Values for office, retail, and apartment buildings are already down -11%.

Morgan Stanley thinks values could crash -40% when all is said and done. Big problem for the US and European Economy.

🏦🇺🇸 Morgan Stanley thinks that US commercial real estate (CRE) delinquencies will surge after a 30% decline in office property values; almost $1.5trn of US CRE debt comes due before the end of 2025. This could easily cause a serious banking crisis, with the epicentre in regional banks (see chart, above, showing the concentration of CRE in regional banks). However, as we have said many times, it would also cause problems for cities, given their revenue reliance on real estate and commercial taxes (see table, below, showing NYC revenue breakdown).

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