*November 16/17, 2025 – In a world drowning in manipulated polls and corporate media spin, prediction markets cut through the noise like a hot knife through butter. Powered by real money on the line, these platforms aggregate the collective bets of sharp traders worldwide, often proving more accurate than so-called “experts.” As the U.S. reopens its doors in a limited beta rollout this month, billions in volume have already flowed into markets on politics, crypto, sports, and global flashpoints. But beneath the surface? Whispers of insider games, map falsifications, and yield-farming schemes that could rewrite the rules of truth-seeking. We’ve scoured the latest data to report the top activ predictions as of today – no holds barred, no filters. What do the markets *really* see coming? Buckle up.*
Politics: Elections, Scandals, and Nobel Gamblespolitical arena is a battlefield of bets, where U.S. relaunch hype meets international intrigue. With the 2024 dust settled, eyes are on 2028 – but don’t sleep on the scandals and prizes in between.
- Chilean Presidential Election Winner (Resolves Post-Election, November 2025): Right-wing firebrand José Antonio Kast is crushing it at 68% odds to claim the presidency, while leftist contender Jeannette Jara lags at a dismal 18%. Traders smell a rout, betting on Kast’s momentum amid economic unrest – is this the death knell for socialist dreams in South America?
- Will Donald Trump Win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? (Resolves January 2026): Only 18% chance for the ultimate irony – Trump, the dealmaker, getting the nod from Oslo. With his Middle East brokering legacy still fresh, bettors are skeptical, but a surprise Abraham Accords sequel could flip the script. Peace through strength, or just more theater?
- JD Vance as 2028 Republican Nominee (Long-Term, Resolves 2028): Yield farmers are parking cash here for 4% APY on neutral positions, but directional bets hover around 25-30% for the Ohio senator. Trump’s heir apparent? Or a sacrificial lamb to the establishment?
- Trump Utters the N-Word in Public (November 2025 Specific): Odds spiked to 22% earlier this month on this explosive market, with $42K in bets. Mainstream outrage machine or calculated psyop? Traders aren’t buying full meltdown, but the volume screams “watch this space.”
Dark horse alert: Ukraine war markets are boiling, with accusations flying that the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) faked a map advance on Mirnograd to sway resolutions – potentially netting insiders millions. Money volumes hit seven figures on city captures; if true, this is the smoking gun on how “reliable sources” rig the game.
Crypto: Bitcoin’s Wild Ride to 2025 Glory?
Forget CNBC pump-and-dumps – Market traders are wagering big on BTC’s trajectory, with November’s market alone pulling $26M in volume.
- What Price Will Bitcoin Hit in November 2025? (Resolves December 1, 2025): The motherlode. Bets cluster around $90K-$100K peaks, but with Cathie Wood’s $200K bull call echoing, upside tails wag at 15% for six figures. Volume: $26.6M. Liquidity’s deep, but volatility could torch the bears.
- What Price Will Bitcoin Hit in 2025? (Year-End Resolution): Broader bets peg the annual high at $150K max, with a floor near $50K amid regulatory storms. Experts whisper ETF inflows and halving afterglow, but global crackdowns loom. Traders give 60% odds for $100K+ – moonshot or rug pull?
Polymarket’s crypto edge? It’s not just gambling; it’s the ultimate sentiment oracle, outpacing Bloomberg terminals for raw crowd alpha.
Sports & UFC: Fists, Fields, and Underdog Edges
Fresh off a blockbuster UFC partnership – making Polymarket the official prediction market for fights and Zuffa Boxing – sports volumes are exploding. PrizePicks collab amps the daily fantasy crossover.
- UFC 322: Islam Makhachev vs. Jack Della Maddalena (Resolved November 16, 2025): Makhachev dominated at 73% pre-fight odds, snagging the welterweight belt alongside his lightweight crown. Grappling clinic over striking fireworks – Dagestani wrestling pays dividends. Post-fight, markets nailed it again; next challenger odds already bubbling at 40% for a rematch.
- NFL: Green Bay Packers vs. New York Giants (November 16, 2025): Giants moneyline at 55%, with prop edges on unders for receptions (Bellinger 1.5, Tracy 2.5, Robinson 5.5). Tempo control favors the underdogs – $200-to-$2K challenge starters are piling in.
- NFL: Baltimore Ravens vs. Cleveland Browns (November 16, 2025): Browns upset at 52%, banking on run-game clock control and Jeudy under 3.5 receptions. Quinshon Judkins props add juice – value hunters smell blood.
- UEFA Qualifiers: Serbia vs. Latvia (November 16, 2025): Serbia stomps at 85%, part of road-to-500$ challenges. Low-risk euro bets, high-volume liquidity.
Soccer, NBA, NHL – Polymarket’s sports desk is a degen’s paradise, with Onyx Odds exclusive contracts fueling the fire.
Economy & Misc: Recession Whispers and Weather Weirding
- Chance of U.S. Recession in 2025 (Resolves End-2025): Down to a razor-thin 4.05% as of yesterday – traders bet on soft landing, but Fed whispers and tariff wars could spike it overnight. $Billions at stake; this one’s the canary in the coal mine.
- Will Polymarket Go Live in the U.S. in 2025? (Resolves December 31, 2025): 92% yes, with beta already rolling. CFTC scars heal, but Kalshi and Truth Predict lurk as rivals.
Niche plays: Weather markets nail London temps at 50°F exact (79% confidence), while tools like NevuaMarkets automate alerts for whales. And that 4% yield hack? Delta-neutral parking for long-dated shares – chads only.
The Deep State Angle: Manipulation or Market Magic?
Polymarket isn’t flawless – ISW’s alleged map-tampering reeks of deep-state meddling in Ukraine bets, potentially costing traders millions. Partnerships with UFC and PrizePicks scream mainstream laundering, but the raw odds? They expose what polls bury. As volumes hit billions in 2025, is this the people’s truth serum or just another casino for elites?
Stay vigilant, BerndPulch readers. Bet wisely, question everything. These markets don’t lie – but who controls the resolvers? Drop your takes in the comments. Sources linked; DYOR.
This article compiles public Polymarket data as of November 16, 2025. NFA – not financial advice. For full markets, hit polymarket.com.
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