INVESTMENT – THE ORIGINAL DIGEST – November 12, 2025 ✌

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Executive Summary (English)

Markets entered November 12 in a phase of cautious optimism as the U.S. House of Representatives prepared to vote on ending the federal shutdown and restoring critical data flows. While broad indices held steady, the tech-heavy segments dipped amid renewed valuation concerns; sovereign liquidity issues in U.S. Treasuries resurfaced as a focal risk.

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Key Market Movements

• Equities: The S&P 500 level held around 6,855 with negligible change (~–0.03 %) while the Dow Jones Industrial Average surprised with a +0.72 % advance, primarily on cyclical strength.
• Tech/AI: The spotlight was on Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) shares rising ~6–8 % after CEO remarks on AI market share growth; conversely, Nvidia Corporation edged lower after SoftBank Group’s ~$5.8 billion stake sale triggered caution.
• Fixed Income: While yields remained relatively muted, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York noted that Treasury market liquidity has degraded somewhat — bid-ask spreads widened and depth thinned.
• Commodities/FX: The U.S. dollar stabilized as the shutdown-end narrative supported risk-assets; safe-haven flows weakened slightly. Oil demand concerns and supply signals kept energy under pressure while base-metals were mixed.

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Economic & Policy Context

• The U.S. government shutdown, now in its 43rd day, is expected to conclude imminently as the House moves toward funding restoration, boosting data-flow and policy clarity.
• Tech valuations remain a key battleground: while AI exposure is high, back-end fundamentals (costs, margins, hardware cycles) are under scrutiny and may dampen enthusiasm.
• Treasury market liquidity again flagged: Despite stable yields, depth and price-impact measures suggest structural strains — a hidden risk for global asset-pricing behaviour.

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Tactical & Strategic Insight

• Tactical (0-3 months): With the reopening narrative playing out, selective cyclicals and industrials may benefit, but investors should hedge tech exposure and watch liquidity cracks.
• Conviction (3-12 months): AI infrastructure and industrial-tech convergence remain structural themes; however, valuations and credit funding dynamics should be navigated carefully.
• Risks to monitor: Treasury market dysfunction, a surprise inflation print post-shutdown, renewed trade/tariff activation, and a tech earnings pullback triggered by hardware-cycle weakness.

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Bernd Pulch Commentary

“Relief trades are always fragile until the plumbing holds. Right now, we’re watching two pipes: the reopening of government and the underlying liquidity system. One may open with a flourish — the other may already be leaking in silence.”

For full-scope briefs, intelligence dossiers, portfolio models and early-release alerts, visit: 👉 patreon.com/investment

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Ausblick (Deutsch)

Die Aussicht auf das Ende des US-Shutdowns bringt kurzfristig eine positive Risikowelle, aber die Märkte erinnern sich – nicht alle Erleichterungs-Trades halten. Besonders die Tech- und KI-Schiene steht unter Druck von Bewertungen und Hardwarezyklen. Mittel- bis langfristig bleiben Liquidität, Refinanzierung und Bewertung die wahren Koordinaten.

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Tags (English)

Investment Digest, Global Markets, S&P 500, Dow Jones, Tech Stocks, AI Infrastructure, Treasury Liquidity, Government Shutdown, Commodities, FX, Market Strategy, Bernd Pulch, Patreon Exclusive

Tags (Deutsch)

Investment Digest, Weltmärkte, S&P 500, Dow Jones, Technologieaktien, KI-Infrastruktur, Treasury-Liquidität, Regierungs­schließung, Rohstoffe, Devisen, Marktstrategie, Bernd Pulch, Patreon Exklusiv

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