INVESTMENT THE ORIGINAL DIGEST NOVEMBER 17/18 2025✌INVESTMENT DAS ORIGINAL 17./18. NOVEMBER 2025 FOUNDED IN 2000 ANNO DOMINI✌

📈 INVESTMENT & MARKETS DIGEST — 17 NOVEMBER

1️⃣ MACRO OVERVIEW

  • Global sentiment mixed, with markets digesting conflicting macro signals while awaiting fresh US inflation and EU business climate data later this week.
  • US yields slightly softer, improving risk appetite but not enough to trigger a broad rally.
  • Energy markets stabilizing, with crude showing narrow trading ranges after last week’s volatility.
  • FX markets calm, but EUR shows mild weakness against USD due to softer industrial output.

2️⃣ EQUITIES

US

  • Futures flat to marginally positive.
  • Investors continue rotating out of unprofitable tech into cash-flow-stable sectors (utilities, industrials, staples).
  • Elevated options hedging as funds reduce short-term risk.

Europe

  • EU indices open cautious.
  • Banks and insurers modestly positive as yields stabilize.
  • Real estate continues to price in tighter refinancing conditions.

Asia

  • Mixed session: Japan strong on exports, China flat with ongoing credit-sector concerns.

3️⃣ FIXED INCOME

  • US 10Y slightly lower, demand for duration improving.
  • Corporate spreads steady; high-yield issuance selective.
  • Europe trades in tight ranges with mild demand in the periphery.

4️⃣ COMMODITIES

  • Oil consolidating after last week’s volatility.
  • Gold steady with safe-haven interest intact.
  • Copper stable; nickel weak on oversupply themes.

5️⃣ FOREX

  • USD marginally firmer as liquidity preference stays elevated.
  • EUR soft but stable.
  • JPY range-bound despite BOJ commentary.

6️⃣ CRYPTO

  • BTC holding recent gains with compressed volatility.
  • ETH sees rotation into higher-quality large caps.
  • Altcoins quiet.

7️⃣ SECTOR WATCH

  • Tech: Cautious tone, with markets prioritising profitability.
  • Energy: Stable but directionless.
  • Financials: Slight benefit from yield stability.
  • Real Estate: Under continuing valuation pressure.

8️⃣ KEY RISKS TO WATCH

  • Macro data surprises.
  • Sudden yield volatility in US Treasuries.
  • China credit-sector stress events.
  • USD-driven FX shifts.

9️⃣ OPPORTUNITY RADAR

  • Large-cap defensives with pricing power.
  • Short-duration bonds for yield stability.
  • Cash-flow-positive energy names.
  • Oversold industrial leaders.

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📈 INVESTMENT & MARKETS DIGEST — 17 NOVEMBER 2025

1️⃣ GLOBAL MACRO OUTLOOK

United States

  • Investors position ahead of upcoming FOMC minutes and fresh inflation expectations surveys.
  • Consumer sentiment continues to soften, with discretionary spending indicators weakening for the third consecutive week.
  • Corporate America signals margin compression in Q4 due to higher input costs and slowing top-line revenue growth.
  • Fed officials maintain a cautious tone: “higher for longer still applies”, though markets continue pricing cuts for mid-2026.

Europe

  • Eurozone growth remains pressured: latest data shows industrial output -0.3% MoM, the fifth negative reading in six months.
  • Germany: continued weakness in manufacturing orders, particularly autos and chemicals.
  • France: service sector stabilizing but business confidence remains muted.
  • Italy/Spain: mild strength in tourism-driven activity, but inflation stubborn in food and services.

Asia

  • Japan: export growth strong due to automotive and semiconductor machinery; yen volatility subdued.
  • China: property sector stress persists; local governments announce mini-stimulus programs to support SMEs.
  • South Korea: chip exports accelerating, driven by global AI server demand.

