INVESTMENT – THE ORIGINAL DIGEST – November 12, 2025 ✌
FOUNDED 2000 – STILL INDEPENDENT. STILL UNFILTERED.
Executive Summary (English)
Markets entered November 12 in a phase of cautious optimism as the U.S. House of Representatives prepared to vote on ending the federal shutdown and restoring critical data flows. While broad indices held steady, the tech-heavy segments dipped amid renewed valuation concerns; sovereign liquidity issues in U.S. Treasuries resurfaced as a focal risk.
Key Market Movements
- Equities: The S&P 500 level held around 6,855 with negligible change (~–0.03 %) while the Dow Jones Industrial Average surprised with a +0.72 % advance, primarily on cyclical strength.
- Tech/AI: The spotlight was on Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) shares rising ~6–8 % after CEO remarks on AI market share growth; conversely, Nvidia Corporation edged lower after SoftBank Group’s ~$5.8 billion stake sale triggered caution.
- Fixed Income: While yields remained relatively muted, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York noted that Treasury market liquidity has degraded somewhat — bid-ask spreads widened and depth thinned.
- Commodities/FX: The U.S. dollar stabilized as the shutdown-end narrative supported risk-assets; safe-haven flows weakened slightly. Oil demand concerns and supply signals kept energy under pressure while base-metals were mixed.
Economic & Policy Context
- The U.S. government shutdown, now in its 43rd day, is expected to conclude imminently as the House moves toward funding restoration, boosting data-flow and policy clarity.
- Tech valuations remain a key battleground: while AI exposure is high, back-end fundamentals (costs, margins, hardware cycles) are under scrutiny and may dampen enthusiasm.
- Treasury market liquidity again flagged: Despite stable yields, depth and price-impact measures suggest structural strains — a hidden risk for global asset-pricing behaviour.
Tactical & Strategic Insight
- Tactical (0-3 months): With the reopening narrative playing out, selective cyclicals and industrials may benefit, but investors should hedge tech exposure and watch liquidity cracks.
- Conviction (3-12 months): AI infrastructure and industrial-tech convergence remain structural themes; however, valuations and credit funding dynamics should be navigated carefully.
- Risks to monitor: Treasury market dysfunction, a surprise inflation print post-shutdown, renewed trade/tariff activation, and a tech earnings pullback triggered by hardware-cycle weakness.
Bernd Pulch Commentary
“Relief trades are always fragile until the plumbing holds. Right now, we’re watching two pipes: the reopening of government and the underlying liquidity system. One may open with a flourish — the other may already be leaking in silence.”
For full-scope briefs, intelligence dossiers, portfolio models and early-release alerts, visit: 👉 patreon.com/investment
Ausblick (Deutsch)
Die Aussicht auf das Ende des US-Shutdowns bringt kurzfristig eine positive Risikowelle, aber die Märkte erinnern sich – nicht alle Erleichterungs-Trades halten. Besonders die Tech- und KI-Schiene steht unter Druck von Bewertungen und Hardwarezyklen. Mittel- bis langfristig bleiben Liquidität, Refinanzierung und Bewertung die wahren Koordinaten.
Tags (English)
Investment Digest, Global Markets, S&P 500, Dow Jones, Tech Stocks, AI Infrastructure, Treasury Liquidity, Government Shutdown, Commodities, FX, Market Strategy, Bernd Pulch, Patreon Exclusive
Tags (Deutsch)
Investment Digest, Weltmärkte, S&P 500, Dow Jones, Technologieaktien, KI-Infrastruktur, Treasury-Liquidität, Regierungsschließung, Rohstoffe, Devisen, Marktstrategie, Bernd Pulch, Patreon Exklusiv
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