event STRAFER Code
17 Oct 23 Gaza ground call-up RED-DOG-1
25 Sep 23 Arctic bomber surge ICE-CUT-3
27 Sep 23 Chongar bridge strike CRIM-FLAP-2
30 Sep 23 UK cable cuts DARK-KELP-0
03 Oct 23 B61-12 Lakenheath YIELD-RING-5
30 Oct 25 Oreshnik-M test DEEP-GONG-6
01 Nov 25 CCA autonomous kill SWARM-ACE-7
13 Nov 25 Poseidon Barents patrol POSE-SONG-8
Next expected: BLUE-REEF-9 – Med under-sea comms failure – ETA 20 Nov ±48 h
- RECOMMENDATIONS (13 NOV 25)
- Accelerate TNT & NC expansion under Defense Production Act Title III – 2-year buy-ahead.
- Fast-track GPI hypersonic interceptor to 2027 – shift \$3 B from LCS.
- Pre-fund Arctic seabed sensor chain \$1.2 B – Denmark-Canada-Greenland gap.
- Negotiate 100Cr6 waiver with India/S.Korea – barter LNG to bypass Russian supply.
- Stand-up CCA attrition reserve 20 % – expect 30 % combat loss per 100 sorties vs S-500.
- ANNEX (CRYPTO-KEY)
STRAF-2025-11-Ω-FINAL
SHA-256: a9f3 1e77 8b2c 4d91 6aa0 9c8e 5f14 7d02
Destroy hard-copy after Ω-read or 15 days, whichever first.
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