ไธญๅฝๅธๅบ้ๅจ๏ผ้ถ่กๅๅใไธๅ็ฃไฝ่ฟทไธ็ปๆต็ดงๅผ / ไธญๅฝๅธๅ ดใฎๆบใ๏ผ้่กใฎๅงๅใไธๅ็ฃไฝ่ฟทใ็ตๆธ็็ทๅผต
“Floating Lanterns Light Up a Shuttered Street: Hope Flickers Amid Chinaโs Financial Turmoil / ๅ ณ้ญ็่ก้ไธๆผๆตฎ็็ฏ็ฌผ๏ผไธญๅฝ้่ๅจ่กไธญ็ๅธๆไนๅ ”
BY BERND PULCH
Key Points
- It seems likely that 40 Chinese banks closed recently, mainly small rural lenders, due to property sector issues and local government debt, though exact details are unclear.
- Research suggests the worst-performing banks include rural banks like Jiangxi Bank and major ones like ICBC, facing high non-performing loans (NPLs).
- The evidence leans toward Chinese stocks, finance firms, and property firms like Evergrande being heavily impacted by economic slowdowns.
- The Chinese economy, especially property, appears to be in crisis, with prices dropping and recovery not expected until 2026, affecting global markets.
Recent Bank Closures
In July 2024, reports indicate that 40 Chinese banks, primarily small rural lenders, closed or were merged, with 36 absorbed by Liaoning Rural Commercial Bank and Jiangxi Bank collapsing amid customer panic. The exact list of these banks is not fully disclosed, reflecting China’s opaque financial system, but they were high-risk with significant exposure to real estate and local government debts.
Rankings of Worst Entities
Below are rankings based on available data, focusing on NPLs, profit declines, and sector exposure:
Worst Chinese Banks
- Rural Commercial Banks in Liaoning Province (NPL ratios up to 40%)
- Jiangxi Bank (collapsed in July 2024, profits down 30%)
- Henan Rural Banks (past scandals, deposit freezes)
- Inner Mongolia Small Banks (high risk from indebted regions)
- Big Five Banks (ICBC, CCB, BoC, AgBank, BoCom, with profit drops like ICBC -4%)
Worst Chinese Bank Stocks
- Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) (601398.SS, 4% profit drop, high local debt exposure)
- China Construction Bank (CCB) (601939.SS, 4% profit decline)
- Bank of China (BoC) (601988.SS, 2.9% profit drop, rising NPLs)
- Agricultural Bank of China (AgBank) (601288.SS, high NPL ratios)
- Hong Kong-Listed Banking Sector Index (.HSMBI, plummeted 10% in 2023)
Worst Finance Firms
- Local Government Financing Vehicles (LGFVs, $4.2 trillion debt, major bank risk)
- China Investment Corp (under anti-corruption scrutiny)
- China Renaissance (chairman disappeared in 2023, investor confidence shaken)
- Small-Scale Wealth Management Firms (tied to rural banks, real estate risks)
- Third-Party Auditors (lack of oversight exacerbates small bank risks)
Worst Property Firms
- China Evergrande (liquidated in 2024, massive debt default)
- Vanke (000002.SZ, shares down 19% from 2007 peak)
- Country Garden (struggling with debt repayments)
- Sunac China (defaulted on bonds, part of $1 trillion debt crisis)
- Kaisa Group (heavily indebted, defaults strained lenders)
Derivatives and Corporates
- Derivatives: China’s market is opaque, with banks exposed to property-linked products, posing systemic risks.
- Worst Corporates: State-owned enterprises in coal and steel face overcapacity, private firms tied to Evergrandeโs supply chain are defaulting.
Analysis of Chinese Economy and Property
Research suggests Chinaโs economy is struggling, with the property sectorโa key 13.4% of GDP since 2013โin crisis. Home prices are dropping, with recovery not expected until 2026 . Developer defaults like Evergrandeโs have left banks with high NPLs, up to 40% for some rural lenders. Local government debt, held by major banks, adds pressure, and the lack of a Financial Stability Law hinders crisis management. Exports are weak, consumer spending cautious, and U.S.-China trade tensions worsen the outlook, potentially slowing Chinaโs 5% growth target for 2025.
Survey Note: Detailed Analysis of Chinaโs Banking and Economic Crisis
Introduction
On May 16, 2025, reports from July 2024 highlight a significant banking crisis in China, with 40 banks closing or being merged in a single week, primarily small rural lenders. This event, coupled with ongoing economic challenges, particularly in the property sector, underscores systemic vulnerabilities. This note provides a comprehensive analysis, including a partial list of closed banks, rankings of worst-performing entities, and an in-depth look at the Chinese economy, focusing on property, based on available data from 2023-2025.
Recent Bank Closures and Context
The closure of 40 banks in July 2024, as reported by sources like 40 banks were closed in one week in China and Mergers and closures loom for China’s 3,800 rural banks, involved 36 banks absorbed by Liaoning Rural Commercial Bank and Jiangxi Bankโs collapse amid customer panic. These banks, averaging RMB 15 billion ($2.1 billion) in assets, were high-risk rural lenders with significant exposure to real estate and local government financing vehicles (LGFVs). The lack of a complete list reflects Chinaโs opaque financial system, a tactic seen in past crises like the 2022 Henan banking scandal, where depositors faced delays in compensation. This opacity suggests more closures among the 3,800 rural banks, holding $7.5 trillion in assets (13% of Chinaโs banking system), are possible.
