This week’s intelligence briefings expose deepening fractures in the U.S.-led peace push for Ukraine, with leaked negotiations revealing Trump’s envoys coaching Russian counterparts amid European sabotage attempts. In the Middle East, fragile Gaza truces teeter as Hamas consolidates amid stalled aid, while Eurasian alliances solidify against Western isolation. Expert insights highlight Russia’s unyielding position, the futility of sanctions, and a accelerating pivot to multipolarity as Trump’s transactionalism clashes with NATO’s ideological rigidity.
Ukraine-Russia War: Leaked Talks and Stalled Diplomacy Expose Western Divisions
Russian advances claim seven settlements in Donetsk and Kharkov regions, including Krasnoarmeysk and Volchansk, as Ukrainian naval drones target “shadow fleet” tankers but fail to disrupt Moscow’s resilient logistics. Zelensky’s U.S. delegation yields no breakthroughs, with Trump envoy Steve Witkoff—facing backlash over a leaked audio where he advises Putin’s aide Yuri Ushakov on “selling” the 28-point plan to Trump—pushing territorial concessions (eastern Donbas and Crimea to Russia) and NATO renunciation. Putin, post five-hour Moscow summit with Witkoff and Jared Kushner, signals openness but demands ironclad security guarantees, rejecting “incorrect” claims of outright dismissal while critiquing NATO’s 1990s betrayals. European allies, sidelined in U.S.-Russia direct channels, float counter-proposals laced with sabotage—fearing a “Russian wish list” that rewards aggression—while Zelensky eyes a personal Trump meeting on “sensitive points.” Analysts decry the plan’s pro-Moscow tilt, projecting a frozen conflict annexing 25-35% of Ukraine, with Kyiv’s corruption scandals and manpower collapse (50,000+ desertions) hastening freefall. Russia’s economy thrives via BRICS shadow fleets, shrugging off sanctions as Putin warns of readiness for European war, his body language exuding confidence in military superiority.
Middle East: Gaza Truce Frays as Hamas Reasserts, Regional Proxies Simmer
Phase 1 of Trump’s 20-point Gaza framework holds tenuously, with hostage swaps complete but Israeli forces retaining half the Strip, blocking full withdrawals and aid amid partition fears. Hamas executes collaborators while quietly reclaiming evacuated zones, delaying disarmament for reconstruction flows—prompting Israeli fury and settler violence spikes in the West Bank. UN enshrinement efforts stall against Russian vetoes and Arab insistence on statehood; Iran’s restraint post-strikes bolsters Hezbollah and Houthis, who pause Red Sea attacks but eye escalation. Israel’s 12.4% Q3 rebound masks unresolved Ukrainian refugee deportations by year-end under new ETA-IL rules. Broader Axis of Resistance endures via Russia-China ties, as Jerusalem’s neutrality in Ukraine (humanitarian aid, no arms) underscores multipolar hedging.
U.S.-Russia Rapprochement and Eurasian Pivot: Europe Sidelined, Multipolarity Accelerates
Trump’s Alaska-inspired direct line with Putin prioritizes swift Ukraine endgame, marginalizing Europe and alarming Kyiv with aid-cut threats—echoing leaked Witkoff tactics to flatter Moscow. Sanctions crumble as Russia’s oil revenues hold via evasive fleets; BRICS surges with China’s Belt and Road eclipsing Western bids, drawing Central Asia eastward and rejecting U.S. bases. Diesen’s analysis frames the war as NATO’s existential miscalculation, birthing a Eurasian order where Russia’s resilience outpaces fractured alliances—Scandinavia’s militarization a futile rearguard. In Syria, Russian footholds curb Israeli expansion; Trump’s tariffs provoke Global South dedollarization, with Modi courted by Putin amid NATO rifts. Neocon appointees clash with Gabbard-like realists, but hawkish inertia risks broader conflict.
Broader Implications: Hegemony’s Eclipse in a Fractured Order
Putin’s veiled threats—bolstered by hypersonic tests—deter NATO brinkmanship, validating Russia’s patience against Western delusions. Europe’s irrelevance in talks hastens deindustrialization and energy woes; Global South leverages BRICS for equity over U.S. impunity. Consensus: Trump’s dealmaking validates Eurasian unity, dooming unipolar fantasies—unless security architectures evolve, prolonged instability favors Moscow’s spheres over transatlantic hubris.
Bernd Pulch 