2️⃣ EQUITY MARKETS

United States

  • S&P 500 futures flat, indicating consolidation after prior volatility.
  • Mega-cap tech sees rotation into quality: Apple, Microsoft, and Nvidia hold steady while speculative AI names retreat.
  • Energy sector stabilizes as crude prices hold support levels.
  • Financials gain slightly from improving credit conditions.

Market breadth remains weak, with fewer than 40% of S&P stocks trading above their 50-day moving average.

Europe

  • Stoxx 600 modestly higher, supported by financials and select industrials.
  • Real estate and construction continue under heavy pressure due to refinancing risks and cost inflation.
  • Export-heavy names benefit from EUR softness.

Asia Session

  • Nikkei 225 gains on chip machinery and robotics stocks.
  • Hang Seng flat as investors await policy direction in China.
  • ASX 200 weighed down by mining names.

3️⃣ FIXED INCOME & CREDIT

Sovereigns

  • US 10Y yields slightly down as investors seek duration after last week’s heavy selling.
  • Yield curve remains deeply inverted: markets expect financial stress in coming quarters.
  • Bund yields edge lower; ECB’s restrictive stance continues to slow loan growth across Europe.

Credit Markets

  • Investment-grade spreads stable and near multi-month tights.
  • High-yield issuance remains selective, with only top-quality borrowers able to place new deals at acceptable yields.
  • Distressed debt levels rising quietly, particularly in:
    • commercial real estate
    • small-cap industrials
    • cyclical consumer sectors

4️⃣ COMMODITIES

Oil

  • Brent trades narrowly as markets wait for inventory updates and OPEC+ guidance.
  • Supply from the US remains strong; refinery utilization rates at seasonal highs.

Gold

  • Maintains bid from geopolitical hedging and uncertainty around Fed policy timing.
  • Central bank buying remains a supportive force.

Metals

  • Copper stable due to mixed industrial demand.
  • Nickel under pressure from oversupply, especially Indonesian production.

Agriculture

  • Grain prices flat; weather patterns normalizing after prior volatility.
  • Coffee and cocoa remain elevated on supply disruptions.

5️⃣ FOREIGN EXCHANGE

Major Pairs

  • EUR/USD slightly weaker amid Germany’s industrial recession.
  • USD/JPY stable; BOJ reiterates intervention readiness but refrains from action.
  • GBP/USD steady as UK inflation data shows slow improvement.

Emerging Markets

  • Mixed performance; commodity-linked currencies stabilize with oil.
  • Asian FX strong relative to LatAm, which remains tied to political risk.

6️⃣ CRYPTO MARKETS

  • Bitcoin consolidates near recent highs; ETF inflow momentum slowing but still positive.
  • Ethereum stabilizes with traders increasingly focused on network upgrades planned for early 2026.
  • Stablecoin flows show rising preference for major exchanges over DeFi.
  • Regulatory environment remains quiet but uncertain as US prepares new disclosure frameworks.

7️⃣ SECTOR SNAPSHOT

Technology

  • Profitability now the dominant theme; buyers avoid high-burn-rate AI startups.
  • Semiconductors remain structurally strong due to server demand for AI workloads.

Financials

  • Benefit from stabilized yields; credit quality remains mixed.
  • Regional banks under scrutiny due to real estate exposures.

Energy

  • Consolidation continues; oil services show relative strength.
  • Renewables face margin pressure from rising financing costs.

Industrial & Transport

  • Freight and logistics improve modestly; shipping rates remain elevated but stable.

Healthcare

  • Biotech flat; large-cap pharma sees rotation as defensive play.

8️⃣ RISK MONITOR

Top risks currently tracked:

  • Liquidity shocks in US funding markets
  • China property developer credit events
  • Energy price spikes from geopolitical developments
  • Sudden repricing in global bonds
  • Weakening corporate earnings momentum
  • Consumer demand softening into year-end

9️⃣ OPPORTUNITY FRAMEWORK

Potential positioning themes:

  • Defensive quality (consumer staples, healthcare majors)
  • Short-duration investment-grade credit
  • AI infrastructure beneficiaries (chips, servers, data centers)
  • Value in cash-flow-rich energy names
  • Selective EM exposure (Korea, India)

INVESTMENT THE ORIGINAL — BY BERND PULCH

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Free from advertising, lobbying influence, or financial industry spin — focused solely on data, global signals, and real intelligence.