Ranking of Worst-Performing Entities
The crisis reveals vulnerabilities across sectors, with rankings based on NPL ratios, profit declines, and exposure to troubled sectors like real estate and LGFVs.
Worst Chinese Banks
Table 1 lists the worst-performing banks, with rural banks leading due to high NPL ratios (up to 40% versus the industry average of 1.6%, per Let Chinaโs small banks failโ analyst) and collapses like Jiangxi Bank. Major banks like ICBC and CCB also face pressure, with Q1 2025 profit drops of 4% .
| Rank | Bank | Key Issue |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rural Commercial Banks in Liaoning Province | NPL ratios up to 40%, absorbed in mergers |
| 2 | Jiangxi Bank | Collapsed in July 2024, profits down 30% |
| 3 | Henan Rural Banks | Past scandals, deposit freezes |
| 4 | Inner Mongolia Small Banks | High risk from indebted regions |
| 5 | Big Five Banks (ICBC, CCB, BoC, AgBank, BoCom) | Profit drops (e.g., ICBC -4%), shrinking margins |
Worst Chinese Bank Stocks
Bank stocks, particularly those of major lenders, have been hit hard. ICBC (601398.SS) saw shares fall after a 4% profit drop, with exposure to $4.2 trillion in local government debt. The Hong Kong-Listed Banking Sector Index (.HSMBI) plummeted 10% in 2023 sessions after downgrades .
| Rank | Stock | Key Issue |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) | 4% profit drop, high local debt exposure |
| 2 | China Construction Bank (CCB) | 4% profit decline, narrowing margins |
| 3 | Bank of China (BoC) | 2.9% profit drop, rising NPLs |
| 4 | Agricultural Bank of China (AgBank) | High NPL ratios, property-related losses |
| 5 | Hong Kong-Listed Banking Sector Index | Plummeted 10% in 2023, post-downgrade |
Worst Finance Firms
Finance firms, especially those tied to LGFVs and shadow banking, face significant risks. LGFVs hold $4.2 trillion in debt, a major burden on banks. China Investment Corp is under scrutiny in Xi Jinpingโs anti-corruption campaign, while China Renaissanceโs chairman disappearance in 2023 shook investor confidence .
| Rank | Finance Firm | Key Issue |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Local Government Financing Vehicles (LGFVs) | $4.2 trillion debt, major bank risk |
| 2 | China Investment Corp | Under anti-corruption scrutiny |
| 3 | China Renaissance | Chairman disappeared in 2023, investor shakeup |
| 4 | Small-Scale Wealth Management Firms | Tied to rural banks, real estate risks |
| 5 | Third-Party Auditors | Lack of oversight, exacerbates small bank risks |
Worst Property Firms
The property sector, accounting for 13.4% of GDP since 2013, is in crisis, with developers like Evergrande ordered to liquidate in 2024, triggering banking losses. Vankeโs shares dropped 19% from their 2007 peak, and Country Garden struggles with debt repayments .
| Rank | Property Firm | Key Issue |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | China Evergrande | Liquidated in 2024, massive debt default |
| 2 | Vanke | Shares down 19% from 2007 peak |
| 3 | Country Garden | Struggling with debt repayments |
| 4 | Sunac China | Defaulted on bonds, part of $1 trillion crisis |
| 5 | Kaisa Group | Heavily indebted, defaults strained lenders |
Derivatives and Corporates
Chinaโs derivatives market is opaque, with banks exposed to property-linked financial products, posing systemic risks due to the lack of a robust bankruptcy framework. Corporates, especially state-owned enterprises in coal and steel, face overcapacity, increasing NPLs, while private firms tied to Evergrandeโs supply chain are defaulting .
Analysis of Chinese Economy and Property Sector
The Chinese economy, as of May 2025, is grappling with a structural slowdown, with the property sector in crisis. Home prices are dropping, with a 4.60% year-over-year decline in March 2025 , and recovery not expected until 2026 . Developer defaults have left banks with rising NPLs, up to 40% for some rural lenders, per Let Chinaโs small banks failโ analyst. LGFVs add pressure, with major banks holding $4.2 trillion in debt, and the absence of a Financial Stability Law, delayed in June 2024, hinders crisis management. Exports are weak, consumer spending cautious post-pandemic, and U.S.-China trade tensions, with rising tariffs, darken prospects, potentially slowing Chinaโs 5% growth target for 2025 . Xi Jinpingโs anti-corruption crackdown, targeting financial elites, aims to centralize control but risks spooking investors, while the governmentโs reluctance to let small banks fail, unlike Spainโs FROB model, reflects fears of social unrest, as seen in Henanโs 2022 protests.
Global Implications
A Chinese banking crisis could ripple globally, with $7.5 trillion in rural bank assets and the property sectorโs $1 trillion debt threatening stability. Tightened credit could curb investment and consumption, slowing growth, and reduced Chinese demand for commodities could depress global markets, destabilizing foreign investors holding Chinese bonds or equities .
Conclusion
The closure of 40 banks in July 2024 is a symptom of deeper malaise, with opaque governance, unchecked lending, and a property bubble creating a perfect storm. While consolidation buys time, structural reforms are needed to prevent further turbulence as Chinaโs economic engine sputters.
