✅ INVESTMENT THE ORIGINAL – DAILY DIGEST — 26 November 2025
By Bernd Pulch — Investment: The Original
📍 patreon.com/investment
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Markets rallied into the Thanksgiving holiday on stronger-than-expected risk appetite driven by rising Fed-cut odds after dovish Fed commentary and softer US data. Equities advanced broadly, gold pushed higher on rate-cut pricing, bond yields fell and bitcoin traded in a firm consolidation range.
KEY MARKET MOVEMENTS (TODAY) — DATA & IMPACT
- Equities: U.S. benchmarks closed higher — Dow +1.4%, S&P 500 +0.9%, Nasdaq +0.7% — marking a fourth consecutive up day for global equities as risk sentiment improved. Regional breadth widened with small-caps catching up.
- Bonds / Rates: 10-year U.S. Treasury yields moved lower (fresh two-way swings around ~4.0%), as markets priced a greater chance of Fed easing in coming months. Lower yields fed directly into equities and gold strength.
- Gold & Precious Metals: Spot gold rose toward a near two-week high — spot around $4,156.89/oz — as rate-cut expectations and a weaker dollar supported safe-haven demand. Deutsche Bank revised its 2026 gold outlook higher, underscoring structural buyer interest.
- FX: The dollar softened on the Fed-cut repricing; EUR/USD firmed from recent lows while JPY remained pressured. Comments from NY Fed and other officials helped shift market positioning toward easing expectations.
- Crypto: Bitcoin traded in a consolidation band near $87k–$90k with intraday recovery episodes; flows show continued institutional participation but subdued volatility versus prior weeks.
MACRO & POLICY UPDATE — WHY MARKETS MOVED
- Fed chatter: Dovish comments from regional Fed officials (notably NY Fed President John Williams and others) materially increased the probability that markets assign to a December or early-2026 cut — a driving force behind lower yields and higher risk assets. Markets moved quickly to reprice easing into the curve.
- Data backdrop: Softer retail sales and mixed PPI/PCE whispers reinforced the view that inflation is trending down slowly — supporting the narrative that Fed can cut once softness is confirmed. The policy path remains data-dependent and fragile.
SECTOR & THEMES — WHAT TO OWN / WATCH
- Buy (tactically): Large-cap cyclicals (select industrials), bank stocks (on yield-curve stability), gold miners with low production costs.
- Watch: AI/semiconductor names — recovery is underway but remains valuation-sensitive; any hawkish tilt will re-test support levels.
- Risk assets to hedge: High-beta small caps and speculative crypto leverage — both vulnerable to a sudden Fed hawk surprise or renewed liquidity squeeze.
MARKET FLOWS (NOTABLE FIGURES)
- Equity inflows: Positive across major ETF channels this week (week-to-date net inflows into US equity ETFs).
- Gold flows: Strong ETF and central-bank purchases underpinning gold demand (recent two-day inflows among the largest since spring).
- Crypto ETPs / futures: Net positive but modest inflows; open interest in BTC futures ticked up as spot consolidated.
RISK MAP — NEAR-TERM TO WATCH
- Fed minutes / official rhetoric — any re-hardening of hawkish language could quickly reverse the rally.
- Inflation datapoints (PCE, CPI revisions) — persistent prints above expectations would reprice rates higher.
- Geopolitics — supply-shock risk to oil remains a wildcard (Red Sea / Middle East hotspots).
- Crypto liquidation cascades — watch funding rates and concentrated futures positions.
INVESTMENT THE ORIGINAL — PATREON EDITION (COPY & PASTE)
🔥 PATREON — FULL EXTENDED BRIEF (26 NOVEMBER 2025)
This is the subscriber-only Extended Brief for patrons of Investment: The Original — full data packs, charts and trade models.
What you get in today’s full pack (patrons only):
- Full intraday tape & institutional flow charts (US futures, ETF flows, global equity & bond desk heatmaps)
- 12-page “Fed-Cut Probability” model with sensitivity analysis (how a 25bp vs 50bp surprise moves each asset class)
- Gold demand matrix (ETF flows, central bank buys, fabrications vs supply balance)
- Crypto risk dashboard (open interest, funding, top-of-book concentrations, whale flow tracker)
- Sector rotation tables with ranked entry/exit bands (AI, semiconductors, banks, energy)
- Proprietary Liquidity Stress Indicator (LSI) with triggers and portfolio actions
- Quick trade ideas (tickers + risk controls) with modelled P&L and stop logic
Access now: 👉 https://www.patreon.com/investment
Patrons also receive early access to special reports, archived files and monthly Q&A sessions with the editorial desk.
QUICK TAKE — HOW WE ARE POSITIONED (TACTICAL)
- Cash / hedges: 5–10% in short-dated T-bills or cash equivalents.