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Here’s a more detailed Investment-Original Digest for November 17, 2025, with quantified macro, credit, and liquidity inputs:


📈 INVESTMENT & MARKETS DIGEST — 17 NOVEMBER 2025

1️⃣ GLOBAL MACRO & LIQUIDITY RISKS

  • US Consumer Sentiment dropped sharply: the University of Michigan index fell to 50.3 in November (from 53.6 in October), its lowest since June 2022.
    • The Current Conditions component dropped to 52.3 (from 58.6).
    • Short-term inflation expectations ticked up to 4.7%, while long-term dropped slightly to 3.6%.
    • Capital Economics notes that the sharp sentiment decline is driven by shutdown fears and heightened risk aversion.
  • U.S. Economic Optimism: According to RealClearMarkets / TIPP, the 6-month outlook fell to 43.9 (from 48.3 prior), its weakest since early 2024.
    • Components broke down: Six-Month Economic Outlook dropped to 40.0, Personal Financial Outlook to 50.6, Confidence in Federal Policies to 41.1.
  • China Credit Conditions:
    • Total Social Financing (TSF) collapsed from CNY 3,530 billion in September to just CNY 810 billion in October.
    • The sharp drop signals a major contraction in new credit and liquidity pouring into the economy.
  • Eurozone Inflation Outlook: ECB Economic Bulletin projects headline CPI inflation could rise to 3.3% in 2026, up from 2.8% current base.
    • Persistent services inflation remains a core issue, and wage pressures are expected to sustain inflation risk.

2️⃣ CREDIT & FIXED INCOME

  • Credit Spreads Tense:
    • U.S. High-Yield spreads remain historically tight; latest Option-Adjusted Spread (OAS) at 281 bps according to Wedbush, near multi-year lows.
    • Investment-grade spreads also compressed: reports suggest they’re around 80–100 bps over Treasuries.
    • These levels could underprice risk given the macro fragility.
  • Treasury Curve:
    • Yield curve remains inverted; long-term rates are supported by sticky credit risk and safe-haven flows.
    • Persistent demand for duration in U.S. Treasuries as yield volatility remains a core risk factor.

3️⃣ CREDIT MARKETS LIQUIDITY

  • Despite macro stress, corporate bond liquidity remains odd: tight spreads and strong issuance suggest complacency.
  • Model-based research (Rossi / Spezzati) shows rising liquidity spread risk for defaultable bonds: as risk rises, bond liquidity may worsen substantially, especially for lower-rated credits.
  • This liquidity fragility could amplify credit market stress if risk repricing accelerates.

4️⃣ MARKET IMPLICATIONS & RISKS

  • The collapse in consumer sentiment, combined with liquidity stress, increases the risk of a demand shock: consumer spending could sharply contract if the shutdown or credit squeeze deepens.
  • Credit markets may look deceptively calm — but there is a structural risk: tight spreads + rising default risk + liquidity compression = a dangerous cocktail.
  • China’s dramatic drop in social financing raises questions about whether Beijing can meaningfully stimulate growth in 2026 without reigniting credit excess.

5️⃣ POSITIONING THEMES

  • Defensive Bonds: Short-duration IG paper may be more attractive if liquidity risks intensify.
  • Credit Hedging: Investors should consider credit protection (CDS, swaps) on HY bonds or selectively underweight low-quality issuers.
  • Safe Havens: Gold remains a core diversifier; central bank demand could support further accumulation.
  • Selective Carry: Opportunistic buy of high-cash flow energy or infrastructure names that can weather macro volatility.

