Here Are Some Key Events to Look For:
An effective drug treatment (probably 3-7 months). That won’t stop the spread and it won’t be a “cure” but it will take some pressure off the health system. (One tip: DON’T take hydroxychloroquine. That’s a really bad idea. The first study showed increased mortality in patients and we have no idea how to use it effectively.)
Widespread testing… most likely at home pin prick antibody blood testing. Hard to give an exact time frame and the logistics are huge but the test is cheap, easy and fast. Running two tests 14+ days apart through a whole region would identify most cases and also let you know who is likely to have some immunity.
A vaccine (probably 12-18 months…could be longer). That’s when things should return to somewhat normal. Then the main risk is the virus mutating but even that becomes a lower risk because it will no longer be a “novel” virus. Once people are vaccinated their immune systems will not be starting from zero with a different coronavirus.
Caution – The 2nd Wave
In some regions, case numbers will be driven down with strong social distancing and regions may lift restrictions.
But this could be a problem…
Historically it’s the second and third wave of infections that cause the most deaths. With restrictions lifted an area could see returning cases again, possibly after summer, either from existing infections in the region spiking back up or infections being reintroduced from areas of the world that are in winter.
Understanding that most regions are looking at 6-18 months of social distancing can help businesses plan their marketing…
Businesses should take aggressive precautions to stay safe and sanitary and get aggressive in educating clients about what precautions they’re taking. That will give people the confidence to do business with them…