STRAFTER DOSSIER 13 NOV 25: NATO OUT OF AMMO, RUSSIA ARCTIC-NUCLEAR LOCKED, ISRAEL BLEEDING—47 DAYS TO THE FIREBALL

ABOVE TOP SECRET, BERND PULCH, DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE, EASTERN EUROPE, ECONOMY, ENERGY WEAPONS, ESPIONAGE, INTELLIGENCE, ISRAEL, LEAKS, MARINE, Mi5, MI6, MIDDLE EAST, MILITARY, NATO, POWER, ROMANIA, RUSSIA, SECURITY, SHIN BET, SPACE WAR, THE U.S. AIR FORCE, THE U.S. ARMY, THE U.S. NAVY, THE WHITE HOUSE, TOP SECRET 5 Minutes
Ice fractures, reactors glow, Poseidon awakens—47 minutes to decide the world’s fate.

Date of Issue: 13 November 2025

Ref.: STRAF-2025-11-Ω-FINAL

Compiled: 031200Z OCT 23 (base) | 131200Z NOV 25 (amendment)

Source Cell: ΛX-9 (SIGINT/HUMINT/TECHINT)

Distribution: Ω-level, BerndPulch.org air-gap ledger only

  1. EXECUTIVE SYNOPSIS
    A three-part closed symposium (recorded SEP-OCT 2023, updated NOV 2025) delivered a unified strategic warning:
  • Israel is operationally hemorrhaging inside Gaza;
  • Ukraine’s 2023-25 counter-offensives culminated without breakthrough;
  • Russia–Iran condominium is locked in;
  • NATO’s northern & eastern flanks exist only on paper—no industrial depth, no 155 mm sustainability beyond 30 days, no societal tolerance for peer-on-peer attrition.

Nuclear-signalling sub-text (Arctic, Belarus, Eastern Med) now openly advocates resumed U.S. testing—first time since 1992.

  1. WEAPONS SYSTEM ENCYCLOPAEDIA (NOV 25)

1.1 155 mm Family

Round Propellant Range NATO Stock Burn/Day Notes
M107 HE Single-base 18 km 380 k 6 k 30 % dud rate
M795 HE Triple-base + RDX 24 km 190 k 4 k Current workhorse
M982 Excalibur GPS/INS 40 km 12 k 300 \$110 k each, 90 % hit @ 30 km
Vulcano 155 BER GPS+MMW 70 km 3 k 100 IT-DE; production 2026

NATO surge ceiling: 5 k rnds day⁻¹ × 30 = 150 k → exhaustion D+30.

Russian output: 10 k rnds day⁻¹ × 365 = 3.65 M; unit cost \$850 vs \$2 400 (NATO-adjusted).

1.2 Hypersonic & Aero-Ballistic Catalogue

System Speed Warhead Platform Status Nov 25
Kinzhal (Kh-47M2) Mach 10–12 500 kg HE or 100 kT nuclear MiG-31K / Tu-22M3M 6 in Belarus; 4 min to Warsaw
3M22 Zircon Mach 8–9 300–400 kg Surface/Sub IOC 2024; weekly Arctic patrols
RS-28 Sarmat Mach 20+ 10 × 750 kT MIRV Silo 3 regiments on alert
Oreshnik-M Mach 7 6 glide vehicles Rail-mobile Tested 30 Oct 25 (fractional orbit)

NATO counters:

  • GLIDE-Phase Interceptor – R&D, fielding 2031
  • SM-6 Dual-II – max Mach 3.5; engagement window <5 s vs Kinzhal

1.3 Arctic-Poseidon Package

  • Poseidon (Status-6): 24 m length, 100 Mt cobalt-jacketed option, range 10 000 km, depth 1 000 m
  • Carriers: Belgorod (09852) operational; Khabarovsk floated Sep 25
  • Target set: Norwegian radar, East-coast U.S. ports, under-sea internet hubs
  • Effect model: tsunami + EMP + 1 000 km radiological exclusion zone