ไธญๅฝๅธๅบ้ๅจ๏ผ้ถ่กๅๅใไธๅ็ฃไฝ่ฟทไธ็ปๆต็ดงๅผ
ๅ ณ้ญ็่ก้ไธๆผๆตฎ็็ฏ็ฌผ๏ผไธญๅฝ้่ๅจ่กไธญ็ๅธๆไนๅ
้่ฆ่ฆ็น
- ๆช่ณ2025ๅนด5ๆ19ๆฅ๏ผไธญๅฝๆ่ฟๆชๆฅๅ้ๅคง้ถ่กๅ ณ้ญ๏ผไฝๆฎๅคง็บชๅ ๆฅ้๏ผ2024ๅนดๆ199ๅฎถไธญๅฐ้ถ่กๆณจ้๏ผๆพ็คบ้่ไฝ็ณป็่ๅผฑๆงใ
- ๆๅทฎ่กจ็ฐ็้ถ่กๅ ๆฌๅฐๆน้ถ่ก๏ผ่ฟไบ้ถ่กๅฏนไธ่ฏ่ดทๆฌพ๏ผNPL๏ผๅๅไธๆฟๅฐไบง๏ผCRE๏ผๆ้ซๆๅ ๅบฆ๏ผไปฅๅๅไธญๅฝๅ่่ฟๆ ท็ๅคงๅ่ตไบง็ฎก็ๅ ฌๅธ๏ผ้ขไธด่ตไบง่ดๅบ่กจ่จ่้ฎ้ขใ
- ่กๅธใ้่ๅ ฌๅธๅๆฟๅฐไบงๅ ฌๅธๅๅฐไธๅ็ฃไปทๅผไธ้ใ้ซๅฉ็ๅๅบๅฃ็ฒ่ฝฏ็ๅๅ๏ผๅๆๅคง่ฟๆ ท็ๅ ฌๅธๅทฒ่ฟ็บฆ๏ผๅ ๅงไบ็ปๆตๅฐๅขใ
- ไธญๅฝ็ปๆตๆพ็คบๅบ่ๅผฑๆง๏ผๆฟๅฐไบง่กไธๅฐคๅ ถๆฏCREๅคไบๅฑๆบไนไธญ๏ผๆถ่ดน็ฒ่ฝฏๅ่ดธๆๆ่ฟไธๆญฅๅ ๅงไบ้ฎ้ขใ
ๆ่ฟ็้ถ่กๅ ณ้ญ
ๆช่ณ2025ๅนด5ๆ19ๆฅ๏ผไธญๅฝๅฐๆช็ปๅ็ฑปไผผ2024ๅนด7ๆ40ๅฎถ้ถ่กๅ้ญ็ๅคง่งๆจก้ถ่กๅ ณ้ญๆตชๆฝฎใ็ถ่๏ผ้่็ณป็ปๆญฃๆฟๅๅทจๅคงๅๅใๆ นๆฎๅคง็บชๅ ็ๆฐๆฎ๏ผ2024ๅนดๆ199ๅฎถไธญๅฐ้ถ่ก่ขซๆณจ้๏ผๆพ็คบๅบๅฐๆน้ถ่ก็่ๅผฑๆงใไธญๅฝ็โๅๅคงโ่ตไบง็ฎก็ๅ ฌๅธโโไธญๅฝไฟก่พพใไธญๅฝๅ่ใไธญๅฝ้ฟๅๅไธญๅฝไธๆนโโ่ขซ็งฐไธบโ้่ๆช็ฉโ๏ผๅ ถ่ตไบง่ดๅบ่กจๅทฒ่จ่ๅฐ้ๅถๅ ถๆๅฉ่ฝๅ็็จๅบฆใๅ่ๅจ2021ๅนด4ๆ็้ฎ้ขๆพๅผๅๆ่ต่ ๅฏนไธญๅฝ็พๅ ๅบๅธๅธๅบ็ๆๆ ๏ผ่้ฟๅๅจ2022ๅนดๆจ่ฟๅๅธๅนดๅบฆๆฅๅ๏ผ่ฟไธๆญฅๆด้ฒไบ่กไธๅผฑ็นใๆๅคง็ญไธป่ฆๅผๅๅ็่ฟ็บฆๅผๅไบ่ฟ้ๅๅบ๏ผๅขๅ ไบไธ่ฏ่ดทๆฌพ๏ผๅจ่ๅฐๆดไธช้่ไฝ็ณปใ
ๆๅทฎ่กจ็ฐๅฎไฝ็ๆๅ
ไธญๅฝๆๅทฎ้ถ่ก
- ๅฐๆน้ถ่ก๏ผCRE้ซๆๅ ๏ผ๏ผไธ่ฏ่ดทๆฌพๆฏไพไธๅ๏ผๅฐคๅ ถๆฏๅไธๆฟๅฐไบง่ดทๆฌพใ
- ไธญๅฝๅ่่ตไบง็ฎก็ๅ ฌๅธ๏ผ่ตไบง่ดๅบ่กจ่จ่๏ผ2021ๅนด้ฎ้ขๅผๅๅบๅธๅธๅบๆๆ ใ
- ไธญๅฝ้ฟๅ่ตไบง็ฎก็ๅ ฌๅธ๏ผ2022ๅนดๆจ่ฟๅๅธๅนดๆฅ๏ผๆพ็คบ่ดขๅกๅๅใ
- ไธญๅฝไธๆน่ตไบง็ฎก็ๅ ฌๅธ๏ผๆฟๅฐไบงไธ่ฏๅบๅกๅค็่ฝๅๅ้ใ
- ไธญๅฐ้ถ่ก๏ผ2024ๅนด199ๅฎถ้ถ่กๆณจ้๏ผๅฐๆน็ปๆตไฝ่ฟทๅ ๅง้ฃ้ฉใ
ๆๅทฎ้ถ่ก่ก็ฅจ
- ไธญๅฝๅ่๏ผHuarong๏ผ๏ผ2021ๅนดๅบๅธไปทๆ ผๆด่ท๏ผๆ่ต่ ไฟกๅฟๅๆซใ
- ไธญๅฝ้ฟๅ๏ผGreat Wall๏ผ๏ผๆจ่ฟ่ดขๅกๆฅๅ๏ผๅบๅธไปทๆ ผๆณขๅจใ
- ไธญๅฝไฟก่พพ๏ผCinda๏ผ๏ผ2022ๅนด7ๆๅๅธ็ๅฉ้ข่ญฆ๏ผๅฉๆถฆไธ้30-35%ใ
- ๅฐๆน้ถ่กๆๆฐ๏ผๅๆ ไธญๅฐ้ถ่ก็ๆดไฝๅๅใ
- ไธญๅฝ้ถ่ก๏ผBank of China๏ผ๏ผๆฟๅฐไบง่ดทๆฌพ้ฃ้ฉไธๅใ
ๆๅทฎ้่ๅ ฌๅธ
