An upcoming Ukrainian counteroffensive is the talk of the town. It has been planned for months. NATO officers from the U.S. and England are involved in the planning. According to Reuters, the troops provided include about 40,000 freshly trained soldiers grouped into eight assault brigades. The target is believed to be Zaporozhye and Artyomovsk (Bachmut).
The surprise seems to be the number of tanks. In particular, it turned out that among the ready tanks there are already 31 Abrams M1 main battle tanks. Originally, the Western media said that these tanks could be delivered at the earliest towards the end of the year. But now they are there anyway! It may well be that disinformation via the media is part of the Western strategy. The next question that arises is about the occupation. Is it really made up of recruits trained in a kind of rapid boiling course, or was the crew supplied with the tanks? In any case, the latter is very likely, since poorly trained Ukrainian tank crews would devalue the tank weapon. However, NATO would thus run the risk that one or the other tank crew would fall into Russian hands, making it impossible to deny NATO’s direct involvement in the conflict.
At present, an offensive is prevented by the bad weather and especially by the muddy soils in which the heavy Western tanks would sink.
That disinformation is part of the NATO strategy can also be seen in another (false) report in the Western media: allegedly the Ukrainian deployment plans have appeared on the net. The whole convolute is obviously a cleverly made mixture of facts and fiction. Of course, there is a corresponding media frenzy to make the leak seem credible. Well, it can’t get any dumber! Obviously one hopes to dupe Russia!
The leak claims that Kiev plans to equip the eight assault brigades with 253 tanks, more than 380 infantry fighting vehicles and armed personnel carriers, 480 vehicles, 147 artillery pieces and 571 HMMWV “Humvee” armored vehicles to carry out the offensive. When you think about the thousands of tanks that Ukrainian troops had lost so far, this listing seems like a joke.
It may be doubted that the Russian front can be broken through sustainably with this force, if in reality it is not much stronger! If one really believes these numbers, this enterprise seems rather like an act of desperation. This offensive would then be a Ukrainian version of the Battle of the Bulge, but with the shortcoming that the West and Ukraine have been talking about this offensive for months and therefore the element of surprise is modest. This shortcoming is being compensated for by disinformation.
Of course, it could also be that the number of troops reported (eight brigades) is simply grossly understated. One probably has to assume a much higher troop strength.
Russia is of course preparing for this counteroffensive. For example, a 70-kilometer-long trench has been dug in the Zaporizhzhya oblast.
The Russian army is also not lazy in other ways to hinder the offensive. For example, it was announced that the Russian army had destroyed a warehouse with 70,000 tons of fuel. However, one wonders why there is still an intact refinery in Ukraine at all? In any case, destroying some refineries would be less effort than the many substations that have apparently been repaired in the meantime.
Undoubtedly, a counteroffensive would be Selensky’s last attempt to turn the tide. If this attempt fails, the Ukrainian army is finished.