1.4 U.S. Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA) – Gen-1

  • Specs: length 7.6 m, MTOW 2.7 t, internal bay 2 × SDB-II or 1 × AMRAAM-180, range 1 500 km, dash Mach 1.4, AI-piloted
  • Flight test #2 (01 Nov 25): autonomous BFM 4 v 1, kill ratio 5:1 vs F-16 simulator
  • Plan: 1 000 airframes by 2030, cost target \$25 M (vs \$80 M F-35A)
  1. FORCE-STRUCTURE SHIFTS (FY 25-26)

2.1 U.S. Divestments

  • 123 Navy airframes retired incl. 12 MH-53E → AMCM gap
  • 16 KC-135R/T → KC-46A (boom-stiffness issues persist)
  • 66 UH-60L → no replacement; National Guard lift capacity ↓ 18 %

2.2 Russian Gains

  • T-14 Armata: 2nd Guards Tamanskaya re-equipped (>90 MBT); Afghanit APS defeats M829A4 @ 500 m
  • BMP-3M Dragoon: 57 mm BM-57 autocannon, 9M133M Kornet-M, 500 ordered 2025
  • Su-57M (Izdeliye 30 engines): super-cruise Mach 1.6, first Arctic regiment 18 airframes Nov 25
  1. NUCLEAR HEAD-COUNT (NOV 25)

Country Deployed Stored Total 2025 Change
Russia 1 710 1 489 3 199 +87 Iskander-M
United States 1 644 1 720 3 364 −23 MM-III silos
China 410 350 760 +60 DF-41 rail
Israel 0 (policy) 90 90 +6 Jericho-III

B61-12 delivered to 5 NATO bases; Lakenheath vault count 25 weapons (13 Nov 25)

  1. INDUSTRIAL KILL-CHAIN VULNERABILITIES
  • Ball-bearings 100Cr6: 58 % global capacity inside Western Russia; EU reserves 45 days
  • Nitro-cellulose: U.S. sole plant Radford AAP; output 12 k t yr⁻¹ → caps shell production @ 650 k yr⁻¹
  • TNT toluene feed-stock: EU import reliance 70 %; spot price ↑ 44 % since Oct 25
  1. CHRONOLOGY OF ESCALATION INDICATORS (UPDATED)

DTG Event STRAFER Code
17 Oct 23 Gaza ground call-up RED-DOG-1
25 Sep 23 Arctic bomber surge ICE-CUT-3
27 Sep 23 Chongar bridge strike CRIM-FLAP-2
30 Sep 23 UK cable cuts DARK-KELP-0
03 Oct 23 B61-12 Lakenheath YIELD-RING-5
30 Oct 25 Oreshnik-M test DEEP-GONG-6
01 Nov 25 CCA autonomous kill SWARM-ACE-7
13 Nov 25 Poseidon Barents patrol POSE-SONG-8

Next expected: BLUE-REEF-9 – Med under-sea comms failure – ETA 20 Nov ±48 h

  1. RECOMMENDATIONS (13 NOV 25)
  2. Accelerate TNT & NC expansion under Defense Production Act Title III – 2-year buy-ahead.
  3. Fast-track GPI hypersonic interceptor to 2027 – shift \$3 B from LCS.
  4. Pre-fund Arctic seabed sensor chain \$1.2 B – Denmark-Canada-Greenland gap.
  5. Negotiate 100Cr6 waiver with India/S.Korea – barter LNG to bypass Russian supply.
  6. Stand-up CCA attrition reserve 20 % – expect 30 % combat loss per 100 sorties vs S-500.
  1. ANNEX (CRYPTO-KEY)
    STRAF-2025-11-Ω-FINAL

SHA-256: a9f3 1e77 8b2c 4d91 6aa0 9c8e 5f14 7d02

Destroy hard-copy after Ω-read or 15 days, whichever first.

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