By Bernd Pulch
February 13, 2026
Everyone’s got a short list. Most of them are garbage.
I’ve spent twenty years on the short side. I’ve been early, wrong, squeezed, and vindicated. The difference between survival and blowing up isn’t the thesisโit’s the execution.
Here’s what I’m actually short right now, why, and exactly how I’m doing it.
The Three Things Every Short Must Have
Before I touch a short, I run it through three filters:
- Can I borrow it? Doesn’t matter how right I am if the stock isn’t available.
- What’s the cost? A 50% borrow fee means I’m bleeding before I start.
- Where’s the exit? If I’m wrong, I need to know when I’m wrong.
Everything else is noise.
Short #1: Vonovia SE (VNA.DE)
The Setup
German real estate is drowning. โฌ200 billion in commercial debt matures in 2026. Refinancing at 5-6% when your assets yield 3% is a math problem with only one answer.
Vonovia is Germany’s largest residential landlord. But they also own commercial. When commercial cracks, sentiment drags the whole sector. The stock has already fallen 40% from its highs. It’s going lower.
The Execution
ยท Ticker: VNA.DE
ยท Current Price: โฌ28.40
ยท Target: โฌ22.00
ยท Stop-Loss: โฌ31.00
ยท Borrow Fee: 1.8%
ยท Position Size: 3% of capital
Why This Works
Vonovia is liquid. I can actually short it. The borrow cost is manageable. The catalyst is comingโQ2 earnings will force writedowns on their commercial book.
The Risk
Government intervention. If Berlin announces a rescue package for real estate, this trade blows up. My stop catches it.
Short #2: New York Community Bancorp (NYCB)
The Setup
Office vacancy in major cities is 20%+. Regional banks hold 40-60% of commercial real estate loans. NYCB has the highest concentration.
When loans go bad, banks set aside provisions. Provisions hit earnings. Earnings misses hit stock prices. Simple math.
The Execution
ยท Ticker: NYCB
ยท Current Price: $8.40
ยท Target: $5.00
ยท Stop-Loss: $10.50
ยท Borrow Fee: 2.1%
ยท Position Size: 2.5% of capital
Why This Works
NYCB is the poster child for CRE exposure. Every analyst knows it. That doesn’t make them wrongโit makes the trade crowded. I size smaller because the short interest is already high.
The Risk
A Fed pivot. If rates drop 100 basis points, refinancing becomes easier and banks rally. My stop keeps me honest.
Short #3: Unity Software (U)
The Setup
Zero-rate stimulus is gone. Companies burning cash face reality: raise capital at punishing rates or die.
Unity trades at 4x sales. Down from 30x, but still expensive for a company losing money with no clear path to profitability. Growth is slowing. Losses continue. The multiple has further to compress.
The Execution
ยท Ticker: U
ยท Current Price: $24.50
ยท Target: $15.00
ยท Stop-Loss: $30.00
ยท Borrow Fee: 3.8%
ยท Position Size: 2% of capital
Why This Works
Unity is a basket case in a sector that’s out of favor. When unprofitable tech corrects, the weakest names get hit hardest. Unity is weak.
The Risk
A buyout. Some private equity firm could decide it’s cheap and take it private. It’s happened before. I size accordingly.
Short #4: KRE (Regional Bank ETF)
The Setup
I don’t always trust myself to pick the right single bank. Sometimes I want sector exposure without single-stock risk.
KRE holds all the regional banks with CRE exposure. If the sector cracks, KRE cracks.
The Execution
ยท Ticker: KRE
ยท Current Price: $51.20
ยท Target: $42.00
ยท Stop-Loss: $56.00
ยท Borrow Fee: 1.2%
ยท Position Size: 4% of capital
Why This Works
Diversification. I’m not betting on NYCB’s management or loan book. I’m betting on a sector-wide repricing. Borrow is cheap. Liquidity is abundant.
The Risk
The ETF holds some good banks too. If the strong ones hold up while the weak ones fall, KRE won’t drop as much as I want. It’s the cost of diversification.
Short #5: Super Micro Computer (SMCI) โ Via Puts, Not Stock
The Setup
Accounting investigation. Auditor resignation. Potential delisting. This is a binary event.
But the borrow fee is 50%+. Shorting the stock directly means losing 4% per month just to hold it. That’s stupid.
The Execution
ยท Ticker: SMCI
ยท Current Price: $32.00
ยท Position: Buy June $25 puts
ยท Put Price: $3.20
ยท Break-even: $21.80
ยท Max Loss: $3.20 per share (the premium)
ยท Position Size: 1.5% of capital (options lever up)
Why This Works
Puts cap my risk. If the stock rallies to $50, I lose the premium and walk away. No unlimited downside. No borrow cost bleeding.
The Risk
Time decay. If nothing happens before June, the options expire worthless. I need a catalyst within four months.
The Rules I Never Break
Rule 1: Size Small or Die
Every short on this list is 2-4% of capital. Combined, they’re under 15%. Shorts can go to zero on the upside. Position size is my only defense.
Rule 2: Stops Are Sacred
I set every stop before I enter. I don’t move them. I don’t “wait and see.” When a short moves against me, it can accelerate fast. A 20% loss today becomes a 50% loss tomorrow.
Rule 3: Borrow Cost Matters
If the borrow fee eats my expected return, I don’t take the trade. SMCI is a perfect exampleโ50% borrow means the stock has to drop 25% in six months just for me to break even after fees. That’s why I use puts instead.
Rule 4: No Herding
If everyone’s shorting it, I size smaller or stay out. Crowded trades reverse violently. January 2026 proved thatโheavily shorted stocks rallied 7% in five days as shorts covered for tax reasons.
Rule 5: Isolated Margin Only
When I margin trade, I use isolated margin. Cross margin can cascadeโone losing position liquidates to cover another, and suddenly my whole account blows up. Isolated keeps the damage contained.
What I’m Watching Next
These aren’t trades yet. They’re on the radar.
Chinese ADRs: Delisting risk is real. Borrow costs are punishing. But if the trigger pulls, downside could be 50%+.
Consumer Discretionary: Weakening trends, high inventory, discounting starting. Names like Peloton and Wayfair are showing signs of cracking.
Office REITs: SL Green, Vornado, Boston Properties. Vacancy is structural. Remote work isn’t reversing. These are slow-motion car crashes.
The Bottom Line
Short selling isn’t about being right. It’s about being right and surviving.
The AI reports flooding your inbox have 92% confidence and zero execution. They can’t borrow a share. They can’t calculate a stop. They can’t tell you whether a stock actually trades.
I can.
These are my shorts. Real tickers. Real borrow. Real stops. The thesis might be wrongโit happensโbut the execution is sound.
That’s the difference between gambling and trading.
Want real-time updates on these positions? Join the community at patreon.com/berndpulch
Bernd Pulch (M.A.) is a forensic expert, founder of Aristotle AI, entrepreneur, political commentator, satirist, and investigative journalist covering lawfare, media control, investment, real estate, and geopolitics. His work examines how legal systems are weaponized, how capital flows shape policy, how artificial intelligence concentrates power, and what democracy loses when courts and markets become battlefields. Active in the German and international media landscape, his analyses appear regularly on this platform.
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