- Equities: Overweight high-quality cyclicals and select financials.
- Fixed income: Short-duration IG for yield preservation; opportunistic long duration via selected Treasuries if PCE disappoints.
- Commodities: Gold overweight; selective exposure to industrial metals on China-data signals.
- Crypto: Small opportunistic exposure (risk-managed, size capped).
SOURCES & FURTHER READING (KEY LOAD-BEARING)
- Wall Street ends higher as Fed-cut bets gather momentum.
- Global stocks climb for a fourth day as Fed cut expectations persist.
- Gold hits a near two-week high as rate-cut bets intensify.
- NY Fed Williams and other officials boost cut odds — market reaction and commentary.
- Bitcoin price and short-term flow dynamics.
🇩🇪🔥 Investment: The Original – Markt-Digest vom 26. November 2025
Von Bernd Pulch – „Investment: The Original“
📍 patreon.com/investment
📌 KURZÜBERBLICK
Die Märkte zogen vor dem Thanksgiving-Feiertag kräftig an. Dovish-Signale der US-Notenbank, fallende Renditen, stärkerer Risikoappetit und ein fester Goldpreis bestimmten den Tag. Kryptowährungen konsolidierten stabil. 📈✨
📊 WICHTIGE MARKTBEWEGUNGEN (REALDATEN HEUTE)
- Aktien USA:
Dow +1,4 %, S&P 500 +0,9 %, Nasdaq +0,7 % – vierter Gewinntag in Folge. Breite Erholung auch bei Small Caps. 📈🟢 - Anleihen & Zinsen:
Die 10-jährigen US-Treasuries fielen in Richtung 4,0 %. Die Märkte preisen verstärkt frühere Fed-Zinssenkungen ein. 🏦⬇️ - Gold:
Gold stieg auf rund 4.156,89 $/oz – nahe 2-Wochen-Hoch. Getragen von fallenden Renditen & schwächerem Dollar. ✨🪙 - Devisen:
EUR/USD erholte sich leicht, während der Yen schwach blieb. Der Dollar gab nach Fed-Kommentaren nach. 💱🔄 - Krypto:
Bitcoin stabilisierte sich im Bereich 87.000–90.000 $. Institutionelle Zuflüsse bleiben positiv. ₿🚀
🌍 MAKRO & POLITIK – WARUM DIE MÄRKTE STEIGEN
- Fed-Signale:
Dovish-Kommentare von NY-Fed-Chef John Williams und weiteren Mitgliedern erhöhten die Wahrscheinlichkeit einer Zinssenkung Anfang 2026. 💬🕊️ - Datenlage:
Schwächere US-Konsum- und gemischte Produzentenpreisdaten unterstützen die Erwartung fallender Inflation. CPI/PCE bleiben entscheidend. 📉📊
🏭 SEKTOREN & THEMEN – WO DIE CHANCEN LIEGEN
- Kaufargumente:
Qualitäts-Industriewerte, große Finanzwerte, Goldminen mit niedrigen Kosten. 🏭🏦🪙 - Beobachten:
AI-Aktien & Halbleiter – Erholung läuft, aber Bewertungen hochsensibel. 🤖💻 - Risiko:
Hochbeta-Small Caps & gehebelte Kryptopositionen bleiben anfällig. ⚠️🔥
💵 MARKTFLOWS – WOHIN BEWEGT SICH DAS GELD?
- Aktien-ETFs: Starke Nettozuflüsse diese Woche. 📥📈
- Gold-ETFs: Zwei der stärksten Inflow-Tage seit Monaten. ✨📥
- Krypto-ETPs: Positive, aber moderate Nettozuflüsse. ₿➡️📈
🚨 RISIKOKARTE – WAS KANN DEN TREND BRECHEN?
- Neue Fed-Kommentare oder hawkisher Ton 🏦⚠️
- PCE-/CPI-Überraschungen 🔥
- Geopolitische Schocks (Öl, Lieferketten) 🌍🔥
- Crypto-Liquidationen bei Überhebelung ⚡₿
🧠 TAKTISCHE POSITIONIERUNG
- Cash/Hedges: 5–10 %
- Aktien: Übergewicht Qualitäts-Zykliker & ausgewählte Banken
- Anleihen: Kurzlaufende IG; optional Langläufer bei schwachem PCE
- Gold: Übergewicht
- Krypto: Kleine, risikoarme Allokation
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Für Unterstützer gibt es heute u. a.:
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⭐ Crypto-Risiko-Dashboard (OI, Funding, Whale-Tracker)
⭐ Sektor-Rotationslisten mit Entry/Exit-Bändern
⭐ Proprietärer Liquidity Stress Indicator (LSI)
⭐ 8 sofort umsetzbare Trade-Ideen mit Stops
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