- ๅฝฑๅญ้ถ่ก๏ผๅฏนไธญๅฝๆฟๅฐไบงๆณกๆฒซ็้ซ้ฃ้ฉๆ่ตใ
- ๅฐๆน่ตไบง็ฎก็ๅ ฌๅธ๏ผAMC๏ผ๏ผไธๅฐๆนๆฟๅบๅ ณ็ณปๅฏๅ๏ผไฝ่ฝๅๆ้ใ
- ้้ถ่ก่ดทๆฌพๆบๆ๏ผๆฟๅฐไบงๅธๅบไฝ่ฟทๅฏผ่ด่ฟ็บฆๅขๅ ใ
- ๅฏนๅฒๅบ้๏ผCREๆ่ต๏ผ๏ผไธๅ็ฃไปทๅผไธ้ๅฏผ่ดๆๅคฑใ
- ไฟ้ฉๅ ฌๅธ๏ผCRE็ปๅ๏ผ๏ผๆฟๅฐไบงไฝ่ฟทๅธฆๆฅ็ๆฝๅจๆๅคฑใ
ๆๅทฎๆฟๅฐไบงๅ ฌๅธ
- ไธญๅฝๆๅคง๏ผEvergrande๏ผ๏ผ่ฟ็บฆๅผๅๆฟๅฐไบงๅฑๆบ่ฟ้ๅๅบใ
- ่ๅไธญๅฝ๏ผSunac๏ผ๏ผ้ซๅบๅกๅๆตๅจๆง้ฎ้ขใ
- ็ขงๆกๅญ๏ผCountry Garden๏ผ๏ผ้ๅฎไธๆป๏ผ่ดขๅกๅๅๅขๅคงใ
- ไธ่้ๅข๏ผShimao Group๏ผ๏ผๆฟๅฐไบงๅธๅบไฝ่ฟทๅฏผ่ด่ฟ็บฆใ
- ไฝณๅ ไธ๏ผKaisa Group๏ผ๏ผๅๅฐ็็ฎก้ๅถๅ้ซๅบๅกๅฝฑๅใ
่ก็ๅๅไผไธ
- ่ก็ๅ๏ผ้ถ่กๆๆ็CRE็ธๅ ณ่ก็ๅ้ขไธดไปทๅผไธ้้ฃ้ฉใ
- ๆๅทฎไผไธ๏ผๅปบ็ญใๅปบๆๅๅฎถ็ต่กไธไผไธๅๅฐๆฟๅฐไบงไฝ่ฟท็ๅฒๅปใ
ไธญๅฝ็ปๆตไธๆฟๅฐไบง่กไธ็ๅๆ
2025ๅนด5ๆ๏ผไธญๅฝ็็ปๆตๅค่ๅๅฐๆฟๅฐไบงไฝ่ฟทๅๆถ่ดน็ฒ่ฝฏ็ๆ็ดฏใๆ นๆฎๅฝๅฎถ็ป่ฎกๅฑ็ๆฐๆฎ๏ผ2024ๅนด7ๆๆฟๅฐไบงๆ่ตๅๆฏไธ้10.2%๏ผๅปถ็ปญไบๅนดๅไปฅๆฅ็่ถๅฟใๆๅคง็ญๅผๅๅ็่ฟ็บฆๅฏผ่ดๆชๅฎๅทฅ้กน็ฎๆฟๅข๏ผๅฝฑๅไบๅปบ็ญใๅปบๆๅๅฎถ็ต็ญ็ธๅ ณ่กไธใๅฐๆนๆฟๅบ้่ฟๅคง่งๆจกๆฟๅฐไบงๅผๅ่ทๅฉ๏ผ้ซ็ไผฐ่ฎกไธบ8.4ไธไบฟ็พๅ ๏ผๅ GDP็่ฟ50%๏ผ๏ผไฝไปทๆ ผไธ่ทๅๅบๅญ่ฟๅฉๅ ๅงไบๅฑๆบใ2020ๅนด8ๆๆจๅบ็โไธๆก็บข็บฟโๆฟ็ญ้ๅถไบๅผๅๅ็ๅ่ดท๏ผๅฏผ่ด่ฎธๅคๅ ฌๅธ็ ดไบง๏ผ่ฟไธๆญฅๅไฝไบๆฟไปทใ
ๆถ่ดนๅข้ฟๆพ็ผ๏ผๅฑ ๆฐไฟกๅฟ่ๅผฑใ2025ๅนดๅ๏ผ้่ดง่จ่็ไธบ2.5%๏ผๅ ไธ่ดธๆๆ๏ผ็พไธญๅ ณ็จๆๅฐๅ ณ็จไป145%้่ณ30%๏ผๅฏผ่ดๅบๅฃไธ้๏ผไผ ็ปๅข้ฟๅผๆๅ้ปใ2024ๅนด4ๆ๏ผๆฐๅขไบบๆฐๅธ่ดทๆฌพไป 2800ไบฟๅ ๏ผๅๆฏๆด่ท61%๏ผ่ฟไฝไบๅธๅบ้ขๆ็7250ไบฟๅ ๏ผๆพ็คบ่ดทๆฌพ้ๆฑๅๅๅฒไฝ็นใๅฑ ๆฐๅจ่ไธญ็ๅฎๆๅญๆฌพๅ ๆฏๅๅๅฒๆฐ้ซ๏ผ่กจๆๆถ่ดน่ ไปๅคไบโๅปๆ ๆๅโ็ถๆใ
่ฐๆฅๆฅๅ๏ผไธญๅฝ้ถ่กไธ็ปๆตๆๆ็่ฏฆ็ปๅๆ
ๅผ่จ
ๆช่ณ2025ๅนด5ๆ19ๆฅ๏ผไธญๅฝๅฐๆช็ปๅ2024ๅนด7ๆ้ฃๆ ท็40ๅฎถ้ถ่กๅ้ญๅฑๆบ๏ผไฝๆฟๅฐไบงไฝ่ฟทใไธ่ฏ่ดทๆฌพๅขๅ ๅ็ปๆตๆพ็ผๅฏน้ถ่ก็ณป็ปๆๆๅจ่ใๆฌๆฅๅๅๆ้ถ่ก็่ๅผฑๆง๏ผๆๅๆๅทฎ่กจ็ฐ็ๅฎไฝ๏ผๅนถ่็ฆๆฟๅฐไบง่กไธ๏ผๆข่ฎจไธญๅฝ็ปๆต็ฐ็ถใ
ๆ่ฟ็้ถ่กๅ
ณ้ญไธ่ๆฏ
2024ๅนด199ๅฎถไธญๅฐ้ถ่กๆณจ้ๆพ็คบๅบ้่ไฝ็ณป็ๅๅใๅๅคง่ตไบง็ฎก็ๅ
ฌๅธ่ตไบง่ดๅบ่กจ่จ่๏ผ้ๅถไบๅ
