Secrecy News – Violent Behavior cannot be predicted

VIOLENT BEHAVIOR CANNOT BE RELIABLY PREDICTED, PANEL SAYS

The outbreak of violence by individuals who seek to harm other persons or
institutions cannot be reliably predicted today, the Defense Science Board
said in a new report to the Secretary of Defense.  Instead, efforts to
counter violence should focus on prevention and mitigation of the threat.

The new DSB study on "Predicting Violent Behavior" was initiated in
response to the 2009 Fort Hood shooting in which thirteen people were
killed and dozens wounded allegedly by Army Major Nidal Malik Hasan, who
had not previously been identified as a threat.

        http://www.fas.org/irp/agency/dod/dsb/predicting.pdf

"The state of the art in physiological and neurological sciences today
does not provide useful capability for predicting targeted violence," the
DSB report said.

"While there are promising indicators that might predict aberrant
behavior, severe personality disorders, addiction, and other anti-social
behaviors, the current state of the science is such that the false
positives and false negatives are very high. In addition, developing a
practical means to observe any useful indicators may present a significant
challenge."

In the wake of the Fort Hood shootings, the Defense Department attempted
to develop lists of problematic behaviors that might signal a propensity to
violence.  One such list was the behaviors included in the adjudicative
guidelines for granting (or denying) security clearances.  

        http://www.fas.org/sgp/isoo/guidelines.html

But the use of that list was not justified, the DSB said.  "The Task Force
found little to no relationship between the adjudicative guidelines and
targeted violence."

Moreover, "the Task Force also found that indicator lists are most
effective in the hands of trained professionals and are not an effective
substitute for a more nuanced, comprehensive set of factors developed by
threat-management practitioners. If not handled properly and by trained
personnel, lists can lead to high false-positives with accompanying stigma,
lack of trust, and reluctance to report. Lists also tend to be static and
unless continually revisited the list of indicators becomes less likely to
identify adaptive perpetrators who will purposefully avoid elements of
listed behavior to avoid interdiction."

Overall, the DSB Panel advised, "prevention as opposed to prediction
should be the Department's goal.  Good options exist in the near-term for
mitigating violence by intervening in the progression from violent ideation
to violent behavior."

PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS AND NATIONAL SECURITY, MORE FROM CRS

Presidential elections and the possible transition to a new Administration
are potentially a period of heightened national security vulnerability, a
new report from the Congressional Research Service says.

The report distinguishes five phases of the presidential election period,
and proposes concerns relevant to each.  Thre report provides tabulated
listings of US military operations during presidential transition period,
and terrorist incident that have occurred during such transitions.  See
"2012-2013 Presidential Election Period: National Security Considerations
and Options," October 5, 2012:

        http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/natsec/R42773.pdf

Some other noteworthy CRS products that Congress has not made publicly
available include the following.

Sudan and South Sudan: Current Issues for Congress and U.S. Policy,
October 5, 2012:

        http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R42774.pdf

U.S. Textile Manufacturing and the Trans-Pacific Partnership Negotiations,
October 5, 2012:

        http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R42772.pdf

Presidential Appointments, the Senate's Confirmation Process, and Changes
Made in the 112th Congress, October 9, 2012:

        http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R41872.pdf

Unemployment: Issues in the 112th Congress, October 5, 2012:

        http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R41578.pdf

Antipoverty Effects of Unemployment Insurance, October 4, 2012:

        http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R41777.pdf

_______________________________________________
Secrecy News is written by Steven Aftergood and published by the
Federation of American Scientists.

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_______________________
Steven Aftergood
Project on Government Secrecy
Federation of American Scientists
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email:  saftergood@fas.org
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twitter: @saftergood