A year after the eruption of the Syrian uprising, Lieutenant Colonel Dr. Mordechai Kedar examines the continuation of the struggle, and claims that Assad will fall sooner or later
This week marked a year since the start of the Syrian uprisings. However, despite assessments that claimed his regime would end within several months, Assad remains in power, and the final results of the internal Syrian conflict are still unclear.
According to Lieutenant Colonel (Res.) Dr. Mordechai Kedar, Assad will eventually be defeated. Even if it takes more time, he will eventually vacate his position, whether if it happens in the framework of an agreement, or due to defeat at the hands of the rebels. “He will bleed, he will kick, but it’s the end. People will not agree to continue with him after massacring 10,000 people, even if it happens in a month, two months, or a year. He’s in a state similar to a terminal illness – he can take all sorts of measures to bring calm for a period, but he will eventually be subdued.
“The situation has completely changed. The Kurds can almost smell their freedom, and they’re waiting for the Arab factions in Syria to do all the work – the more they slaughter each other, the more the Kurds’ situation will improve.
“Assad will be toppled when the military units direct the tank barrels towards him. Officers, soldiers, and even small units have defected so far, but they are few. We’ve yet to see tank regiments defect, along with their ammunition bases and logistical layout. As soon as units with large combat forces defect and turn against Assad, that will mark the end. It’s heading in that direction – the question is if it’s going in that direction fast enough. The West is not interfering because it fears Russia and China, and Syria is not Libya. The Russians didn’t have a port in Libya, whereas they have three ports in Syria – Latakia, Tartus, and Baniyas. These are their only ports on the Mediterranean Sea, which means that from their perspective, losing Syria poses a strategic problem. Furthermore, the fall of Syria would greatly anger Iran, which may result in Iran causing problems in the gulf.
You don’t see a scenario in which Assad subdues the rebels, and as a result, ends up strengthened?
“Even if that were to happen, the riots would eventually erupt again at some point. You can’t turn back time, and when it erupts again, it will be even stronger. What we are seeing in the Youtube videos is nothing compared to what they are actually experiencing there – women are being viciously raped and people are being massacred everywhere. Members of a military unit break into the house of the head of a village, seize his eldest daughter, and rape her.”
**Dr. Mordechai Kedar is an expert in Middle Eastern affairs, a Lt. Colonel reservist, and research associate at the BESA Center for Strategic Studies at Bar-Ilan University.
Bernd Pulch 