ถๆๅฉ่ฝๅใๆๅคง่ฟ็บฆๅผๅ็่ฟ้ๅๅบๅขๅ ไบไธ่ฏ่ดทๆฌพ๏ผไธญๅฐ้ถ่กๅ ๅฐๆนๆฟๅฐไบงๅธๅบ็้ซๆๅ
ๅบฆ่ๅฐคไธบ่ๅผฑใ
ๆๅทฎ่กจ็ฐๅฎไฝ็ๆๅ
ๆๅทฎ้ถ่ก
| ๆๅ | ้ถ่ก | ไธป่ฆ้ฎ้ข |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | ๅฐๆน้ถ่ก๏ผCRE้ซๆๅ ๏ผ | ไธ่ฏ่ดทๆฌพๆฏไพไธๅ๏ผๆฟๅฐไบง่ดทๆฌพ้ฃ้ฉ้ซ |
| 2 | ไธญๅฝๅ่่ตไบง็ฎก็ๅ ฌๅธ | ่ตไบง่ดๅบ่กจ่จ่๏ผๅบๅธๅธๅบๆๆ |
| 3 | ไธญๅฝ้ฟๅ่ตไบง็ฎก็ๅ ฌๅธ | ๆจ่ฟ่ดขๅกๆฅๅ๏ผ่ดขๅกๅๅๆพ็ฐ |
| 4 | ไธญๅฝไธๆน่ตไบง็ฎก็ๅ ฌๅธ | ๆฟๅฐไบงไธ่ฏๅบๅกๅค็่ฝๅๅ้ |
| 5 | ไธญๅฐ้ถ่ก | 2024ๅนด199ๅฎถๆณจ้๏ผๅฐๆน็ปๆตไฝ่ฟทๅ ๅง้ฃ้ฉ |
ๆๅทฎ้ถ่ก่ก็ฅจ
| ๆๅ | ่ก็ฅจ | ไธป่ฆ้ฎ้ข |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | ไธญๅฝๅ่ | 2021ๅนดๅบๅธไปทๆ ผๆด่ท๏ผๆ่ต่ ไฟกๅฟๅๆซ |
| 2 | ไธญๅฝ้ฟๅ | ๆจ่ฟ่ดขๅกๆฅๅ๏ผๅบๅธไปทๆ ผๆณขๅจ |
| 3 | ไธญๅฝไฟก่พพ | 2022ๅนดๅฉๆถฆไธ้30-35% |
| 4 | ๅฐๆน้ถ่กๆๆฐ | ๅๆ ไธญๅฐ้ถ่ก็ๆดไฝๅๅ |
| 5 | ไธญๅฝ้ถ่ก | ๆฟๅฐไบง่ดทๆฌพ้ฃ้ฉไธๅ |
ๆๅทฎ้่ๅ ฌๅธ
| ๆๅ | ้่ๅ ฌๅธ | ไธป่ฆ้ฎ้ข |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | ๅฝฑๅญ้ถ่ก | ๆฟๅฐไบงๆณกๆฒซ้ซ้ฃ้ฉๆ่ต |
| 2 | ๅฐๆน่ตไบง็ฎก็ๅ ฌๅธ๏ผAMC๏ผ | ่ฝๅๆ้๏ผๅฐๆนๆฟๅบๅบๅกๅๅ |
| 3 | ้้ถ่ก่ดทๆฌพๆบๆ | ๆฟๅฐไบงๅธๅบไฝ่ฟทๅฏผ่ด่ฟ็บฆๅขๅ |
| 4 | ๅฏนๅฒๅบ้๏ผCREๆ่ต๏ผ | ไธๅ็ฃไปทๅผไธ้ๅฏผ่ดๆๅคฑ |
| 5 | ไฟ้ฉๅ ฌๅธ๏ผCRE็ปๅ๏ผ | ๆฟๅฐไบงไฝ่ฟทๅธฆๆฅ็ๆฝๅจๆๅคฑ |
ๆๅทฎๆฟๅฐไบงๅ ฌๅธ
| ๆๅ | ๆฟๅฐไบงๅ ฌๅธ | ไธป่ฆ้ฎ้ข |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | ไธญๅฝๆๅคง๏ผEvergrande๏ผ | ่ฟ็บฆๅผๅๆฟๅฐไบงๅฑๆบ่ฟ้ๅๅบ |
| 2 | ่ๅไธญๅฝ๏ผSunac๏ผ | ้ซๅบๅกๅๆตๅจๆง้ฎ้ข |
| 3 | ็ขงๆกๅญ๏ผCountry Garden๏ผ | ้ๅฎไธๆป๏ผ่ดขๅกๅๅๅขๅคง |
| 4 | ไธ่้ๅข๏ผShimao Group๏ผ | ๆฟๅฐไบงๅธๅบไฝ่ฟทๅฏผ่ด่ฟ็บฆ |
| 5 | ไฝณๅ ไธ๏ผKaisa Group๏ผ | ็็ฎก้ๅถๅ้ซๅบๅกๅฝฑๅ |
่ก็ๅๅไผไธ
- ่ก็ๅ๏ผ้ถ่กๆๆ็CRE็ธๅ ณ่ก็ๅ้ขไธดไปทๅผไธ้้ฃ้ฉใ
- ๆๅทฎไผไธ๏ผๅปบ็ญใๅปบๆๅๅฎถ็ต่กไธไผไธๅๅฐๆฟๅฐไบงไฝ่ฟท็ๅฒๅปใ
ไธญๅฝ็ปๆตไธๆฟๅฐไบง่กไธ็ๅๆ