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📈 INVESTMENT & MARKETS DIGEST — 17. NOVEMBER 2025

1️⃣ GLOBALER MAKRO- & LIQUIDITÄTS-ÜBERBLICK

  • US-Verbraucherstimmung bricht stark ein: Der University-of-Michigan-Index fiel im November auf 50,3 (zuvor 53,6) – den niedrigsten Wert seit Juni 2022.
    • Die Teilkomponente Current Conditions sank von 58,6 auf 52,3.
    • Kurzfristige Inflationserwartungen stiegen auf 4,7 %, während langfristige leicht auf 3,6 % fielen.
    • Ökonomen erklären den Absturz mit Angst vor einem Government Shutdown und wachsender Risikoaversion.
  • US-Wirtschaftsoptimismus (RealClearMarkets / TIPP) fiel auf 43,9 (zuvor 48,3) – tiefster Stand seit Anfang 2024.
    • Sechs-Monats-Ausblick: 40,0
    • Persönlicher Finanzausblick: 50,6
    • Vertrauen in die Wirtschaftspolitik: 41,1
  • China – Kreditklemme verschärft sich:
    • Die Gesamtfinanzierung der Wirtschaft (TSF) stürzte von 3.530 Mrd. CNY im September auf nur 810 Mrd. CNY im Oktober ab.
    • Ein dramatischer Liquiditätsentzug für Unternehmen und Kommunen.
  • Eurozone – Inflationsausblick:
    • Die EZB erwartet laut Wirtschaftsbericht für 2026 einen Anstieg der Inflation auf 3,3 % (aktuell 2,8 %).
    • Besonders hartnäckig bleibt der Preisdruck im Dienstleistungssektor.

2️⃣ ANLEIHEN & KREDITMÄRKTE

  • Kreditspreads bleiben gespannt:
    • US-High-Yield-Spread (OAS) liegt bei 281 Basispunkten – extrem niedrig angesichts der wachsenden Risiken.
    • Investment-Grade stabil bei 80–100 Basispunkten über Treasuries.
    • Diese engen Spreads spiegeln die realen Risiken kaum wider.
  • Zinsstrukturkurve:
    • Die US-Kurve bleibt stark invertiert – ein klassisches Rezessionssignal.
    • Nachfrage nach länger laufenden Treasuries steigt, da Anleger Volatilität absichern.

3️⃣ KREDITMARKT-LIQUIDITÄT

  • Trotz schwächerer Makrosignale bleibt die Liquidität am Unternehmensanleihemarkt unnatürlich stabil.
  • Neue Modelle zeigen jedoch steigende Liquiditätsspreads bei risikohaften Anleihen:
    • Höhere Ausfallwahrscheinlichkeit → schlechtere Handelbarkeit → potenziell explosive Marktbewegungen.
  • Besonders bedroht sind:
    • Hochverzinsliche Industrieanleihen
    • Gewerbeimmobilien-Refinanzierungen
    • Zyklische Konsumsektoren

4️⃣ MARKTAUSWIRKUNGEN & RISIKEN

  • Die Kombination aus einbrechender Verbraucherstimmung, enger Liquidität und globalem Wachstumsdruck erhöht die Wahrscheinlichkeit eines Nachfrageschocks.
  • Die Märkte wirken ruhig, doch die Risikopuffer schrumpfen:
    • Enge Kreditspreads
    • Steigende Default-Raten
    • Sinkende Unternehmensmargen
    • Restriktiver Kreditfluss in China
  • Ein Repricing im Kreditmarkt könnte abrupt und heftig ausfallen.

5️⃣ POSITIONIERUNGS-IDEEN

  • Defensiv orientierte Anleihen: Kurzfristige Investment-Grade-Bonds bieten Schutz bei Liquiditätsrisiken.
  • Kreditabsicherung: Nutzung von CDS oder strategischer Untergewichtung schwacher HY-Emittenten.
  • Gold als Versicherung: Stabile Nachfrage durch Zentralbanken bleibt ein starker Preistreiber.
  • Selektive Value-Titel: Energie- und Infrastrukturunternehmen mit starken Cashflows bleiben attraktiv.
  • Asien-Selektion: Korea und Indien bieten relative Widerstandskraft.

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