2024ๅนด7ๆ๏ผๆฟๅฐไบงๆ่ตไธ้10.2%๏ผๆถ่ดน็ฒ่ฝฏๆ็ดฏ็ปๆตๅค่ใ่ดธๆๆๅๅบๅฃไธ้ๅๅผฑไบไผ ็ปๅข้ฟๅผๆ๏ผ่ๅฐๆนๆฟๅบๅบๅก๏ผๅ GDP็50%๏ผๅๅบๅญ่ฟๅฉๅ ๅงไบๅฑๆบใๅฑ
ๆฐไฟกๅฟไฝ่ฟท๏ผ่ดทๆฌพ้ๆฑๅๅๅฒไฝ็น๏ผๅฎๆๅญๆฌพๅ ๆฏๅๆฐ้ซใ
ๅ
จ็ๅฝฑๅ
ไธญๅฝ้่ไธ็จณๅฎๅฏ่ฝๆณขๅๅ
จ็ๅธๅบ๏ผๅบๅฃไธ้ๅฝฑๅ่ดธๆ๏ผ้ถ่ก็ณป็ปๅๅๅฏ่ฝๅฏผ่ดไฟก่ดท็ดง็ผฉ๏ผๅ็ผ็ปๆตๅข้ฟใๅค่ตๅฏ่ฝๅ ็ปๆตไธ็กฎๅฎๆงๆค็ฆปใ
็ป่ฎบ
ไธญๅฝ้ขไธดๆฟๅฐไบงไฝ่ฟทใไธ่ฏ่ดทๆฌพๅขๅ ๅ็ปๆตๆพ็ผ็้ๅคงๆๆใ้่ฆ็ปๆๆงๆน้ฉไปฅ่งฃๅณๅบๅก้ฎ้ขๅนถๆขๅคๅธๅบไฟกๅฟ๏ผๅฆๅ้่็ณป็ปๅฏ่ฝ้ขไธดๆดๅคง้ฃ้ฉใ
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ๆ ็ญพ๏ผ #ZendChinaFinance #ChinaEconomy #BankingPressure #PropertySlump #CRECrisis #NonPerformingLoans #Evergrande #Huarong #EconomicSlowdown #TradeWar #LocalBanks #FinancialStability #GlobalTrade #ChinaPropertyMarket #EconomicChallenges
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RESEARCH INFOS:
Key Citations
- 40 banks were closed in one week in China
- Mergers and closures loom for China’s 3,800 rural banks
- Let Chinaโs small banks failโ analyst
- China’s Big Five banks post slimmer margins as economic challenges persist
- Top Chinese banks’ profits stagnate, margins shrink as economy weighs
- Chinese Banksโ Ratings Downgraded as Local Governments Struggle With Debt
- China Property Crisis: What Is Happening to Vanke, Why Market Is Still a Mess
- China’s home prices to drop further, recovery not expected until 2026: Reuters poll
- China Newly Built House Prices YoY Change
- China Gets Worst 2025 Growth Forecast Yet With UBS Downgrade
- China Reels From Banking Crisis
- China Shadow Bankโs Collapse Shows Wealth Wipeout Is Deepening
Key Points
- It seems likely that 40 Chinese banks closed recently, mainly small rural lenders, due to property sector issues and local government debt, though exact details are unclear.
- Research suggests the worst-performing banks include rural banks like Jiangxi Bank and major ones like ICBC, facing high non-performing loans (NPLs).
- The evidence leans toward Chinese stocks, finance firms, and property firms like Evergrande being heavily impacted by economic slowdowns.
- The Chinese economy, especially property, appears to be in crisis, with prices dropping and recovery not expected until 2026, affecting global markets.
Recent Bank Closures
In July 2024, reports indicate that 40 Chinese banks, primarily small rural lenders, closed or were merged, with 36 absorbed by Liaoning Rural Commercial Bank and Jiangxi Bank collapsing amid customer panic. The exact list of these banks is not fully disclosed, reflecting China’s opaque financial system, but they were high-risk with significant exposure to real estate and local government debts.
Rankings of Worst Entities
Below are rankings based on available data, focusing on NPLs, profit declines, and sector exposure:
Worst Chinese Banks
- Rural Commercial Banks in Liaoning Province (NPL ratios up to 40%)
- Jiangxi Bank (collapsed in July 2024, profits down 30%)
- Henan Rural Banks (past scandals, deposit freezes)
- Inner Mongolia Small Banks (high risk from indebted regions)
- Big Five Banks (ICBC, CCB, BoC, AgBank, BoCom, with profit drops like ICBC -4%)
Worst Chinese Bank Stocks
- Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) (601398.SS, 4% profit drop, high local debt exposure)
- China Construction Bank (CCB) (601939.SS, 4% profit decline)
- Bank of China (BoC) (601988.SS, 2.9% profit drop, rising NPLs)
- Agricultural Bank of China (AgBank) (601288.SS, high NPL ratios)
- Hong Kong-Listed Banking Sector Index (.HSMBI, plummeted 10% in 2023)
Worst Finance Firms
- Local Government Financing Vehicles (LGFVs, $4.2 trillion debt, major bank risk)
- China Investment Corp (under anti-corruption scrutiny)
- China Renaissance (chairman disappeared in 2023, investor confidence shaken)
- Small-Scale Wealth Management Firms (tied to rural banks, real estate risks)
- Third-Party Auditors (lack of oversight exacerbates small bank risks)
Worst Property Firms
- China Evergrande (liquidated in 2024, massive debt default)
- Vanke (000002.SZ, shares down 19% from 2007 peak)
- Country Garden (struggling with debt repayments)
- Sunac China (defaulted on bonds, part of $1 trillion debt crisis)
- Kaisa Group (heavily indebted, defaults strained lenders)
Derivatives and Corporates
- Derivatives: China’s market is opaque, with banks exposed to property-linked products, posing systemic risks.
- Worst Corporates: State-owned enterprises in coal and steel face overcapacity, private firms tied to Evergrandeโs supply chain are defaulting.
Analysis of Chinese Economy and Property
Research suggests Chinaโs economy is struggling, with the property sectorโa key 13.4% of GDP since 2013โin crisis. Home prices are dropping, with recovery not expected until 2026 . Developer defaults like Evergrandeโs have left banks with high NPLs, up to 40% for some rural lenders. Local government debt, held by major banks, adds pressure, and the lack of a Financial Stability Law hinders crisis management. Exports are weak, consumer spending cautious, and U.S.-China trade tensions worsen the outlook, potentially slowing Chinaโs 5% growth target for 2025.
Survey Note: Detailed Analysis of Chinaโs Banking and Economic Crisis
Introduction
On May 16, 2025, reports from July 2024 highlight a significant banking crisis in China, with 40 banks closing or being merged in a single week, primarily small rural lenders. This event, coupled with ongoing economic challenges, particularly in the property sector, underscores systemic vulnerabilities. This note provides a comprehensive analysis, including a partial list of closed banks, rankings of worst-performing entities, and an in-depth look at the Chinese economy, focusing on property, based on available data from 2023-2025.
Recent Bank Closures and Context
The closure of 40 banks in July 2024, as reported by sources like 40 banks were closed in one week in China and Mergers and closures loom for China’s 3,800 rural banks, involved 36 banks absorbed by Liaoning Rural Commercial Bank and Jiangxi Bankโs collapse amid customer panic. These banks, averaging RMB 15 billion ($2.1 billion) in assets, were high-risk rural lenders with significant exposure to real estate and local government financing vehicles (LGFVs). The lack of a complete list reflects Chinaโs opaque financial system, a tactic seen in past crises like the 2022 Henan banking scandal, where depositors faced delays in compensation. This opacity suggests more closures among the 3,800 rural banks, holding $7.5 trillion in assets (13% of Chinaโs banking system), are possible.
Ranking of Worst-Performing Entities
The crisis reveals vulnerabilities across sectors, with rankings based on NPL ratios, profit declines, and exposure to troubled sectors like real estate and LGFVs.
Worst Chinese Banks
Table 1 lists the worst-performing banks, with rural banks leading due to high NPL ratios (up to 40% versus the industry average of 1.6%, per Let Chinaโs small banks failโ analyst) and collapses like Jiangxi Bank. Major banks like ICBC and CCB also face pressure, with Q1 2025 profit drops of 4% .
Rank
Bank
Key Issue
1
Rural Commercial Banks in Liaoning Province
NPL ratios up to 40%, absorbed in mergers
2
Jiangxi Bank
Collapsed in July 2024, profits down 30%
3
Henan Rural Banks
Past scandals, deposit freezes
4
Inner Mongolia Small Banks
High risk from indebted regions
5
Big Five Banks (ICBC, CCB, BoC, AgBank, BoCom)
Profit drops (e.g., ICBC -4%), shrinking margins
Worst Chinese Bank Stocks
Bank stocks, particularly those of major lenders, have been hit hard. ICBC (601398.SS) saw shares fall after a 4% profit drop, with exposure to $4.2 trillion in local government debt. The Hong Kong-Listed Banking Sector Index (.HSMBI) plummeted 10% in 2023 sessions after downgrades .
Rank
Stock
Key Issue
1
Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC)
4% profit drop, high local debt exposure
2
China Construction Bank (CCB)
4% profit decline, narrowing margins
3
Bank of China (BoC)
2.9% profit drop, rising NPLs
4
Agricultural Bank of China (AgBank)
High NPL ratios, property-related losses
5
Hong Kong-Listed Banking Sector Index
Plummeted 10% in 2023, post-downgrade
Worst Finance Firms
Finance firms, especially those tied to LGFVs and shadow banking, face significant risks. LGFVs hold $4.2 trillion in debt, a major burden on banks. China Investment Corp is under scrutiny in Xi Jinpingโs anti-corruption campaign, while China Renaissanceโs chairman disappearance in 2023 shook investor confidence .
Rank
Finance Firm
Key Issue
1
Local Government Financing Vehicles (LGFVs)
$4.2 trillion debt, major bank risk
2
China Investment Corp
Under anti-corruption scrutiny
3
China Renaissance
Chairman disappeared in 2023, investor shakeup
4
Small-Scale Wealth Management Firms
Tied to rural banks, real estate risks
5
Third-Party Auditors
Lack of oversight, exacerbates small bank risks
Worst Property Firms
The property sector, accounting for 13.4% of GDP since 2013, is in crisis, with developers like Evergrande ordered to liquidate in 2024, triggering banking losses. Vankeโs shares dropped 19% from their 2007 peak, and Country Garden struggles with debt repayments .
Rank
Property Firm
Key Issue
1
China Evergrande
Liquidated in 2024, massive debt default
2
Vanke
Shares down 19% from 2007 peak
3
Country Garden
Struggling with debt repayments
4
Sunac China
Defaulted on bonds, part of $1 trillion crisis
5
Kaisa Group
Heavily indebted, defaults strained lenders
Derivatives and Corporates
Chinaโs derivatives market is opaque, with banks exposed to property-linked financial products, posing systemic risks due to the lack of a robust bankruptcy framework. Corporates, especially state-owned enterprises in coal and steel, face overcapacity, increasing NPLs, while private firms tied to Evergrandeโs supply chain are defaulting .
Analysis of Chinese Economy and Property Sector
The Chinese economy, as of May 2025, is grappling with a structural slowdown, with the property sector in crisis. Home prices are dropping, with a 4.60% year-over-year decline in March 2025 , and recovery not expected until 2026 . Developer defaults have left banks with rising NPLs, up to 40% for some rural lenders, per Let Chinaโs small banks failโ analyst. LGFVs add pressure, with major banks holding $4.2 trillion in debt, and the absence of a Financial Stability Law, delayed in June 2024, hinders crisis management. Exports are weak, consumer spending cautious post-pandemic, and U.S.-China trade tensions, with rising tariffs, darken prospects, potentially slowing Chinaโs 5% growth target for 2025 . Xi Jinpingโs anti-corruption crackdown, targeting financial elites, aims to centralize control but risks spooking investors, while the governmentโs reluctance to let small banks fail, unlike Spainโs FROB model, reflects fears of social unrest, as seen in Henanโs 2022 protests.
Global Implications
A Chinese banking crisis could ripple globally, with $7.5 trillion in rural bank assets and the property sectorโs $1 trillion debt threatening stability. Tightened credit could curb investment and consumption, slowing growth, and reduced Chinese demand for commodities could depress global markets, destabilizing foreign investors holding Chinese bonds or equities .
Conclusion
The closure of 40 banks in July 2024 is a symptom of deeper malaise, with opaque governance, unchecked lending, and a property bubble creating a perfect storm. While consolidation buys time, structural reforms are needed to prevent further turbulence as Chinaโs economic engine sputters.
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Key Citations
- 40 banks were closed in one week in China
- Mergers and closures loom for China’s 3,800 rural banks
- Let Chinaโs small banks failโ analyst
- China’s Big Five banks post slimmer margins as economic challenges persist
- Top Chinese banks’ profits stagnate, margins shrink as economy weighs
- Chinese Banksโ Ratings Downgraded as Local Governments Struggle With Debt
- China Property Crisis: What Is Happening to Vanke, Why Market Is Still a Mess
- China’s home prices to drop further, recovery not expected until 2026: Reuters poll
- China Newly Built House Prices YoY Change
- China Gets Worst 2025 Growth Forecast Yet With UBS Downgrade
- China Reels From Banking Crisis
- China Shadow Bankโs Collapse Shows Wealth Wipeout Is Deepening
๐ BERND PULCH ARCHIVE | SECURE MIRROR 